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Perspectives on a Changing World Order
Achieving these objectives—governing the global commons,
facilitating economic exchanges, and managing international secu-
rity—has required numerous agreements, treaties, conventions, and
international institutions. For example, managing the global commons
required the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the
Paris Agreement, the Antarctic Treaty System, and the Outer Space
Treaty. The World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the International Organization
for Standardization, the Group of Twenty (G20), and many other such
institutions support the international economic order. The security
order has been based on the UN Security Council, Nuclear Nonprolif-
eration Treaty (NPT), and alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO), among a multitude of bilateral, regional, and
international agreements.
Of these three concepts, global governance has evolved the most
since the end of the Cold War. UNCLOS has been imposed, an inter-
national climate change agreement has been finalized, and other such
institutions have been strengthened. However, these agreements are
under increasing stress, including from the world’s second most power-
ful country, China. China has claimed territory in the South China Sea,
tested anti-satellite systems at high altitudes, developed potential dual-
use facilities in Antarctica, and created the Great Firewall to limit inter-
net access. Of course, the United States has not helped matters either,
failing to ratify UNCLOS and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement
on climate change.
In speed and scale, China’s rise and, to a lesser degree, India’s, is with-
out precedent. In U.S. dollars, the proportion of gross domestic product
(GDP) between the United States, the big three European economies
(France, Germany, and the United Kingdom), Japan, India, and China
in 2000 was roughly 20–10–10–1–3. By 2018, it was 8–4–2–1–5. If
the change between 2008 and 2018 is sustained for another decade, by
2028 it would be roughly 4–2–1–1–6. A great leveling of global economic
power—if not diplomatic and military strength—is underway.
The international economic order faces obstacles, most notably
stagnation at the WTO, both the Doha Development Round of nego-
tiations and the hollowing out of dispute-resolution mechanisms.
Moreover, in the absence of reform of the Bretton Woods institutions,
China, India, and others have begun to create parallel structures. These
include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New
Development Bank, which was created by Brazil, Russia, India, China,
and South Africa (BRICS). The G20 parallels the Group of Seven,