• Implementation: Assumptions about how UNCT
interventions should be designed and targeted in
order to deliver the intended results for the
intended target groups.
• External factors: Assumptions about the influence
of issues outside the area of work that can facilitate
or hinder the expected change.
For each assumption the UNCT identifies in the theory of
change, it should consider:
• Does this fully explain what is thought will
happen? If not, it may be necessary to refine the
assumption or the identified solution, or add new
assumptions to explain the expected change
process fully.
• Is the assumption plausible? Do the available
evidence and the views and experience of UN and
other stakeholders indicate that this assumption is
likely to hold true in practice?
• Does the assumption need to be tested? Is
further evidence needed as to whether change
happens in the way assumed in this context, e.g.,
with an evaluation or by monitoring this closely
during implementation?
Embedding risk analysis in a theory of change is also a
crucial and challenging element of design, but exploring
assumptions first can help in the identification of the risks.
Often assumptions and risks are inversely related. For
example, if it is assumed that employment services must
be targeted towards vulnerable households in order to
contribute towards reducing poverty, we might define a
risk around the possibility that employment services are
not properly targeted to reach vulnerable households. A
theory of change approach encourages consideration of
various types of potential risks, including:
• Environmental and political: Political risks from
larger developments in the country such as
elections and stakeholder sensitivities around
particular issues and programmatic areas; high
levels of turnover in policy and mid-level positions
in government; disaster risk, changes in national
policies or sharp fluctuations in commodity prices.
• Opportunities: Is the UNCT positioned to take
advantage of future opportunities that may
positively impact the achievement of results?
• Design: Difficulties might exist in targeting new
and/or prioritizing specific groups and locations,
such as the lack of data or access; there may be
questions around the ability to retain flexibility to
rethink approaches and strategies when presented
with new data from monitoring or external sources.
• Partnerships: Possible conflicts or tensions among
the perspectives, interests and demands of
partners; ability to incorporate new partnerships
when opportunities arise.
During the preparation of a theory of change, it is not
always possible to anticipate and prepare for the full
range of risks. But it is essential to isolate the most
important ones so that when certain risks materialize, the
UNCT can revise assumptions and adapt the theory of
change and the related strategy. Identifying relevant risks
at the start of the UNDAF also helps design suitable
strategies that can help manage those risks, so that the
UNCT is better able to take advantage of new
opportunities and mitigate threats.
STEP 4: IDENTIFY PARTNERS AND KEY
ACTORS
Identify partners and actors by revisiting each result,
including the related risks and assumptions. Focus in
particular on key actors likely to have a direct role in
determining the success or failure of the change effort,
and partners with whom the UNCT will work most directly
to bring about change. For instance, contributions from
other partners as identified in the funding to financing
analysis should be reflected in the overall solution tree,
even if these are not something the UNCT will work on
directly. This helps to identify the key linkages and
enablers for achieving the SDGs.
The UNCT should identify specific members able to work
on different results based on their mandates, capacity and
available resources. The theory of change should help
clarify which UN entity does what, in which areas two or
more entities are expected to work together, where
collaboration is necessary to achieve the expected
change, and how to avoid overlapping to maximize the
use of available resources.
Following this, it should be evident if there are elements
of the proposed theory of change that are vital to the
success of all or part of the UNDAF, but which the UN is
not able to address directly through its programming
work. These elements of the theory of change may not
appear directly in the UNDAF results framework, but they
need to be recognized as factors that can affect the
achievement of the UNDAF results. The UNCT may also
identify opportunities to address them through other
engagement strategies in the UNDAF, such as through
awareness-raising and advocacy, in order to leverage the
resources and capacities of non-UN partners (including
civil society and the private sector).