Deng Xiaoping and one-child policy
Key Ideas from Documents 7–9
Historical Circumstances Impacts of Policy on China or a region
Doc 7—Policy approved by Fifth National People’s
Congress (NPC) to keep population to 1.2 billion by
end of century, encouraging one child for all (1980)
New numerical mode of political reasoning about
population embodied in open letter
Grave population-economy-environment crisis
publicized in open letter from Central Committee to
members of the Party and Communist Youth League
Population 1.3 billion in 20 years, over 1.5 billion in
40 years with average of 2.2 children per couple
Probability that Four Modernizations made more
difficult with population growth
Predictions about impacts of population growth
(standard of living hurt, difficulties in education an d
employment, energy, water, forest, and other
resources overtaxed)
Predictions that environmental pollution, production
conditions, and living environment aggravated by
population growth
Doc 7—Efforts to keep population at 1.2 billion by
end of century
Doc 8—Reports of female infanticide/abandonment,
rise in violence against women giving birth to girls
Ingrained sex bias (in urban as well as rural areas;
across socioeconomic and educational status)
Failure of propaganda campaign denouncing feudal
preferences for sons over daughters
Promotion of girls to continue the family line
Use of billboards for propaganda
Doc 9—Some economists and investors worrying
about
long-term financial and economic pressures
Threat of aging population to China’s economy
because of shrinking demand
One-third of population to be over 60 by 2050
Strain on government’s budget and benefits for older
citizens
Dwindling labor force likely to continue
Question of sustaining China’s economic boom
while
paying for pensions and health insurance programs
Drop in working-age population for first time in 2012
Working-age population down 3.7 million from 2013
Increase in birthrate possibly offsetting decline in
working-age population if policy changed
New pressures on economy with children out of labor
force and in school
Relevant Outside Information
(This list is not all-inclusive.)
Historical Circumstances Impacts of Policy on China or a region
Practice of Confucian obligations of a son diminished
under early communism
Adoption of policies by Mao that sometimes promoted
large families and sometimes promoted small
families
Adoption of policies by Deng to increase wealth and
power of China through economic reform
Details about Four Modernizations
Details about Mao and communism
Material incentives to promote the policy
Declining fertility rates in urban a reas
Underreporting of female births
Variations in policy practices in rural areas and in
autonomous regions
Fines/limited food rations/loss of employment for
families violating the policy
Possible wage raises and other benefits to families
who accepted one-child limit