Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION .................................................................... 12

1.1 Country Background ................................................................................................ 12

1.2 Project Background .................................................................................................. 13

1.3 Objectives ................................................................................................................ 17

2. NATIONAL REGULATIONS AND INCENTIVES FOR FUEL EFFCIENT AND

ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY VEHICLES ...................................................................... 18

2.1 Policy & Strategy, Legal, Institutional & Regulatory Framework .......................... 18

2.2 Vehicles Import Customs Duties & Applicable Taxes and Incentives .................... 21

2.2.1 Customs Duties & Taxes ..................................................................................... 21

2.2.2 Incentives ............................................................................................................. 24

2.3 Vehicles Registration & Inspection System ............................................................ 27

2.3.1 Vehicles Registration System .............................................................................. 27

2.3.2 Vehicles Inspection System ................................................................................. 29

2.4 Ethiopia’s International Obligation/Participation .................................................... 29

2.5 Formulation of Draft Regulations ............................................................................ 30

2.5.1 Statutory Legislative Process ............................................................................... 30

2.5.2 Non-Statutory Legislative Process ....................................................................... 31

2.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 32

3. BASELINE SETTING FOR VEHICLE EFFICIENCY.................................................. 34

IMPROVEMENT AND EMISSION REDUCTION ............................................................... 34

3.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 34

3.1.1 Objective .............................................................................................................. 34

3.1.2 Data Attributes ..................................................................................................... 35

3.1.3 Data Collection .................................................................................................... 35

3.1.4 Data Cleaning....................................................................................................... 36

3.2 Baseline Setting ....................................................................................................... 38

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

3.3 Estimating Baseline Fuel Economy ......................................................................... 43

3.3.1 Average Fuel Economy and Annual Emission for New Vehicles ....................... 46

3.3.2 Average Fuel Economy and Annual Emission Considering Age of Vehicle ...... 48

3.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 51

4. VEHICLE STOCK STATISTICS ................................................................................... 52

4.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 52

4.1.1 Data Collection .................................................................................................... 52

4.1.2 Classifications ...................................................................................................... 52

4.1.3 Data Cleaning....................................................................................................... 54

4.1.4 Parameters for Data Cleaning .............................................................................. 55

4.2 Vehicle Stock Analysis in Addis Ababa .................................................................. 58

4.2.1 Motorcycles and Tricycles ................................................................................... 58

4.2.2 Gasoline Vehicles ................................................................................................ 59

4.2.3 Diesel Vehicles .................................................................................................... 61

4.3 Vehicle Stock Analysis in Regional Governments .................................................. 65

4.3.1 Motorcycle and Tricycle ...................................................................................... 65

4.3.2 Gasoline Vehicles ................................................................................................ 70

4.3.3 Diesel Vehicles .................................................................................................... 75

4.4 Impact of Vehicle Stock Composition on Fuel Economy ....................................... 84

4.4.1 Motorcycles and Tricycles ................................................................................... 84

4.4.2 Gasoline Vehicles ................................................................................................ 87

4.4.3 Diesel Vehicles .................................................................................................... 88

5. FUEL QUALITY REVIEW AND IMPROVEMENT OF FUEL STANDARD ............ 91

5.1 Fuel Utilization Policy and Consumption ................................................................ 91

5.1.1 Diesel and Gasoline Consumption in Ethiopia from (2006-2012) ...................... 91

5.1.2 The Biofuel Development and Utilization Strategy in Ethiopia .......................... 92

5.2 International and National Fuel Quality Standards .................................................. 94

5.2.1 Parameters Included In the Fuel Quality Studies ................................................. 94

5.2.2 International Fuel Quality Standards ................................................................... 96

5.2.3 Over View of Ethiopian Fuel Specifications ....................................................... 98

5.3 Data Collected on Fuel Quality (historical data) ................................................... 100

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5.3.1 Global and National Sulfur Levels in Fuels ....................................................... 101

5.4 Conclusions and Recommendations ...................................................................... 104

6. ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF VEHICLE EMISSION ON AIR POLLUTION ....... 106

6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 106

6.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 107

6.2.1 Literature Review................................................................................................... 108

6.2.2 Measuring Methods and Instruments ..................................................................... 108

6.3 Measurement Sites ................................................................................................. 110

6.4 Results .................................................................................................................... 111

6.4.1 Carbon Monoxide .................................................................................................. 111

6.4.2 Particulate Matter ................................................................................................... 114

6.4.3 Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) ........................................................................................... 116

6.4.4 Sulfur Dioxide ........................................................................................................ 117

6.5 Trend Projection......................................................................................................... 120

7. TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS AND POLICY MEASURES FOR FUEL EFFICIENT

VEHICLES ............................................................................................................................ 125

7.1 Technology Options for Fuel Efficient and Clean Vehicles .................................. 125

7.1.1 Technology Options for Increasing Fuel economy ............................................ 125

7.1.2 Emission Control Technologies ......................................................................... 129

7.1.3 Alternative Fuels ................................................................................................ 130

7.2 Policy Measures for Promoting Cleaner and Efficient Vehicles ........................... 131

7.2.1 Enhancing Vehicle Efficiency Improvement ..................................................... 131

7.2.2 Use of cleaner fuels ............................................................................................ 133

7.2.3 Emission Control ............................................................................................... 134

8. COST BENFIT ANALYSIS OF POLICY MEASURES .............................................. 139

8.1 Scope of the Life Cycle Cost Analyses ................................................................... 139

8.2 Assumptions and Specifications ............................................................................ 139

8.3 Results of Life Cycle Cost Analyses ..................................................................... 143

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8.3.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 147

9. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ............................................................. 150

REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 152

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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ACRONYM

AACG: Addis Ababa City Government

AU: African Union

BAU Business as Usual

CD Core Diplomatic

CIF Cost, Insurance & Freight

DPF Diesel Particulate Filter

ECRGES Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy

EFI Electronic Fuel Injection

EPA Environmental Protection Authority

EPE Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise

ERCA Ethiopian Revenues & Customs Authority

ETH Ethiopia

FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

FO: Freight on Board

FTA Federal Transport Authority

GFEI Global Fuel Economy Initiative

GHG Green House Gas

GTP: Growth & Transformation Plan

ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation

IEA International Energy Agency

ITF International Transportation Federation

LCC Life cycle costs

No Number

OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

Proc Proclamation

Reg Regulations

SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and People Region

UN United Nations

UNEP Unite Nation Environmental Protection

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

VAT: Value Added Tax

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Custom Duty and Tax Rates of Imported vehicles in Ethiopia

Table 3.1 Example of unstructured raw data in ERCA’s database

Table 3.2 Example cleaned and structured data

Table 3.3 Imported light duty vehicle registered per year

Table 3.4 Locally assembled light duty vehicles per year

Table 3.5 Light duty vehicles registration by condition (New and Used)

Table 3.6 Classification of newly registered LDVs by age group for year 2005, 2008, and

2010

Table 3.7 Classification of registered LDVs by engine displacement volume

Table 3.8 Classification of registered LDVs by body type

Table 3.9 Registration of LDVs by fuel type

Table 3.10 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Average Annual Emission for all LDVs

Table 3.11 Harmonic average fuel economy and average annual emission for diesel vehicles

Table 3.12 Harmonic average fuel economy and average annual emission for petrol vehicles

Table 3.13 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Annual Emission for all LDVs

Table 3.14 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Average Annual Emission for Diesel

Vehicles

Table 3.15 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Average Annual Emission for Petrol

Vehicles

Table 4.1 Total vehicles inspected in Addis Ababa and Regions (2010/11)

Table 4.2 Summary of vehicle classification and important parameters

Table 4.3 Summary of vehicle classification by body type and engine capacity

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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Table 4.4 Distribution of motorcycles and tricycles in Addis Ababa (Total number of

motorcycles and tricycles: 2084)

Table 4.5 Gasoline vehicle distribution by body type in Addis Ababa

Table 4.6 Light duty diesel vehicle distribution by body type in Addis Ababa

Table 4.7 Cargo diesel vehicle distribution by gross weight in Addis Ababa

Table 4.8 Bus distribution in various categories in Addis Ababa

Table 4.9 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Amhara region

Table 4.10 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution by year of manufacture in

Oromia region

Table 4.11 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in SNNPR region

Table 4.12 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Tigray region

Table 4.13 Summary of ET-code motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Addis Ababa and

some regions

Table 14 Gasoline vehicle distribution in Amhara region

Table 4.15 Gasoline vehicle distribution by engine capacity in Oromia region

Table 4.16 Gasoline vehicle distribution by engine capacity in SNNPR

Table 4.17 Gasoline vehicle distribution by body type in Tigray region

Table 4.18 ET-code gasoline vehicle distribution by body type in Addis Ababa and some

regions

Table 4.19 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in Amhara region

Table 4.20 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in Benshagul Gumuz region

Table 4.21 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in Oromia region

Table 4.22 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in SNNPR region

Table 4.23 Light duty diesel vehicles distribution by body type in Tigray region

Table 4.24 Cargo trucks distribution by gross weight in Tigray region

Table 4.25 Distribution of buses in various categories in Tigray region

Table 4.26 ET-code light weight diesel vehicles distribution by body type

Table 4.27 ET-code cargo trucks distribution by gross weight

Table 4.28 ET-code buses distribution in various categories

Table 5.1 Petroleum product sales (consumption) quantity in metric ton

Table 5.2 Total amount of ethanol blending from 2008-2012

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Table 5.3 trend of Total blend of ethanol, Gasoline and Diesel (2008-2012)

Table 5.4: Gasoline and Diesel specifications (applicable in Europe 2009-2012)

Table 5.5 STM Specifications for Gasoline and Diesel (2012)

Table 5.6 Ethiopian Specifications for Gasoline and Diesel 2012

Table 5.7 Summary of Gasoline Fuel Quality in 2011

Table 5.8 Summary of Diesel Fuel Quality in 2011

Table 5.9 Summary of Gasoline Fuel Quality in 2010

Table 5.10 Summary of Diesel Fuel Quality in 2010

Table 5.11 Sulfur content of imported Diesel for the previous 8 years

Table 5.12 Sulfur content of imported gasoline (From 2004-2011)

Table 6.1 EPA Ethiopia and WHO air quality guidelines [EPA, 2003; WHO, 2005]

Table 6.2 Measurement sites and location

Table 6.3 CO concentrations at different sites collected during the dry season

Table 6.4 Wet season CO concentration level at different sites

Table 6.5 PM

2.5

concentration data for different sites during the dry season

Table 6.6 PM

2.5

concentration levels at the three sites during the wet season

Table 6.7 Climate data for Addis Ababa [Wikipedia]

Table 6.8 Mileage and fuel consumption per vehicle category in Addis Ababa (2010/2011)

Table 6.9 Annual emissions of pollutants per vehicle category in Addis Ababa (2010/2011)

Table 6.10 Euro II Emission standards in the European Union for passenger cars and light

duty vehicles

Table 6.11 Euro III emission standards for heavy duty diesel vehicles,

Table 7.1 Fuel Economy Target for 2020

Table 7.2 Fuel Economy Target for 2030

Table 7.3 Fuel economy target for 2050

Table 8.1: Life cycle cost of the vehicles with the existing tax regime for 36,000 km/year

mileage

Table 8.2: Life cycle cost of the vehicles for 24,000 km/y mileage and 10 % fuel inflation

and cost of electricity increase 1.3 Birr/kWh

Table 8.3: Life cycle cost of vehicles of different ages under existing fuel price and 5%

annual fuel inflation under consideration assuming annual mileage of 24,000 km

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 8.4: Life cycle cost of vehicles of different ages under existing fuel price and 5%

annual fuel inflation under consideration assuming annual mileage of 36,000 km

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 CO

emissions in ton from the transport sector in Ethiopia as per BAU scenario

Figure 3.1 Total LDVs Registration by Year

Figure 3.2 Light duty vehicle registration by condition (New and Used)

Figure 3.3 Number of registered LDVs in different years by age groups

Figure 3.4 Classification of registered vehicles by make

Figure 3.5 Body types of registered LDVs by year

Figure 3.6 Classification of registered LDVs by fuel type

Figure 3.7 Quantity of LD Vehicles registered by fuel type

Figure 3.8 ECE 15 or Urban Drive Cycle

Figure 3.9 EUDC for high power engine

Figure 3.10 EUDC for low power engine

Figure 3.11 Harmonic average fuel economy and average annual emission for all LDVs

Figure 3.12 Average annual emission trend for all type of LDVs

Figure 3.13 Harmonic average fuel economy for all registered LDVs considering aging

Figure 3.145 Average annual emission trend for all registered LDVs in g/km considering

aging

Figure 4.1 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Ethiopia by engine capacity

Figure 4.2 Distribution of motorcycles and tricycles in Ethiopia by year of manufacture

Figure 4.3 Distribution of motorcycles and tricycles by fuel type

Figure 4.4 Distribution of gasoline vehicles by engine capacity

Figure 4.5 Summary of gasoline vehicles distribution by year of manufacture

Figure 4.6 Summary of gasoline vehicles distribution by type of air fuel mixture formation

Figure 4.7 Summary of diesel vehicles distribution by year of manufacture

Figure 4.8 Summary of diesel vehicles distribution by type of fuel system

Figure 5.1 Trend of gasoline and diesel consumption

Figure 5.2 Global maximum gasoline sulfur content (source: www.ifqc.org)

Figure 5.3 Global maximum sulfur content of diesel (source: www.ifqc.org)

Figure 5.4 Trend of sulfur content of diesel

Figure 5.5 Trend of sulfur content of gasoline

Figure 6.1 Relative air pollutants (HC& NO

) exposure by transportation mode

[www.vtpi.org]

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Figure 6.2 Measured CO concentration at Bole Bridge during the dry season

Figure 6.3 Measured CO concentration at Teklehaimanot Square during the dry season

Figure 6.4 PM

2.5

concentrations at Bole Bridge

Figure 6.5 PM

2.5

concentrations at Teklehaimanot Square

Figure 7.1 Drive system of Hybrid vehicles

Figure 7.2 Battery pack of electric vehicle under the body

Figure 7.3 Three way catalytic converter

Figure 7.4 Availability and enforcement of low sulfur diesel in Middle East

Figure 7.5 Forecasted LD vehicle at present actual growth rate

Figure 7.6 Target average fuel economy of new vehicles of Ethiopia compared to other

countries

Figure 8.1 Toyota Yaris

Figure 8.2 Nissan Leafi

Figure 8.3 Life cycle cost of the vehicles with the existing tax regime in Birr

Figure 8.4 Life cycle cost of vehicles with excise and sur tax exemption

Figure 8.5 Life cycle cost of vehicles different ages under existing fuel price and 5% annual

fuel inflation

Figure 8.6 Projected incremental cost and benefits of low sulfur fuel in China

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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1. BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION

1.1 Country Background

Ethiopia is a country located in East Africa between 3 and 15

N latitude and 33 and 40

longitude. The total land area is about 1.1 million square kilometers. Ethiopia is bounded to

north and north east by Eretria, to east by Djibouti, to east and south east by Somalia, to south

by Kenya, to south west by South Sudan and to west and to north west by Sudan.

Ethiopia’s population has slightly exceeded 80 million at present that makes it the second

most populous country in Africa. The population is growing at around 2 % per annum. While

most part of the country in central, west and north and south Ethiopia are highlands, the

lowland areas are mostly located in east, south east and the rift valley part of the country.

Most of central, south and western parts of the country receive sufficient rainfall.

Since 1995, Ethiopia is a multi-national Federal Democratic Republic and is currently

governed by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF. Ethiopia has

achieved 11% economic in the last 10 years and has planned to reach middle-income status

by 2025. Increasing agricultural productivity and the share of the industry to the economy

are the main strategies. To achieve this goal Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan

(GTP) is an ambitious development plan of the government that is targeted to lay strong

foundation for industrialization up to 2015.

Ambitious industrial development in the country with conventional path of development can

result in negative environmental impact by increasing GHG emission drastically. To mitigate

this, the government has finalized the preparation of Climate Resilient Green Economy

development strategy in 2011 and began its implementation. The strategy will enable

exploitation of the vast hydropower potential, use of improved stoves in rural areas,

efficiency improvements in livestock value chain, preservation of the forest, utilization of

electricity from hydropower plants for freight transportation by building railway network and

light train transit in cities and use of improved and new technology vehicles with higher

efficiency.

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1.2 Project Background

While fuel efficiency of a vehicle is the volume of fuel consumed per unit or specified

distance travelled, fuel economy of a vehicle is considered to be the distance travelled per

unit volume of fuel. The fuel-efficiency of vehicles became a great concern for the first time

when OPEC increased fuel prices in 1970s following the Arab-Israel War in 1973. Within

few years fuel-efficient cars were considered a necessity to mitigate sky-rocketing fuel price.

Starting 1990s, the concern on the global warming made the reduction of fuel consumption of

vehicles very urgent. The global car fleet is predicted to triple by 2050 and over 80% of the

increase will be in developing countries, which will be a burden to the strained global

economy and can accelerate global warming if the current style of industrial development in

the developed countries is followed.

The Global Fuel Initiative (GEFI), which was formed by UNEP. IEA and ITF in 2009 and

joined by ICCT in 2012, sees that there is an opportunity to improve new car fuel efficiency

by 30% by 2020 and 50% by 2030 in a cost effective way [UNEP,2010]. An improvement of

fuel efficiency will result in a proportional reduction on fuel consumption. Hence, it means

that 30 % of fuel will be saved per km traveled by 2020 and 50 % by 2050. The potential for

improvement of vehicle fuel economy can be realized by combination of the following course

of actions:

a) Improvement of fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles by reducing old vehicle

stock. Newer vehicle can have less frictional resistance and higher combustion

efficiency by, lean mixture burning and better electronic control. Improvement of

transmission efficiency by using continuously variable transmission.

b) Use of compact vehicles: vehicles with less body weight and projected area have less

aerodynamic and gravitational resistance and hence consume less fuel.

c) Use of new vehicle technology: Green vehicles are those that are environmentally

friendly compared to conventional gasoline or diesel vehicles. Green vehicles have

higher fuel efficiency or use no fossil fuel and hence, release less emission. This

category of vehicles includes hybrid vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles, fuel cell

vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles. Green vehicles that have completed the

technology development stage and in commercialization phase are: hybrid vehicles,

plug in electric vehicles and alternative fuels.

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d) Road improvement

• Roadway expansion reduces congestion delay which reduces fuel

consumption.

• Road condition improvement by frequent repair and street resurfacing reduces

vehicle braking and wear.

e) Changing driving habits: Driving with minimal acceleration and braking or cruising at

constant speed as much as possible

f) Changing transport modalities:- Availability of mass transit reduces passenger cars

on the streets or mileage that has to be covered and can contribute to vehicle fuel

economy.

Road transport is the biggest mode of transport that has a share over 95%, both in freight and

passenger movement in Ethiopia. It is estimated that the vehicle population has exceeded

325,000 and growing by about 10% annually. Most of the vehicles are older than 15 years

and beyond their useful service life. As a result high fuel consumption, emission of

pollutants, and road accident prevail.

The increase in road passenger-km travelled in Ethiopia was forecasted at an annual growth

rate of 8.3%-9.1%. The total passenger transport in passenger-km in Ethiopia is expected to

increase from 40 billion in 2010 to 220 billion in 2030 driven by a strong urbanization.

According Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy, if business goes as usual (

BAU), emissions from the motor vehicles will increase from 5 -ton CO

in 2010 to 41ton CO

in 2030 as shown in Figure 1.1 [ FDRE,2011].

Figure 1.1 CO

emissions in million ton from the transport sector in Ethiopia as per BAU

scenario

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As a result GHG emissions of passenger cars will increase from 2.5 million ton in 2010 to

13.1 million ton CO

equivalent in 2030 assuming there will be average fuel efficiency

improvement of passenger vehicle fleet by 10% from 2010 to 2030.

By introducing new technologies in the transport sector, the emission of CO

is planned to be

reduced down to 13.2 million ton CO

in 2030 compared to BAU case. The major courses of

actions proposed by ECRGES are:

• Reducing demand of passenger cars in Addis Ababa by building a light-rail transit

system that goes from east to west and north to south and a bus rapid transit system;

• Improving vehicle fuel efficiency by setting fuel efficiency standards,

• Promoting clean fuels by blending ethanol with gasoline and gasoil with biodiesel

• Adopting hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles,

• Shifting freight transport from road to an electric rail network. Shifting freight to

electric rail is the single largest abatement lever in the Transport sector, with a

potential of 8.9 ton CO

reduction.

With regard to using alternative fuels, the plan is to use 15 % ethanol- 85 % gasoline blend

and 5 % biodiesel blend. As there is no limitation, the biodiesel content can be increased

provided enough jatropha or castor seed are cultivated and the oil is extracted and esterified.

The blending of gasoline with 15 % ethanol will not be a problem as excess ethanol will be

available from 10 sugar factories that will be erected in the near future. The use of bio-fuels

will reduce emission of greenhouse gases as well as contribute to stabilizing fuel price.

Ethiopia has signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio de

Janeiro, in 1994. According to the terms of the responsibilities of the convention, Ethiopia

has submitted initial communication in 2001 and it is working to contribute to efforts in

reduction of global Green House Gas (GHG) emissions by promoting green economic

development strategy. It is well known that reduction of GHG emissions requires reduction of

fossil fuel consumptions. Hence, Ethiopia is working with United Nations Environment

Program (UNEP) to increase vehicle fuel efficiency by identifying and implementing relevant

policy package.

Motor vehicles produce more air pollutants than any other single human activity. Nearly 50%

of global carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HCs) and nitrogen dioxide (NO

) emissions

from fossil fuel combustion come from petrol and diesel engines. In city centers and

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

congested streets, traffic can be responsible for about 80-90% of these pollutants and this

situation is expected to be severe in cities in the developing countries. Vehicle emissions

mainly result from fuel combustion. The most common type of transport fuels are gasoline

(leaded or unleaded form) for light duty vehicles (such as automobiles) and diesel fuel for

heavy duty vehicles (such as buses, and trucks). For heavy duty vehicles, other commercial

fuels such as biodiesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) are available. These fuels,

especially biodiesel, have lower value of emissions per liter. Carbon dioxide (CO

) (a major

greenhouse gas responsible for global warming), is one of the main combustion products

emitted to the atmosphere from vehicle exhaust system. The major pollutants emitted from

gasoline fueled vehicles are CO, HCs, NOx (oxides of nitrogen) and lead (for leaded gasoline

fuel). In addition to these, a vehicle with diesel engine emits sulfur dioxide (SO

) if sulfur is

present in the fuel and particulate matter (PM) emissions. Specially, when the injection pump

or nozzle has trouble in functioning properly, the particulate emission becomes high. In

addition to these, a worn-out engine results in blue smoke exhaust due to combustion of

lubrication oil.

Climate change resulting from the greenhouse effects will present significant challenges

including risks to water supply and other resources. Global warming will also increase the

frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and wildfires posing additional risks to

human health and infrastructure. A changing climate will also make it more difficult to meet

air quality standards. Higher temperatures increase the photochemical formation of ozone, as

well as emissions from the natural sources such as plants. It also increases the demand for air

conditioning resulting in the generation of additional electricity and smog forming emissions.

The likelihood of more frequent wildfires also poses a risk for air quality. On the whole,

global warming will make the control of smog-forming emissions more difficult and hence,

meeting air quality standards.

As per the contract between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Transport

Authority and Addis Ababa Institute of Technology on “Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative

(GFEI) Program/Project in Ethiopia”, the consulting team has prepared this draft final report.

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2012

1.3 Objectives

This study focuses on the following main objectives and draws possible intervention options

to minimize the effects of atmospheric pollution and GHG emissions from cars in Ethiopia.

The study:

• Provides baseline data for tracking progress in improvement of vehicle efficiency as

per GFEI guidelines

• Ensures that Ethiopian policymakers have sufficient and updated information in order

to draft appropriate legislations and guidelines for dissemination of more fuel-

efficient vehicles that have fewer emissions of pollutants and GHG.

• Assesses the impact of vehicle emission and fuel quality on the ambient air quality

• Makes the study of GFEI in Ethiopia as a pilot for wide spread application in Africa

• Uses the experience gained for instructing Eastern Africa countries and sharing the

experience on GFEI regional and global conferences.

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2. NATIONAL REGULATIONS AND INCENTIVES FOR FUEL

EFFCIENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY VEHICLES

2.1 Policy & Strategy, Legal, Institutional & Regulatory Framework

Environmental protection has been given an utmost importance in Ethiopia. The FDRE

Constitution (Proc. No. 1/1995) has provided two broad constitutional environmental

objectives: viz., the achievement of clean and healthy environment (see Article 92 (1)), and

the achievement of sustainable development (see Article 43 (1)).

The Ethiopian Environmental Policy and Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia (1997) provide

also detailed & broad directions as to how to realize the two environmental objectives within

the Ethiopian context.

In terms of environmental policy(as related to Atmospheric Pollution & Climate Change), it

has been stated as follows: The policy recognizes that, even at an insignificant level of

contribution of atmospheric green house gases, a firm & visible commitment to the principles

of containing climate change is essential and to take the appropriate control measures to show

concern and then deal with the rest of the world in a struggle to bring about its containment

by those countries which produce large quantities of greenhouse gases.

The recent FDRE’s Government GTP, and the ECRGES also incorporate plans, strategies

and broad programs on to realize the two fundamental environmental objectives within the

Ethiopian context [FDRE, 2011]. The government sees the opportunity to gear the

development of the transport sector to contribute to a sustainable development pathway. The

policy frame work by ECRGES to promote fuel efficient and environmentally friendly

transportation was discussed in chapter 1.

Following the Environmental Policy & Conservation suitable legal and institutional,

including regulatory, framework has also been instituted to achieve the two fundamental

environmental objectives.

Proc. No. 295/2002 provides the institutional & regulatory framework with respect to

environmental protection in Ethiopia. The institutional framework includes the

Environmental Council, the Federal Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), the regional

(including the two City Administrations i.e., Addis Ababa & Dire Dawa) Environmental

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Agencies, and Environmental Units, which are legally expected to be established within each

of the specific development sector institution.

The Environmental Council shall have the power to review proposed environmental policies,

strategies and laws, and issue recommendations to the government (see Article 9 (1), Proc.

No. 295/2002). The draft regulations to be prepared under this project shall then be approved

by the Council of Ministers (see Article 20 Proc. No. 300/2002 (Environmental Pollution

Control Proc.) cum Article 77 (13), Proc. No. 1/1995 of the FDRE Constitution). The basis

for the Council of Ministers legislative action shall be the recommendation submitted to it by

the Environmental Council.

The EPA shall have a number of coordination responsibilities under the law. The EPA thus

shall have the power & duties to coordinate measures to ensure that the environmental

objectives provided under the Constitution and the basic principles set out in the

Environmental Policy of Ethiopia are realized (see Article 6 (1), Proc. No. 295/2002).

Specifically, with respect to environmental pollution & standards, the EPA, in consultation

with the competent agencies, sets environmental standards and ensures compliance with those

standards (see Article 6 (7) Proc. No. 295/20020).

The EPA under the Environmental Pollution Control Law (i.e., Proc. No. 300/2002), has been

provided with the following clear powers & duties with respect to setting environmental

standards. In consultation with competent agencies, the EPA shall formulate practical

environmental standards based on scientific & environmental principles (see Article 6(1)).

Among such possible environmental standards, one of them is air quality standards that

specify the ambient air quality & give the allowable amount of emission for both stationary &

mobile air pollution sources (see Article 6 (1) (b)).

From the project perspective, the competent organizations are meant to be the Ministry of

Transport and Transport Authority. The Ministry of Transport and the Transport Authority

shall also have the legal obligation to cooperate with EPA with respect to setting

environmental standards as related to mobile source of air pollution such as from vehicles. As

per Article 7 (1) (j) of Proc. No. 468/2005, the Transport Authority, in cooperation with the

concerned organs prepares and submits, and upon approval, implements standards related to

the smoke, gas, vapor, and the like emitted from the exhaust pipes of the vehicles and trains

with a view to preventing pollution, taking into account international criteria and the capacity

of the country.

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In terms of legal framework, Proc. No. 300/2002, the Environmental Pollution Control

Proclamation is another very relevant law with respect to controlling environmental pollution

including those from vehicular emission.

In terms of guiding any economic development by the principle of sustainable development,

Proc. No. 299/2002, the Law of Environmental Impact Assessment, shall also be relevant.

As related to international obligation & participation of Ethiopia, in terms of GHG reduction,

the following international instruments constitute the required legal framework:

• Proc. No. 439/2005

• Kyoto Protocol Ratification Proclamation, which protocol has been based on the UN

Framework Convention on Climate Change, and has been ratified by the Ethiopian

government.

In terms of the sector (Transport) specific legal regulation, the following proclamations &

regulations are very relevant in determining the legal framework. These are:

• Proc. No. 468/2005 (the Transport Authority establishment law)

• Proc. No. 681/2010 (vehicle identification, inspection & registration law)

• Proc. No. 691/2010 (Ministry of Transport empowerment law)

• Regulations No. 208/2011(road transport traffic control law)

• Regulations No. 74/2001 (motor vehicles & trailers identification, inspection &

registration law).

In terms of customs & tax systems, and incentive related issues, the following constitute the

legal framework:

• Proc. No. 285/2002 (VAT)

• Proc. No. 286/2002 (Income Tax)

• Proc. No. 300/2002 (Environmental Pollution Control Law)

• Proc. No. 622/2009 (Customs Proclamation)

• Proc. No. 691/2010 (Incentives related, as related to the Ministry of Finance &

Economic Development)

• Proc. No. 307/2002 (Excise Tax, Withholding Tax, Income Tax Proclamation)

• Regulations No. 133/2007; (Import Sur Tax, except on those exempted motor

vehicles for freights & passengers, and special purpose motor vehicles)

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The regulation of fuel efficiency & vehicular emission is related to multifaceted legal

institutional & regulatory framework.

2.2 Vehicles Import Customs Duties & Applicable Taxes and Incentives

2.2.1 Customs Duties & Taxes

The customs tariff for imported vehicles shall be based on CIF cost of the vehicle unlike

other goods, which is based on FOB price. The custom & other applicable taxes (tariff) in

relation to vehicles are thus calculated based on CIF cost & as provided under the applicable

customs tariff & respective tax laws.

The following are the information collected from the relevant sources at the ERCA & the

applicable laws. Except those exempted, in relation to vehicles, the possible types of charges

(customs & all taxes) applicable to imported vehicles are the following: customs duty, value

added tax, excise tax, sur tax, and withholding tax. These are shown in Table 2.1.

a) Customs Duty

The applicable law shall be Proc. No. 622/2009 (Customs Proclamation), the Customs tariff

(see Article 45 (1)) & applicable customs related regulations. Customs duty is generally

applicable to all types of vehicles. The customs tariff rate may extend from 10% up to 35%

depending on the weight or capacity of the vehicle under consideration. The customs value

for imported goods shall be the actual total costs of the goods up to the first entry point into

customs territory of Ethiopia (see Article 32 (2) cum Article 33 & 39; see also Article 32-

Article 44 as related to calculation of customs value; Article 51-Article 53 as related to

payment of customs duties and taxes and service charges on imported goods including

vehicles; Article 67-Article 68 as related to relief (tax exemption) procedures). The payment

of customs tariff on goods including vehicles is based on Vol. II Customs Tariff, officially

issued by the ERCA. The latest version is January 2008 based on the 2007 version of the

Harmonized System. Vehicles related customs tariff has been provided under Chapter 87 of

the Customs Tariff Book (see pp 569-577).

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b) Value Added Tax

The legal framework for VAT is Proc. No. 285/2002 and the relevant & applicable VAT

regulations. VAT is generally applicable to all imported goods except those exempted

transactions (see Article 8 cum Article 8 (2) (j), for example). The rate could be 0% (see

Article 7 (2) (b)) or fixed rate i.e., 15%. VAT is applicable to imported goods including

vehicles (see Article 2 (7) and here goods mean all kinds of corporal movable items. The

person who imports vehicles is a VAT payer (see Article 3 (1) (b). In the VAT proclamation

a person carrying out taxable import of goods to Ethiopia, shall be a VAT taxpayer. The

value of a taxable import, as per Article 15 (1), is the customs value of goods determined in

accordance with the customs legislation of Ethiopia, plus the sum of duties & taxes payable

upon the import of the goods into Ethiopia, excluding VAT and income tax withholding.

c) Excise Tax

The legal framework for Excise Tax is Proc. No. 307/2002 and related regulations. Excise

Tax may not be applicable to some types of vehicles. The tax rate may also be different from

vehicles to vehicles. The tax rate extends from 30% up to 100% depending on the capacity of

the vehicle under consideration. The person liable to the payment of excise tax shall be an

importer. Importer means any person (natural or juridical) who imports goods, which are

subjected to the payment of excise tax, in to the country (see Article 2 (2)). To this effect, the

Proclamation under its Schedule (Item No. 15), has provided the following:

• Motor passenger cars, Station Wagons, utility cars & Land Rover, Jeeps, pickups,

other similar vehicles (including motorized caravans), whether assembled with their

appropriate initial component or not follows the following tax categorization;

 Item no 15.1: up to 1300 cc 30%;

 Item no 15.2: from 1301cc up to 1, 800 cc 60%;

 Item no 15.3: above 1 800 cc 100%.

• According to Article 5 (2), the base for computation of excise tax, with respect to

goods imported, shall be based on cost, insurance & freight (CIF).

d) Import Sur Tax:

The applicable law with respect to Import Sur Tax shall be Reg. No. 133/2007. Import Sur

Tax shall apply to all goods imported into Ethiopia except those exempted ones (see Article

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2). The exemption has two aspects: schedule based exemption & non-schedule based

exemption. Under the schedule based exemption & in relation to vehicles, motor vehicles for

freight & passengers, and special purpose motor vehicles are exempted (see Article 5 cum the

Schedule). Non-Schedule based exemption refers to goods imported by persons or

organizations exempted from customs duty by law, directives or by (international) agreement

entered into by the (Ethiopian) government. Import Sur Tax of 10% shall be levied &

collected on all goods imported except the exempted ones. According to Article 4, the basis

of computation for the import surtax shall be the aggregate of CIF value; customs duty, VAT

& Excise Tax Payable on the good.

e) Withholding Tax

The applicable law for withholding tax shall be Proc. No. 286/2002 (Income Tax Proc.)

specifically Article 52, Collection of Tax on Imports. This tax is applicable in relation to

import of goods for commercial use. In particular Article 52 (1) states the follows:

A current payment of income tax shall be collected on Schedule C (Income/Business

Income Tax) income at the time of import of goods for commercial use, and the

collected amount treated as tax withheld that is creditable against the tax payer’s

income tax liability for the year. The amount (as withholding tax) to be collected on

imported goods shall be 3% of the sum of CIF value (see Article 52(2)).

The charge/tax rate may generally be categorized in to three as 0 rates, low rate, and higher

(full) rate.

• Zero rate (0%) applies for the following goods/items: ambulances, fire fighting

vehicles, defense vehicles; vehicles for handicapped (physically challenged)

• Low rate applies for the following one item, namely, tractors: The applicable customs

duty & tax are as follows:

Customs duty 10%;

VAT 15%;

Withholding tax 3%.

There will be no payment of surtax & excise tax.

• Higher (full) rate shall be paid on vehicles either based on seats or horse power (cc).

This is given in Table 2.1.

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The vehicles importation system, as related to payment of customs duties and other

applicable taxes including incentive regime is administered at two levels, policy &

operational level.

At the policy level, the policy related to fiscal matters shall be initiated and administered, if

approved by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (see Proc. No. 691/2010:

Article 18 and see also Article 67 of Proc. No. 622/2009).

Table 2.1 Custom Duty and Tax Rates of Imported vehicles in Ethiopia

Goods /Items

Customs

Duty

Excise

Tax

Import

Sur Tax

VAT

With

holding

Public Transport

Less than 15 and greater or equal to 10 seats

15 or more seats

Passenger cars Less than 10 seats

Cylinder capacity not exceeding 1300 cc

Cylinder exceeding 1300 cc but less than

1800cc

Cylinder exceeding 1800 cc not exceeding

3000 cc

100

Electric/Battery Vehicles

Trucks

Cargo vehicles (based on weight) up to

1500 kg

Cargo vehicles >1500 kg

Heavy Duty, 5 - 20 ton

At the operational level the importation of vehicles system, as related to enforcement of

customs duties & other payable taxes on imported vehicles, is administered by the Federal

Revenues & Customs Authority based on the Harmonized System (see Proc. No. 587/2008

(ERCA Establishment Proc.) cum Proc. No. 622/2009: Customs Proc. & other applicable

laws).

2.2.2 Incentives

Each tax related law may provide incentive regime. The incentive regime shall serve as

exemption from the payment of the required tax or customs as provided. Incentives are more

commonly as related to economic objectives than related to environmental objectives.

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a) As related to Customs Duty

According to Article 67, Proc. No. 622/2009, duty free privilege with respect to import of

goods may be granted by law, international agreement to which Ethiopia is a party or by

directives to be issued by the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development. There are thus

three options to secure incentives: law, international agreement or directives.

In relation to vehicles, the following enjoy such privilege: ambulances (of different capacities

in a complete state), fire fighting vehicles, defense vehicles, vehicles for handicapped

(physically challenged).

If further privilege is to be provided for other vehicles, it has to be provided by law or by

directives to be issued by the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development (see Article 18

(5), Proc. No. 691/2010 cum Article 67, Proc. No. 622/2009).

b) As related to VAT

According to Article 8 of Proc. No. 285/2002, some exempted transactions have been stated

in Article 8 (2) as follows:

As per Article 8 (2) (j) the following types of import goods are exempt from payment

of VAT to the extent provided by regulations. These are :

Goods (the legal definition of goods also includes vehicles) imported by the

government organizations, institutions or projects exempted from (customs) duties

and other import taxes to the extent provided by law or agreement.

Article 8(4) also provides a possibility of granting exemptions for other goods & services,

due to directives to be issued by the Minister of Finance & Economic Development.

c) As related to Excise Tax

The Excise Tax law (Proc. No. 307/2002) provides the assessment & payment of excise tax

on certain types of vehicles (as per its Schedule) from 30% up to 100% excise tax. The

Excise Tax provides no incentive regime.

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d) As related to Import Sur Tax

Import Sur Tax is administered as per Import Sur Tax Reg. No. 133/2007. This law provides

the following exemptions to the following vehicles as per its Schedule. These are: motor

vehicles for freight & passengers, and special purpose motor vehicles.

e) As related to Environmental Objectives

Incentives for environmental objectives have been envisaged under Article 10, Proc. No.

300/2002 (the law of environmental pollution control); given as follows:

Incentives for the introduction of methods that enable the prevention or minimization of

pollution to an existing undertaking shall be determined by the regulations issued under the

proclamation. Importation of new equipment that is destined to control pollution shall, upon

verification by the EPA, be exempted from payment of custom duty.

Article 28 of Reg. No. 25/2007 (of the Addis Ababa City Government) also provides the

following: Incentives for the introduction of methods to an existing undertaking that enable to

prevent or minimize pollution shall be determined by the regulations to be issued by the

Federal Government for the implementation of Environmental Pollution Control Proc. No.

300/2002.

The Federal Government has issued Reg. No. 159/2008 in relation to industrial pollution. The

Federal Government environmental regulations (i.e., Prevention of Industrial Pollution

Council of Ministers Regulations No. 159/2008) deal specifically on industrial pollution.

Although these regulations focus mainly on stationary source of pollution from industrial

source, smoke limits and maximum CO concentration in motor vehicle exhaust is given.

However, the given CO limits are very high.

The incentive regime envisaged under the Federal Government environmental pollution

control proclamation & the Addis Ababa City Regulations, however, are only applicable to

factories. If there is a possibility of interpreting it differently, the content & scope of tax

provisions have to be interpreted restrictively. Therefore, it may not be possible to widen, by

interpretation, the scope of Article 10 (under the proclamation) & Article 28 (under the said

City regulations) to cover vehicles as well.

This obviously requires a policy dialogue to be held with the Ministry of Finance &

Economic Development, based on concrete proposals, to initiate the required incentive

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regime by way of legislative amendment. Legally, the federal EPA is the key institution to

initiate such incentives.

The legislative measure required for consideration of incentives as related to vehicles might

depend on the type of the relevant tax or customs regime: viz., customs duty or VAT or

Excise Tax or Import Sur Tax.

The legislative measure may be required at two levels: at statutory level and/or non-statutory

level. The statutory level amendment may come in two aspects: in relation to amending Proc.

No. 300/2002 & in relation to the tax law at statutory level (say customs duty law or VAT).

The non-statutory legislative amendment or measure may come into picture in the following

way: in relation to a given tax regime law (say Import Sur Tax regulations).

Based on such statutory amendment, the incentive regime has to be provided for vehicles by

the new draft regulations (non-statutory) to be prepared under the present project.

By way of conclusion, the envisaged incentive regime under the environmental pollution

control laws may not be applicable for vehicles. There is a clear legal gap pertaining to

incentives for vehicles. Therefore, a legislative measure, in terms of legislative amendment &

new legal instrument, has to be taken to realize the desired incentive regime for vehicles.

2.3 Vehicles Registration & Inspection System

2.3.1 Vehicles Registration System

Vehicles identification, inspection and registration system is governed by Proc. No.

681/2010. As per the proclamation (see Article 2 (1)) vehicles means any type of wheeled

motor vehicle other than special military vehicles, for use on roads classified as carriage,

bicycle, motor vehicle, semi-trailer & trailer (see also Article 2 (13), Proc. No. 468/2005).

Motor vehicle means (see Article 2 (4)) any vehicle moving on a road by mechanical or

electrical power. The definition for motor vehicle has been broadly defined by Proc. No.

468/2005: Motor Vehicle means a vehicle moving by mechanical or electrical power,

classified as truck, motorcycle, private motor car, public service vehicle, truck, tractor and

special mobile equipment. Each of the items under the definition has been defined legally

separately.

Vehicles, except those exempted by such proclamation, are identified through the registration

system. The exempted groups are the following (see Article 5, Proc. No. 681/2010);

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inventory vehicles; vehicles engaged in international traffic; special mobile equipment with a

maximum speed of less than 20 km per hour; and carriages of handicaps.

The registration system is based on ownership & identification number plate. The

identification number plate is divided into two, federal & regional. The ownership

identification system is similar (except for those only to be issued by the federal government

like embassies, international organizations & aid plates, ETH) both at federal and regional

(including the City of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa) level, which is identified by different

colors and codes. Those colors & codes, except for temporary, transferrable & special mobile

equipment plate, provide the ownership dimension of the vehicle under consideration.

As per the Schedule, attached to the said Proc., the following 11 (eleven) plates are provided:

Taxi plate; Private Plate; Commercial Plate (see also under ETH Plate); Government Plate

(see also under ETH Plate); Religious & Civic Societies Plate; Temporary Plate; Transferable

Plate; Special Mobile Equipment Plate; Police Plate; Embassies, International Organizations

& Aid Plate; ETH Plate (indicates vehicles engaged in cross country commercial road

transport service or owned by the federal government);

The regional (including the city of Addis Ababa & Dire Dawa) plate types have also been

provided under the same Schedule with their respective abbreviations (like AA to indicate

vehicles registered in Addis Ababa).

Ownership of vehicles may thus conveniently be categorized into the following four groups:

private, government, international & non-government which will include:

• Private; taxi, private & commercial

• Government; government itself & police

• International; embassies & international organizations (UN, AU & CD); and

• Non-governmental; domestic & international: religious & civic societies (domestic),

and international aid organizations;

The ownership dimension may help design the implementation strategy, from which group of

vehicles to commence implementation of the fuel efficiency and the environmental

requirement of vehicular emission reduction.

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2.3.2 Vehicles Inspection System

The applicable law (i.e., Proc. No. 681/2010) clearly provides a legal requirement for the

annual inspection (see Article 25) of vehicles except for those exempted under such law (see

Article 26). According to Article 29, there are four vehicles inspection criteria.

Among the inspection criteria environmental criteria is one. According to Article 29 (1) (d), it

is stated as follows: An authorized inspector of an inspection station shall inspect each

vehicle presented for the purpose of establishing the vehicles compliance with environmental

pollution protection standards as per the appropriate law. As per this law (Article 29(2)), the

federal Transport Authority has also been authorized to issue directives to provide for

additional inspection criteria and the implementation of the Article.

Reg. No. 208/2011, as per its Article 10 (1) (a) clearly prohibits the following; No person

may drive on a road any vehicle which is not properly maintained, discharges smoke, vapor,

oil or fuel of higher amount than the appropriate level and which is likely to cause annoyance

or damage to other road users or the environment.

There is no legally prescribed environmentally related standard vehicles inspection criteria

yet. As discussed with relevant informants, the Transport Authority has also not yet issued

the required directives as provided under Article 10 (2) of the said Proclamation (No.

681/2010).

Therefore, based on the new vehicular emission level, the said directives have to be prepared

& issued by the Transport Authority.

2.4 Ethiopia’s International Obligation/Participation

Emission of GHG to the atmospheric environment including from vehicular source is of an

international concern due to its contribution to climate change. Ethiopia, as one of the

member of the international community and therewith to the global environmental system, is

an active participant in the protection of the global environment.

This is evident from the number of legislative ratifications already done with respect to

international environmental agreements by the Ethiopian government. Among the

international environmental agreements ratified by the Ethiopian government, pertaining to

atmospheric environment, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (ratified in

1994) and the Kyoto Protocol (ratified in 2005) are few. Ethiopia is not as such a country

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classified as contributor to the atmospheric pollution. Her participation at international level

is based on voluntary and thus on moral obligation basis.

2.5 Formulation of Draft Regulations

The need for drafting new draft regulations with a view to promote fuel efficient vehicles &

therewith to regulate vehicular emission is evident. However, there are some issues to be

discussed, namely, the need to have an ambient air quality standard; the need to establish

vehicular emission standard; under which type of tax law the type of incentive to be

provided; at what level the draft regulations to be issued as regulations; and the scope of

application of the said draft regulations.

Ambient air quality standard is a prerequisite to determine the (vehicular) emission level.

There is no legally established ambient air quality standard in Ethiopia. Such quality standard

has to be determined by law. The initiative has to be taken by the Federal Government EPA

to this effect. There is an already developed draft ambient air quality standard.

The vehicular emission standard has been prepared by adoption, under the current project.

Under which type of tax law the incentive to be provided requires serious discussion by all

stakeholders. The recommendation could be to provide an exemption from Excise Tax and/or

from Import Sur Tax.

Should the provision of incentives for vehicles undergo two legislative processes, statutory &

non-statutory, such legislative process looks as follows.

2.5.1 Statutory Legislative Process

To provide the required incentive regime on environmental objectives, the required

legislative amendment has to be made in relation to Proc. No. 300/2002. This is going to be

done by the House of Peoples Representatives based on the draft amendment proclamation to

be prepared both by the Federal Government EPA in consultation with the Transport

Authority, then to be submitted to the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development. The

draft proclamation may go through the respective standing committees, for their respective

legislative review, before the House deliberates on same for its legislative measure. This is to

be so since the incentive regime touches two dimensions: economic dimension (revenue) &

environmental dimension (protection).

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2.5.2 Non-Statutory Legislative Process

The process to be passed by the draft regulations may look as follows: the draft regulations

have to be prepared by the current project (based on the required inputs emission level,

incentive regime, implementation strategy, scope of application, etc.); the draft regulations

have to be presented for comments by stakeholders in a workshop; comments secured from

the workshop have to be incorporated; the draft regulations have to be submitted by the

Ministry of Transport and Transport Authority to the Federal Government EPA; the EPA

then submits same to the Environmental Council for its due deliberation & recommendation;

the Environmental Council then submits the draft regulations to the Council of Ministers for

its executive action to issue the draft regulations as legally binding & effective regulations.

The following subjects determine the level of government to issue the required regulations:

• legal power on energy matters (given to the Ministry of Water & Energy; see

Article 26 (1)) (j), Proc. No. 691/2010);

• power to formulate minimum emission standard level (through federal EPA as

provided under Article 6, Proc. No. 300/2002);

• power to decide on tax & customs including incentive matters (as per the federal

Constitution (by the House of Peoples Representatives see Article 55 cum Article

96 (1) the provisions which provide the power of the Federal Government on

taxation, specifically, on customs duty & import related taxes);( by the respective

customs duty & tax laws by the Council of Ministers through its respective

regulations); (by the Ministry of Finance & Economic Development (see Article,

18(5), Proc. No. 691/2010);

• power to manage customs & import tax matters on imported goods (by the ERCA

as per Proc. No. 587/2008);

• power to manage vehicles in terms of their classification, registration & inspection

(by the federal Transport Authority as per its establishment law Proc. No.

468/2005 & other transport related laws).

All these issues, unless delegated, are the mandate of the Federal Government. Therefore, the

draft regulations have to be submitted to the Federal Government for its issuance, instead of

submitting same to the AACG.

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2.6 Conclusion

This project attempts to address the achievement of double objectives: economic objectives

(in terms of increasing vehicles fuel efficiency) & environmental objectives (in terms of

reducing vehicular emission). Technological dimension is also an integral part of both

objectives.

This part of the project concludes the following:

a) There is no legally established ambient air quality standard in Ethiopia.

b) There is no legally established vehicular emission standard in Ethiopia.

c) The introduction of the vehicular emission standard in Ethiopia imperatively requires

the prior legal establishment of a local ambient air quality standard.

d) The introduction of the vehicular emission standard imperatively requires subsequent

detail administrative directives to be issued by the Transport Authority.

e) The importation of vehicles (as imported goods) is subjected to the assessment &

payment of customs duties and other import taxes: viz., VAT, Excise Tax; Import Sur

Tax including Withholding Tax (the last one being creditable to the tax payer).

f) The excise tax is made dependent on cylinder volume. Thus, it penalizes vehicles that

consume more fuel per km and emit more exhaust per km. Hence, it is indirectly

related to fuel economy and emission. However, the group of vehicles with cylinder

volume less than 1000 c.c. are not given tax incentives compared to the group 1000

c.c. -1300 c.c..

g) The heavy tax on passenger cars with seat capacity less than 10 persons is responsible

to the aging of the fleet.

h) Incentive for vehicles based on new technologies ( hybrid vehicles, electric vehicle

etc.) that result in radically higher fuel economy and lower emission has not yet been

provided in Ethiopia.

i) The granting of legally recognized & established fiscal incentives for importation of

vehicles requires legislative measure at two levels: at proclamation level (as related to

amendment of the pollution control law) & at regulations level (in terms of new

regulations to be prepared under the Project, which may touch one or more of the

import tax laws, viz., VAT, Excise Tax and/or Import Sur Tax).

j) The legislative measure determines at which level of government such measure is to

be taken; by the House of Peoples Representative (in case of amending the pollution

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control proclamation) or by the Council of Ministers (in terms of issuing the new draft

regulations to be /prepared under this Project) or by the Minister of Finance &

Economic Development by issuing directives.

k) The new draft regulations to be prepared under this project shall be applicable in all

regions of Ethiopia.

l) The registration of vehicles system of vehicles is based on ownership of vehicles

(private, government, international & non-governmental) & based on such ownership,

the respective code has been given to vehicles.

m) Environmental objectives & criteria has been recognized under the applicable laws in

terms of annual vehicles inspection, but lack details (directives) for their due

enforcement.

n) The economic & environmental dimensions of the objectives of this project involves

multitude of stakeholders for its implementation; this may include government

institutions (like the Federal Government EPA, FTA, Ministry of Transport, ERCA,

AACG, the Police, relevant ministries (specifically Ministry of Water & Energy,

Ministry of Finance & Economic Development,), the private sector (in terms of

vehicles inspection) & the relevant civic societies (in terms of education).

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3. BASELINE SETTING FOR VEHICLE EFFICIENCY

IMPROVEMENT AND EMISSION REDUCTION

One of the major activities of the study on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Program in

Ethiopia is vehicle registration data collection, vehicle data analysis, and vehicle performance

determination for the baseline years 2005, 2008 and 2010 from which progress in

improvement of vehicle efficiency will be tracked as per GFEI guidelines (GEFI,2011). The

process ensures that Ethiopian policymakers have improved information in order to draft

appropriate legislations and guidelines for dissemination of more fuel-efficient vehicles that

have less emission of pollutants and GHG, and to assess the impact of vehicle emission and

fuel quality on the ambient air quality. The accomplished tasks and the way forward in this

direction are discussed in the following section.

3.1 Methodology

To undergo the study of the baseline setting for vehicle fuel efficiency improvement and

emission reductions, there is a certain methodology set by Global Fuel Economy Initiative.

The methodology consists of the following steps:

• Setting the objectives

• Collecting vehicle registration data

• Cleaning data

• Structuring data

• Estimating baseline fuel economy

• Report findings

This step by step methodology has been adopted for ease of analysis and comparing the result

of the study to other countries which underwent similar study.

3.1.1 Objective

The main objective for this study is setting a baseline and developing a national vehicle

database, which is necessary to track improvement in fuel economy and reduction of

emission of carbon dioxide and other pollutant per unit vehicle.

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3.1.2 Data Attributes

Depending on the availability of the vehicles data and the objective of database to be

developed, different data attributes might be considered by different organizations. For

instance the International Energy Agency (IEA) specifies twenty four key attributes on Auto

fuel economy database. While the ERCA recorded a maximum of fifteen data attributes for

the purpose of capturing details of vehicles import, collecting taxes and controlling illegal

smuggling into the country. Out of the fifteen data attributes some of them are irrelevant for

the purpose of auto fuel economy database such as CIF, total tax, country of consignment,

chassis number etc. Besides, some important data attributes were not registered for numerous

vehicles in the database. As such there was a need to look for other sources to fill the gap,

specifically internet was one of the major sources among others. In many developing

countries like Ethiopia, it is difficult to find detailed and full-fledged national information

regarding vehicle data as mentioned above, where in this context the GFEI specifies the

absolute minimum data attributes that are required for auto fuel economy database. These

data attributes include key parameters, directly or indirectly, used for quantifying vehicle fuel

efficiency and CO

emission calculation which are listed below:

i. Vehicle make and model,

ii. Model production year

iii. Year of first registration, if different from model year

iv. Fuel type

v. Engine size

vi. Domestically produced or imported

vii. New or second hand import

viii. Rated Fuel Economy per model and test cycle basis.

ix. Number of sales by model

3.1.3 Data Collection

Newly registered vehicles are those imported and assembled in the country at a particular

year. The appropriate locations for this data are the database of imported vehicles at

Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority (ERCA) and vehicles assembling enterprises.

ERCA is an autonomous federal agency responsible for collecting revenues from customs

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duties and domestic taxes. From ECRA data for newly registered light duty vehicles (LDVs)

for selected years were collected. The vehicle data incorporates brand new vehicles as well as

used ones with gross weight less than3500 kg and having number of seats less than or equal

to 15. Such types of vehicles are known as light duty vehicles.

The light duty vehicles data in this study includes passenger cars and compact cars, saloon

cart car, small sport utility vehicles (SUV), as well as pick-ups.

The data was collected only for the years 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. Except for the latter,

the years were selected based on UNEP guidelines for the ‘‘Pilot Global Fuel Economy

Initiative Project in Ethiopia’’.

The second source was from passenger car assembly plants.

3.1.4 Data Cleaning

With respect to the key data attribute suggested by GFEI, the data acquired from ERCA must

be cleaned and structured. The first approach would have been to clean the vehicle data on

the ERCA’s database by removing unnecessary information, but it was found to be very

difficult due to the severe irregularities and missing data. The second approach would have

been to fill the data with a new format that suits the GFEI scheme. However, this option was

also found to be cumbersome and time taking, at least, to do it manually. The main reason

was that most of the data was unstructured or simply written in single record as shown in

Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Example of unstructured raw data in ERCA’s database

TOYOTA COROLLA (CH#JT1EOEE9000447281,M/Y1992 MODEL-EE90L-AEMDEW,ENG-2E-2451657)

ENGINE 3L-5475634, MODEL LN166L-

PRMDS,M/Y2004 (TOYOTA HILUX DOUBLE CABINE PICKUP

CH.NO. JTFDE626X00128020)

NISSAN X-TRAIL MOD.TVHNLAYT30URAY062Z (CH.NO. JN1TENT30Z0005735 EN.NO. YD22146725)

1*2ND HAND CAR TOYOTA COROLLA,M.Y 1992 (CH#.JT1LOEE9007143710, CC 1295 MOD#.EE90L-

ALMDEW,ENG#.2E-2441128)

TOYOTA CORLLA, CH.NO. JTFDE626X00128021

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

An attempt has been made to develop a computer program to sort out data collected to extract

manufacturing year, model, and cylinder volume. However, due to the strong irregularities

associated with the original registered data at ECRA, the computer program was not effective

in all cases. Hence, the results obtained (sorted data through a computer program) needed

manual cleaning and sorting. The process of data cleaning is presented as follows. Table 3.2

shows raw data received from ECRA database

Table 3.2 Example cleaned and structured data

Make

Model

Condition

Body Type

Engine

Disp. Vol.

Net

Weight

Fuel

Type

Qty

Production

year

Regist.

Year

Fuel

economy

l/km

GHG

Emission

gCO2/km

TOYOTA

COROLLA

USED

SALOON

1300

950

PETROL

1986

2005

12.2

192.9

TOYOTA COROLLA USED SALOON 1300 1000 PETROL 1 2003 2008 15.3 153.8

FORD FIESTA NEW COMPACT 1250 3441 PETROL 3 2010 2010 13.2 178.3

HYUNDAI GETZ NEW COMPACT 1086 961 PETROL 1 2010 2010 17.7 133.0

NISSAN

HARDBODY

NEW

PICK UP

3153

3836

DIESEL

2010

11.3

236.6

TOYOTA HILUX USED PICK UP 2779 3000 DIESEL 1 2002 2008 9.0 296.0

TOYOTA HILUX NEW PICK UP 3000 5535 DIESEL 3 2005 2005 9.6 276.7

TOYOTA LAND

CRUISER

NEW S.WAGON 4164 2060 DIESEL 1 2004 2005 7.5 355.2

TOYOTA MINIBUS USED VAN 2779 1540 DIESEL 1 1988 2005 9.0 296.0

TOYOTA MINIBUS USED VAN 2494 1620 DIESEL 1 2007 2010 11.4 233.7

NISSAN PATROL USED SUV 4169 2400 DIESEL 1 2007 2010 7.5 355.2

V.WAGEN POLO USED SALOON 1450 1435 PETROL 1 1997 2005 10.0 235.4

TOYOTA PRADO USED SUV 2694 2500 DIESEL 1 2007 2010 8.6 309.8

TOYOTA RAV 4 USED SUV 2362 1600 DIESEL 1 2007 2010 8.6 309.8

TOYOTA TACOMA USED PICK UP 2326 1600 PETROL 1 2005 2008 8.2 287.1

DAIHATSU

TERIOS

NEW

SUV

1300

2070

PETROL

2005

11.5

204.7

TOYOTA TUNDRA NEW PICK UP 5663 2710 DIESEL 1 2010 2010 5.1 522.4

TOYOTA VITZ USED COMPACT 997 1000 PETROL 1 2005 2008 12.9 182.7

NISSAN X-TRAIL NEW SUV 3000 1560 DIESEL 1 2005 2005 8.0 333.0

TOYOTA

YARIS

NEW

SALOON

1299

1000

PETROL

2010

15.4

153.1

Table 3.2 shows part of the cleaned data that differentiates vehicles by Make, Model,

Condition, Body type, Engine volume, Net weight, Fuel type, Quantity, Production Year,

Registration year, Fuel economy and CO

emission. These vehicle data are needed to classify

vehicles and determine average fuel economy. The data was made complete by searching and

filling values for parameters such as fuel economy and specific CO

emission from

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

manufacturers’ websites and new vehicle dealers. Even then, after all these attempts, about

8.7% of the total LDVs for the year 2005, 9.14% and 9.12 % for 2008 and 2010 respectively

are not qualified for the database because of lack of the absolute minimum important

information that are required to calculate harmonic average annual fuel economy and average

annual CO

emission.

3.2 Baseline Setting

According to the GFEI methodology, 2005 is used as a baseline year for fuel economy and

emission tracking. In this context, the starting year for the study is 2005. Once this

baseline year is established, GFEI recommends that the same calculations be done for 2008,

2010, 2012 and the following calculations after two years. The total number of newly

registered light duty vehicles for the years: 2005, 2008, and 2010 are given Table 3.3 and

Table 3.4 for imports and locally assembled vehicles, respectively.

Table 3.3 Imported light duty vehicle registered per year

Years 2005 2008 2010

Quantity 5598 10254 14931

Table 3.4 Locally assembled light duty vehicles per year

Years

2005

2008

2010

Quantity

257

450

These light duty vehicles have weights less than3500 kg and seats number between 15 and

24. These vehicles are mainly used for personal transportation in urban areas, for public

transportation purposes as well as for commercial purpose to transport small goods.

Figure 3.1 shows that there is a continuous increase in the number of newly registered light

duty vehicles. The quantity increased by 83% from 2005 to 2008 and by 45% from 2008 to

2010. As local assembly of vehicles in the country started only recently, their share is

insignificant, although it is growing as shown in Table 3.4.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Figure 3.1 Total number of LDVs Registration by year

By comparing manufacturing year and registration year of particular vehicles considered for

this study, vehicles are categorized either as used or brand new. The quantity of registered

light duty vehicles has increased for both new and used ones from year to year as shown in

Table 3.3. However, the rate of growth of used vehicles registration is greater than that of

band new ones. Excessive import of used vehicles would by far contribute to CO

emission,

as used vehicles consume more fuel than brand new.

Table 3.5 Light duty vehicles registration by condition (New and Used)

Import Years

2005

2008

2010

New

2011

3457

4335

Used

3587

6797

10596

Figure 3.2 Light duty vehicle registration by condition (New and Used)

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

New Used

2005

2008

2010

5000

10000

15000

20000

2005

2008

2010

Year

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 3.6 and Figure 3.3 show classification of newly registered used vehicles by age group.

The age group that consists of the highest number of vehicles is 1-5. Considering the new

vehicles, about 50 % of these vehicles are up to 5 years age.

Table 3.6 Classification of registered LDVs by age group for year 2005, 2008, and 2010

Age

Years Old

Registeration Year

2005

2008

2010

2005-2001

2008-2004

2010-2006

1- 5

1989

3875

5500

2000-1996

2003-1999

2005-2001

6-10

555

2111

3195

1995-1991

1998-1994

2000-1996

11-15

895

813

2510

≤ 1990

≤ 1993

≤ 1995

More than 15

1472

2489

1662

Figure 3.3 Number of registered LDVs in different years by age groups

Table 3.7 shows classification by engine displacement volume. While the most frequent

range of engines displacement volume of registered light duty vehicles is 1001-1300 cc for

petrol engines, it is engine group 2500-3000cc for that of diesel engines. These medium size

diesel engines belong to SUV vehicles, pick up and vans. It can be observed that diesel fueled

engines become more in number compared to petrol engines as the engine displacement

becomes greater than 2000 c.c. Usually petrol fuel engines are more compact than diesel fuel

engines.

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1 to 5

6 to 10

11 to 15

> 15

2005

2008

2010

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 3.7 Classification of registered LDVs by engine displacement volume

Volume

2005

2008

2010

(cc)

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

Diesel

≤ 1000

204

142

1190

1001-1300

1834

3378

3361

333

1301-1800

309

417

390

1801-2000

260

122

123

2001-2500

146

1181

186

2763

2500-3000

115

1953

192

3841

1590

4250

Figure 3.4 shows quantities of vehicles that were imported in the years 2005, 2008 and 2010.

It is obvious that by far the most commonly used vehicle in Ethiopia is Toyota brand

followed by Nissan, Suzuki and Mitsubishi. Amazingly the share of Toyota brand is as large

as 72%, 78% and 80% respectively for the years 2005, 2008 and 2010, out of the total import

of LDVs in Ethiopia. The main reasons for Toyota’s brand in wide use in Ethiopia is

assumed to be the abundant availability of spare parts, ample maintenance firms or garages,

and the well known dealer. The people’s perception towards Toyota brand durability is also

very strong.

Figure 3.4 Classification of registered vehicles in no by make

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2005

2008

2010

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

It doesn’t mean that only the brands shown in Figure3.8 are available in Ethiopia. There are

many more brands as well, and just to mention some of them: GMC, Cadillac, Geely, Lexus,

Range Rover, Opel, Fiat ,Hummer, Tata, Land rover, Sangyong, BMW, BYD ,Honda,

Cherry, Isuzu, Holland car etc

Table 3.8 Classification of registered LDVs by body type

Import Year

2005

2008

2010

Compact

118

140

1257

Saloon

1994

3316

3366

SUV 488 796 934

Mini-SUV

399

812

1315

Van

938

2662

3704

Pick up

974

1562

2280

From Table 3.8 and Figure 3.5 show the classification of registered vehicles by body type.

Saloon car took the lead up to 2008 followed by vans that surpassed it in 2010. Although

compact vehicles were insignificant 2005-8, considerable increase of this type of vehicles

occurred in 2010.

Figure 3.5 Body types of registered LDVs by year in number

As it can be seen from Table 3.9 or Figure 3.6 and Figure3.7, the number of annually

registered diesel engine vehicles surpassed that of petrol engine vehicles in 2008. This

indicates that the imported vehicles are mainly for public transport and commercial transport.

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Compact Saloon SUV Mini-SUV Van Pick up

2005

2008

2010

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 3.9 Registration of LDVs by fuel type

Figure 3.6 Classification of registered LDVs by fuel type in number

Figure 3.7 Quantity of LD Vehicles registered by fuel type

3.3 Estimating Baseline Fuel Economy

The harmonic average annual fuel economy of all newly registered vehicles in the country in

a given year is calculated by taking a weighted average by sales indicated in the database

2117

5091

7419

2794

4197

5437

2000

4000

6000

8000

2005 2008 2010

DIESEL

PETROL

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2005 2008 2010

DIESEL

PETROL

TOTAL

Fuel type

2005

2008

2010

Diesel

2117

5091

7419

Petrol 2794 4197 5437

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

     =

    

∑

  

   





Similarly the average annual carbon dioxide emission can be calculated through the weighted

average with sales of each model.

   =

∑

   ∗   





    

Note that all the auto fuel economy data that have been included in the database are in

compliance with the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). As such conversion factor has

not been applied to convert from EPA to NEDC.

European Drving Cycles

The ECE(UDC) +EUDC or combined cycle is performed on a chassis dynamometer. The

entire cycle includes four ECE segments, Figure 1, repeated without interruption, followed by

one EUDC segment, Figure 2. Before the test, the vehicle is allowed to soak for at least 6

hours at a test temperature of 20-30°C. It is then started and allowed to idle for 40s.

Effective year 2000, that idling period has been eliminated, i.e., engine starts at 0 s and the

emission sampling begins at the same time. This modified cold-start procedure is also

referred to as the New European Driving Cycle or NEDC.

ECE 15

The ECE cycle is an urban driving cycle, also known as UDC. It was devised to represent

city driving conditions

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Figure 3.8 ECE 15 or Urban Drive Cycle

Extra Urban Driving Cycle (EUDC)

Figure 3.9 EUDC for high power Engine

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Figure 3.10 EUDC for Low power Engine

The calculation of harmonic average fuel economy and average annual emission has been

done with two scenarios. Calculation for the first scenario is done by using the value of fuel

economy that are available on manufacturers’ websites and from other sources specified for

the brand new vehicles, while the second scenario assumes the deterioration of fuel economy

with age of the vehicles. As considerable portion of the LDVs imported to Ethiopia shown in

Table 3.6 are more than six years old, the fuel economy is assumed to decrease by a certain

factor with in an interval of five years from the value mentioned for the brand new vehicles.

For instance, for vehicles more than 15 years old it is assumed that the fuel economy

decreased by 2km/l from the value specified in the test cycle for brand new vehicles. Such

value was specified by interviewing owners of old vehicles.

3.3.1 Average Fuel Economy and Annual Emission for New Vehicles

As mentioned above, the calculation is done assuming that all vehicles perform as brand-new

in urban and combined (urban and extra urban) cycles. Table 3.10 and Figure 3.11 show that

the fuel economy increased from11.5 km/l in 2005 and 2008 to 12 in 2010. The annual

average fuel economy for diesel and petrol engine light duty vehicles are shown in Tables

3.11 and 3.12, where better improvement in fuel economy is obtained for vehicles with petrol

engines.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 3.10 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Average Annual Emission for all LDVs

Registration Year

2005

2008

2010

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy

(liter/(100 km)

8.7

8.3

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy (km/liter)

11.5

Average Annual Emission (g/km)

217

221

212

Figure 3.11 Harmonic average fuel economy trends for all LDVs in km/liter

Figure 3.12 Average annual emission trend in g/km for all type of LDVs

7.5

7.7

7.9

8.1

8.3

8.5

8.7

8.9

2005 2008 2010

L/(100 Km)

Registeration Year

200

205

210

215

220

225

2005 2008 2010

gCO2/km

Registeration Year

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 3.11 Harmonic average fuel economy and average annual emission for diesel vehicles

Registration Year

2005

2008

2010

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy

liter/(100 km)

9.43

9.52

9.17

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy (km/liter)

10.6

10.5

10.9

Average Annual Emission (g/km)

251

255

245

Table 3.12 Harmonic average fuel economy and average annual emission for petrol vehicles

Registration Year

2005

2008

2010

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy

liter/(100 km)

8.13

7.63

7.35

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy (km/liter)

12.3

13.1

13.6

Average Annual Emission (g/km)

191

180

173

3.3.2 Average Fuel Economy and Annual Emission Considering Age of Vehicle

As the engine deteriorates with age, it is definite that the specific fuel consumption will

increase. Hence, a decrease in fuel economy of 1 km/l, 1.5 km/l and 2 km/l, for vehicles in

the age range of 5-10, 10-15 and more than 15 year, respectively, is assumed.

Table 3.13 and Figure 3.13 show that the fuel economy increased from10 in 2005 and 2008 to

11.3 in 2010. The annual average fuel economy for diesel and petrol engine light duty

vehicles are shown in Tables 3.14 and 3.15. Better improvement in fuel economy is obtained

for vehicles with petrol engines.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 3.13 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Annual Emission for all LDVs

Registration Year

2005

2008

2010

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy

liter/(100 km)

8.85

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy (liter/km)

11.3

Average Annual Emission

254

256

220

Figure 3.13 Harmonic average fuel economy for all registered LDVs in km/liter

considering aging

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

2005

2008

2010

L/(100 km)

Registeration Year

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Figure 3.14 Average annual emission trend for all registered LDVs in g/km considering

aging

Table 3.14 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Average Annual Emission for Diesel

Vehicles

Registration Year

2005

2008

2010

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy

liter/(100 km)

11.63 11.36 10

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy (km/liter)

8.6

8.8

Average Annual Emission (g/km)

310

303

267

Table 3.15 Harmonic Average Fuel Economy and Average Annual Emission for Petrol

Vehicles

Registration Year

2005

2008

2010

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy

liter/(100 km)

9.01

8.20

8.13

Harmonic Average Fuel Economy (km/liter)

11.1

12.2

12.3

Average Annual Emission (g/km)

211

198

191

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

2005 2008 2010

gCO2/Km

Registeration Year

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

3.4 Conclusion

Study from Ethiopian baseline setting of LDVs indicate that the average fuel economy for

vehicles in Ethiopia in 2005 and 2008 were 8.7 L/(100 km or 11.5 km/l with corresponding

emission of 217 and 221 gCO

/km while in 2010 the fuel economy slightly increased to

8.3 L/(100 km) or 12 km/l with a corresponding CO

emission of 212 gCO

/km. Diesel

fueled vehicles were found to travel less kilometer per liter of fuel as compared to petrol

engine vehicles and emit more CO

than petrol fueled vehicles. This results are in lower

regime when compared to that of reported in the literature [ICT,2012], which is caused by

importation of old second hand vehicles.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

4. VEHICLE STOCK STATISTICS

4.1 Methodology

The methodology employed to deal with the vehicle stock statistics in Ethiopia (Addis Ababa

and selected Regional Governments) includes literature review of standard parameters to

describe vehicle classification, vehicle technology and vehicle manufacturers’ specifications,

data collection, and data cleaning and analysis.,

4.1.1 Data Collection

To make complete the statistics of vehicle stock in Ethiopia and estimate environmental

impact of vehicle emission, the annual vehicle inspection data available at Federal Transport

Authority (FTA), computer database for the year 2011/2012 was utilized. The data available

for Addis Ababa have been summarized from sub-city road and transport bureaus using

similar template to include parameters. Even though there have been problems in the data

entry and incomplete information such as engine cc, manufacture year, emission control

technologies etc, the data available in Addis Ababa have been analyzed separately.

In addition, total fleet was collected from selected regional governments (Oromia, Tigray,

Amhara, SNNPR and Benshangul Gumuz) to project the impact of vehicle fleet on fuel

efficiency and emission across the country. The main challenge to get clean data from Road

and Transport bureaus in the regions is that they are not using standard and similar format to

record the vehicles history. Furthermore, in some cases, the data entry problem has left

important parameters (engine cc, year of manufacturing, vehicle category, etc) incomplete

and ambiguous. The total number of vehicles available in Addis Ababa and some regions in

2011/2012 is given in Table 1. The total vehicles number in Ethiopia is estimated to be

344.108 assuming the vehicle population in Afar and Gambella regions is similar

Benshanguel Gumez region nand that was of Harari region is similar to Diredawa and 5 % of

the the totl fleet were not registered due to several reasons.

4.1.2 Classifications

The total fleet in Addis Ababa and regional governments is broadly classified in to three

groups as Motorcycles & Tricycles, Gasoline and Diesel vehicles in order to investigate the

effect on fuel efficiency, fuel economy and emission.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 4.1 Total vehicles inspected in Addis Ababa and Regions (2010/11)

No Location Total number of vehicles

from raw data(not cleaned)

Number of vehicles known engine cc

and year of manufacture (cleaned data)

Motorcycles

and tricycles

Gasoline

vehicles

Diesel

vehicles

Motorcycles

and tricycles

Gasoline

vehicles

Diesel vehicles

light

heavy

Bus

Addis Ababa

5015

123645

68322

2084

87736

27690 23490 2290

Amhara

6023

3834

10268

2121

1755

3585

Benshangul

Gumuz

299

469

334

Oromia

4855

11140

17077

3141

5804

11627

SNNPR-Debub

15225 2888 5663 6840 488 3857

Tigray

4774

1763

5515

3339 1181 2881 620 624

3305

5631

42867

1641 4323 11095 24381 1809

Diredawa

3111

2386

1513

Soimali

1201

1153

2143

Total

43808 152909 153702

Total accounting

for missing data

49,893 344,108

a) Motorcycles and Tricycles

Many motorcycles and tricycles today use gasoline 2-stroke engines due to their smaller size

and lower investment cost. However, 4-stroke engines in motorcycles are available and have

several advantages. A 4-stroke engine is much cleaner and emits substantially less volatile

organic compounds (VOCs) compared to a 2-stroke engines. A 4-stroke engine will probably

cost a little more (10-15%) but uses less fuel, needs no separate lubricating oil, and require

less maintenance. Modern 2-stroke engines with catalyst and direct injection systems have

begun to enter the market. However, so far the endurance of the catalyst is a problem and the

cost of a direct injected 2-stroke engine is similar to a 4-stroke engine.

b) Diesel Vs Gasoline Vehicles

Diesel vehicles (generally comprised of heavy-duty trucks and currently half of all new

passenger cars) are more fuel-efficient compared to petrol vehicles, and emit less CO

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

However, these engines have relatively higher emission of particulate matter (PM) and

Nitrogen oxides (NOx). Gasoline vehicles (generally, passenger cars and some light duty

trucks) are not as efficient as diesel but emissions of particulate matter and NOx are less. CO

emissions are higher for petrol-powered vehicles; however, CO emissions are easily reduced

with a catalyst and are not deemed as harmful to human health as particulate matter and NOx

emissions.

4.1.3 Data Cleaning

Records of vehicle registration obtained from Federal Transport Authority (FTA) are

considered as the main source of vehicle data for this study. The arrangement was made by

Department of Mechanical Engineering and Ethiopian Transport Authority to facilitate access

to vehicle records in transport authority, and other potential data sources.

It is well known that FTA collects and maintains vehicle databases to suit their own needs,

basically for administrative purpose. Such data may or may not be compatible with the type

of data sought for study on fuel efficiency and emission reduction. Hence, data cleaning and

gap filling are needed. Information on attributes such as , manufacturing year, model number,

engine number, engine capacity, cylinder number, fuel type, engine power, front axle

number, rear axle number, front tire number, rear tire number, vehicle gross weight, vehicle

cargo capacity, vehicle seat number, and registration date of the vehicle was obtained from

the transport authority. Vehicle registration data and other parameters obtained from transport

authority were fragmented and incomplete. In addition, there was a total absence of important

attributes for this study such as type of air fuel mixture formation and emission controlling

technology in the database.

The data cleaning process included sorting out the raw data obtained from the authority to fit

the objectives of the study and filling missing information on key vehicle attributes. To fill

missing data and include important vehicle attributes indicated above the following

methodologies were used:

a. Preparation of standard format to sort the data obtained from Transport Authority.

The summary of vehicle classification and important parameters is given in Table 4.2.

b. Unit conversion to make consistent and uniform (e.g. engine capacity was given in cc

and liter)

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

c. Missing performance data, body type, etc. are searched from the manufacturers’

website via internet and vehicle sales agents.

Table 4.2 Summary of vehicle classification and important parameters

Classification

Type of vehicle

Motorcycles and

tricycle

Gasoline

Vehicles

Diesel Vehicles

Brand

√

Model

√

Number of strokes

2 or 4 stroke

4 stroke

Engine CC

√

Motor Power

√

Number of

Cylinder

√

Type of fuel used

Gasoline or

Diesel

Gasoline

Diesel

Type of air fuel

mixture formation

Carburetor and

Gasoline EFI

Type of fuel

injection system

Diesel mechanical or electronic

injection

Year of

manufacture

√

Number of wheels

2 or 3

4 and above

Emission

controlling

technology (ECT)

2 way or 3 way

catalyst

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst

(DOC) or Diesel Particulate

Filter (DPF)

Type of body

Saloon

Van

SUV (Sport

utility vehicle)

Pick up

Light

weight

diesel

Saloon

Van

SUV (Sport utility

vehicle)

Pick up

Cargo

diesel

Light duty truck

Medium duty truck

Heavy duty truck

Bus

Weight (Gross

vehicle weight

rating)

Class 1-8

Registration date

√

4.1.4 Parameters for Data Cleaning

The consultant team has identified key parameters to clean the raw data collected that are

relevant to fuel efficiency and emission issues from Federal Transport Authority and regional

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

governments transport bureaus. These parameters have effect on fuel economy and emission

reduction directly or indirectly. It is obvious that some parameters (air fuel mixture

formation, emission control technologies and fuel injection systems) are specific for

motorcycles, gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles that require special attention for each

vehicle classifications. On the other hand, age, body type, manufacture year, engine capacity,

etc. are common features considered for all vehicle categories.

a) Type of air fuel mixture formation: - Generally, gasoline vehicles have higher fuel

consumption as compared to diesel vehicles due to the air fuel mixture technology. The air

fuel mixture technology in gasoline vehicles is either carburetor system or electronic fuel

injection system. The study has considered that all gasoline vehicles manufactured before

1986 use carburetor systems and those vehicles manufactured since late 1980s use electronic

fuel injection.

The fuel system for diesel vehicles is either diesel mechanical injection or diesel electronic

injection. The diesel electronic injection system is the new technology introduced in late

1990s. Thus, all diesel vehicles manufactured after 2000 are considered to have diesel

electronic fuel injection system which is efficient in fuel delivery based on the load and speed

conditions.

b) Emission Controlling Technology:-The emission controlling technologies have a direct

impact on emission reduction if they are properly used in motorcycles, gasoline and diesel

vehicles. The type of fuel (gasoline or diesel) is the key factor to select the appropriate

emission control technology. When strict vehicle emission standards were first set, all

vehicles did not possesses the technology to significantly lower vehicle emission before

1970. Then, two way catalytic convertors were installed on gasoline vehicles in the mid

1970s and replaced by three way catalytic convertors in early 1980s.

Diesel vehicles were using diesel oxidation catalysts (DOC) as an emission technology to

oxidize hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO) and the soluble organic fraction of

particulate matter (PM) since mid 1990s. A DOC can work at sulfur level higher than 500

ppm, but there is a risk that sulfur contained in the fuel will also oxidize and form sulphate

and thus actually increase the total emission particulate matter. The lower the fuel sulfur

level, the more efficiently the DOC functions. Furthermore, the Diesel particulate filters

(DPFs) are new technologies introduced in mid 2000 that function by capturing particulate

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

matter in a filter and oxidizing the particles. Generally, some of the emission control

technologies not only applied to new vehicles but can be installed or “retrofitted” in older in-

use vehicles. However, many vehicles in Ethiopia are not equipped with emission control

technologies because they are removed intentionally due to the lack of knowledge and

maintenance facilities.

c) Engine Capacity:- The raw data collected from Federal Transport Authority and regional

government transport bureaus include engine capacity having mixed measuring units (cc and

liter), incomplete information and errors in the data entry. The engine capacity of gasoline

vehicles (light duty cars) is considered in the range from 700 to 2200 cc. On the other hand,

light weight diesel vehicles (Saloon, SUV, Minibus and Pickup) have engine capacity from

1200-6000 and heavy weight diesel vehicles (Cargo and Bus) engine capacity is from 1200-

13000 cc.

d) Year of Manufacture:-It is an important parameter to know the technology of the total

vehicle fleet in order to determine the fuel economy and emission reduction. New vehicles

and modern technologies contribute significantly to fuel consumption and emission

reduction. If the raw data do not contain the correct year of manufacture, the vehicles are

ignored in the data cleaning process. The year of manufacture of all motorcycles, tricycles,

gasoline and diesel vehicles is included up to 2011/12 G.C.

e) Gross Weight:- Gross vehicle weight rating is considered as a parameter to classify heavy

weight diesel vehicles (trucks) and buses. The heavy weight diesel vehicles are classified as

light duty (1000-6350 Kg), medium duty (6351-11793 Kg) and heavy duty trucks (11794-

40000 Kg).

f) Body Type:-The shape and size of the vehicle body has a direct impact on the fuel

consumption due to light weight and aerodynamic effect. The raw data has included some

vehicle descriptions in line with the body type such as automobile, double cabin, pickup, bus,

cargo and field vehicles. However, such important parameters were missing for many

vehicles in the raw data, mainly from regional government offices. Therefore, additional

criteria were set to clearly define the body type of gasoline and diesel vehicles. The summary

of vehicle classification by engine and body type is given in Table 4.3.

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2012

4.2 Vehicle Stock Analysis in Addis Ababa

4.2.1 Motorcycles and Tricycles

The total number of motorcycles and tricycles in Addis Ababa classified in year of

manufacture, engine capacity, number of stroke and fuel type are given in Table 4.4. The

number of vehicles in each classification such as engine capacity, number of stroke and type

of fuel are given in percentage adjacent to each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in

year of manufacture is given in each row. For example, the number of vehicles having

engine capacity less than 100 cc is equivalent to 7.1% of the total population. Among those

vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc, the number of motorcycles and tricycles

manufactured before 1989 and 2005-2009 are 24.3 % and 39.9 %, respectively.

Table 4.3 Summary of vehicle classification by body type and engine capacity

Vehicle

Classification by

engine type

Vehicle

classification by

body type

Vehicle

description in

row data

Engine

capacity( cc)

No. seat or

weight (Kg)

Gasoline

Saloon

Automobile

Minibus

Bus

Pickup

Double cabin

Pickup

SUV/ Sport Utility

Vehicle/

Automobile

>1800

4-9

Field vehicles

>1850

4-9

Light weight

diesel vehicles

Saloon

All type

< 1800

4-9

Minibus

Bus

≤15

Automobile

≥ 10

Double cabin/Pickup

Double cabin

SUV /Sport Utility

Vehicle)

Not double cabin

& field vehicles

≥ 1850

4-9

All field vehicles

Heavy weight

diesel vehicles

Bus

Light duty truck

Cargo

< 4000

1000-6350

Medium duty truck

4000-5500

6351-11793

Heavy duty truck

>5500

11794-40000

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2012

The motorcycles and tricycles can use either a two stroke or four stroke cycle engines.

Generally, four stroke cycle engines are better in fuel economy and reduced emissions.

However, almost all motorcycles and tricycles (98.9%) use two stroke cycle engines and 98.0

% of the total population, use gasoline fuel, as shown in Table 4.4.

In this study, generally the engine capacity is classified as low, medium and high capacity

motorcycles and tricycles. Table 4.4 shows that the medium capacity vehicles (151-200 cc)

are 61.8 % in comparison with low and high capacity vehicles. Also, the total number of high

capacity vehicles in Addis Ababa is 5.9 %.

Table 4.4 Distribution of motorcycles and tricycles in Addis Ababa (Total number of

motorcycles and tricycles: 5015)

Motorcycle and Tricycle

Classification

Year of manufacture (%)

≤1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2011

Engine

capacity

(cc)

≤100 (7.1%)

24.3

0.7

1.4

5.4

39.9

28.4

101-150 (25.1%)

4.8

2.3

4.2

6.3

46.2

36.3

151-200 (61.8%)

8.5

2.3

2.6

14.0

59.3

13.3

201-400 (1.2%) 38.5 7.7 7.7 19.2 26.9 0

≥ 400 (4.7%)

16.3

9.2

8.2

13.3

44.9

8.21

No.

stroke

2 (98.9%)

9.4

2.5

3.1

11.5

54.2

19.3

4 (1.1%)

21.7

17.4

13.0

17.4

26.1

4.3

Fuel

type

Gasoline (98.0%)

9.7

2.7

3.2

11.5

53.6

19.4

Diesel (2.0%)

2.3

18.2

70.5

6.8

4.2.2 Gasoline Vehicles

The summary of total fleet in Addis Ababa which was obtained from the raw data is given in

Table 4.5. Table 4.5 includes various parameters designed to evaluate the influence of all

gasoline vehicles on fuel economy and emission reduction such as body type, engine

capacity, year of manufacture, type of air fuel mixture formation and emission control

technology.

The number of gasoline vehicles in each classification such as engine capacity, year of

manufacture, type of air fuel mixture formation and emission controlling technology are

given in percentage adjacent to each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in body type is

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 4.5 Gasoline vehicle distribution by body type in Addis Ababa (Total number of

gasoline vehicles: 123,645)

Category

Classification

Body Type (%)

Saloon

85.76 %

Minibus

10.41 %

SUV

4.19 %

Pickup

13.6%

Engine capacity

(cc)

≤ 1000 (8.7%)

87.7

11.8

0.2

1001- 1300 (55.3%)

99.9

0.7

0.3

1301 – 1500 (4.5%) 96.8

1.9

0.9 0.4

1501 – 1800 (16.4%)

75.6

6.3

17.7

0.4

1801 – 2000 (14.8%)

39.9

53.0

7.0

0.2

≥ 2001 (0.3%)

76.2

12.6

9.5

1.7

Year of

manufacture (G.C)

≤ 1982 (17.5%)

92.0

7.0

0.8

0.2

1982- 1989 (35.3%)

81.2

17.9

0.9

0.1

1990 – 1994 (19.0%)

81.9

7.3

10.6

0.1

1995 – 2000 (9.5%)

84.2

7.3

8.1

0.4

2000- 2004 (7.8%)

85.9

7.4

6.7

0.4

2005 -2009 (9.1%)

93.4

2.1

4.3

0.2

2010-2011 (1.9%)

98.6

0.5

0.7

0.2

Type of air fuel

mixture formation

Carburetor (42.2%)

85.5

13.7

0.7

0.1

Gasoline EFI (57.8%)

85.2

8.0

6.7

0.2

Emission

controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (4.6%)

97.4

1.8

0.5

0.3

Two way catalyst (9.5%)

92.1

6.9

0.9

0.1

Three way catalyst

(85.9%)

83.9

11.2

4.7

0.2

given in each row. For example, the number of gasoline vehicles having engine capacity less

than 1000 and 101-1300 cc is equivalent to 8.7% and 55.3 % of the total population,

respectively. In all engine capacity classification, the majority of vehicles are Saloon except

in engine capacity range from1801-2000cc. In this particular case, 53.0 % are Minibuses.

This indicates that in high engine capacity range (1801-2000 cc), the number of Minibuses

increases considerably. This is evident that most gasoline vehicles with high engine capacity

used for transportation in Addis Ababa are Minibuses that consume more fuel every day.

However, Minibuses are advantageous as they carry 12-14 people at a time for transportation

(passenger to km travel). Furthermore, it is recommended that the use of busses and light

railway systems for mass transportation can improve the fuel economy as far as passenger to

km travel is concerned. Besides the normal fuel consumption of Minibuses, there are other

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

factors such as engine performance, road condition, traffic jam, eco-driving etc that

contribute greatly to higher fuel mileage and emission.

The year of manufacture of all vehicles clearly shows the performance of the vehicles and the

technology incorporated for fuel consumption and emission reduction. The gasoline vehicle

distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.5. The total number of gasoline

vehicles available in Addis Ababa that were manufactured before 2000 are 81.3 %. This

shows that most of the gasoline vehicles are relatively old that could consume more fuel in

normal condition.

The type of air fuel mixture formation systems in gasoline vehicles (conventional carburetor

or Electronic Fuel Injection (EFI)) is determined based on the year of manufacture. The

numbers of vehicles using conventional carburetor and EFI system are 42.2% and 57.8%,

respectively. This indicates that there is an advantage to use vehicles equipped with EFI

system for fuel economy.

There have been two types of emission controlling technologies introduced in gasoline

vehicles, namely, two way and three way catalytic converters. Table 4.5 also includes the

total vehicle distribution in line with emission control technologies. As most vehicles in

Addis Ababa were manufactured in 1980s, most of them are expected to be equipped with

three-way catalytic converters. However, evidences show that emission controlling

technologies are dismantled from many vehicles available in Ethiopia because there are no

rules and regulations that enforce to use them and the fuel quality (leaded gasoline) is a

factor that could damage catalytic converters too.

4.2.3 Diesel Vehicles

Generally, diesel vehicles are categorized into three different groups as light duty vehicles,

cargo trucks and bus. The summary of vehicle distribution for each group is given in Tables

4.6-4.8.

Tables 4.6-4.8 include various parameters designed to evaluate the influence of all diesel

vehicles on fuel economy and emission reduction such as body type, engine capacity, year of

manufacture, type of fuel system and emission control technology. The numbers of gasoline

vehicles in each classification are given in percentage adjacent to each group. Then, the

distribution of vehicles in body type is given in each row. In addition, the body type for light

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

duty vehicles diesel vehicles is the same as gasoline vehicles that include Saloon, Minibus,

SUV and Pickup (single and double cabins).

In the low engine capacity range (≤1800 cc), the Saloon vehicles cover 79.8% compared to

other body type vehicles. In the medium engine capacity range, there is no Saloon vehicles

but the number of Minibus, SUV and Pickup vehicles increases considerably. Furthermore,

the SUV vehicles are 85.2% in the high engine capacity range.

The year of manufacture of all vehicles clearly shows the performance of the vehicle and the

technology incorporated for fuel consumption and emission reduction. The light weight

vehicle distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.6. The share of light

weight diesel vehicles available in Addis Ababa that were manufactured before 2000 is 49.3

%. This shows that almost half of the light weight diesel vehicles are relatively old that could

consume more fuel in normal condition.

The type of air fuel mixture formation systems in diesel vehicles (Mechanical Injection or

Electronic Injection is determined based on the year of manufacture. The numbers of vehicles

using conventional mechanical injection and electronic injection system are 49.2% and

50.8%, respectively.

There have been two types of emission controlling technologies introduced in diesel vehicles

called, Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF). Table 4.6 also

includes the total vehicle distribution in line with emission control technologies. The majority

of vehicles (91.2%) use either DOC or DPF. However, evidences show that emission

controlling technologies are dismantled from many vehicles available in Ethiopia because

there are no rules and regulations that enforce to use them and the fuel quality (high sulfur

diesel) is a factor that could damage the emission controlling technology too.

Table 4.7 shows cargo trucks distribution in gross weight. In low and medium engine

capacity ranges, the number of light duty trucks is considerably high. On the other hand, in

the high engine capacity range (≥5501 cc), there are high number of medium duty trucks. As

it is shown in the Table 4.7, the number of heavy duty trucks manufactured after 2000 is 73.6

% of the total population. This indicates that most trucks available in Addis Ababa are new

types that include improved technology for fuel system and emission control.

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Table 4.6 Light duty diesel vehicle distribution by body type in Addis Ababa (Total number

of vehicles: 35381)

Category

Classification

Body Type (%)

Saloon

(1.3)

Minibus

(30.5)

SUV

(36.8)

Pickup

(31.6)

Engine capacity

(cc)

≤ 1800 (1.6%)

79.8

3.1

8.8

8.4

1801- 2500 (35.3%)

0.0

29.4

23.6

47.0

2501 – 4000 (46.0%)

0.0

37.9

30.1

32.0

≥ 4001 (17.0%) 0.0 13.9 85.2 1.0

Year of

manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (1.8%)

8.3

20.9

57.7

13.2

1982- 1989 (14.4%)

3.2

43.8

40.4

12.6

1990 – 1994 (13.3%)

1.9

30.7

54.4

13.0

1995 – 2000 (19.8%)

0.5

37.7

33.9

27.9

2000- 2004 (21.3%)

0.5

35.0

31.0

33.6

2005 -2009 (23.2%)

1.1

15.1

34.5

49.3

2010-2011 (6.3%)

0.1

17.0

23.4

59.5

Type of fuel

system

Mechanical injection (49.2%)

1.9

37.0

42.2

18.9

Electronic injection (50.8%)

0.7

23.7

31.6

44.0

Emission

controlling

technology (ETC)

No ECT (8.8%) 5.2 42.6 40.9 11.4

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (40.4%)

1.2

35.8

42.5

20.5

Diesel Particulate Filter (50.8%)

0.7

23.7

31.6

44.0

Table 4.8 shows the distribution of diesel buses in various categories such as engine capacity,

year of manufacture, type of fuel system and emission controlling technology. Many buses

have high engine capacity (≥ 4000 cc). The number of buses manufactured after 2000 is 75%

of the total population. This shows that the use of new buses for transportation contributes for

better fuel efficiency. Since many buses are of the new types, their fuel systems and emission

controlling technology include the modern system.

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Table 4.7 Cargo diesel vehicle distribution by gross weight in Addis Ababa

(Total number of vehicles: 30015)

Vehicle Category

Vehicle Classification

Vehicle distribution by gross weight (%)

Light duty

truck

(79.287 %)

Medium duty

truck

(19.87 %)

Heavy duty

truck

(0.44 %)

Engine capacity (cc) ≤ 4000 (29.3%) 88.9 10.5 0.2

4001- 5500 (68.4%)

77.6

22.3

0.1

≥ 5501 (2.2%)

7.3

77.3

15.4

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (2.8%)

36.2

60.1

3.7

1982- 1989 (5.4%)

78.4

18.9

2.7

1990 – 1994 (7.1%)

94.7

4.0

1.3

1995 – 2000 (11.2%)

93.5

6.1

0.4

2000- 2004 (24.2%)

88.9

11.0

0.1

2005 -2009 (39.8%)

84.2

15.8

0.1

2010-2011 (9.6%)

21.4

78.1

0.5

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection (26.4%)

84.8

13.8

1.5

Electronic injection (73.6%)

77.5

22.3

0.1

Emission controlling

technology(ECT)

No ECT

54.0

42.3

3.6

DOC (21.0%)

92.7

6.4

0.9

DPF (73.6) 77.5 22.3 0.1

Table 4.8 Bus distribution in various categories in Addis Ababa ( Total no of buses: 2926)

Vehicle Category

Vehicle Classification

Bus (%)

Engine capacity (cc)

2501-4000

37.3

>=4001

62.7

Year of manufacture (G.C)

<= 1982

6.6

1982- 1989

2.8

1990 - 1994 6.1

1995 - 2000

9.3

2000- 2004

26.6

2005 -2009

45.9

2010-2011

2.8

Type of fuel system Mechanical injection 24.8

Electronic injection

75.2

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No emission controlling technology

8.3

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst

16.5

Diesel Particulate Filter 75.2

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4.3 Vehicle Stock Analysis in Regional Governments

This section explains the vehicle stock analysis of some regional governments that include

Amhara, Benshangul Gumuz, Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray regions. Generally, the row data

collected from each region does not contain complete information for the vehicles registered

in their respective areas. Furthermore, there is no uniform and standard format to record basic

information of all vehicles. Therefore, it is observed that many vehicles are not included in

the analysis because of the lack of important parameters such as vehicle description, engine

capacity, year of manufacture, number of seat and gross weight.

4.3.1 Motorcycle and Tricycle

a) Amhara

The row data obtained from Amhara region does not include complete information on year of

manufacture and number of stroke of motorcycle and tricycle. Thus, the number of stroke

ignored and year of manufacture is partially considered in the analysis.

The total number of motorcycles and tricycles in Amhara region classified in year of

manufacture, engine capacity and fuel type are given in Table 4.9. The number of vehicles in

each classification, such as engine capacity and type of fuel are given in percentages adjacent

to each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in year of manufacture is given in each row.

For example, the number of vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc is equivalent to

13.8% of the total population. Among those vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc,

the share of motorcycles and tricycles manufactured from 2005-2009 is 77.8 %.

The motorcycles and tricycles can use either gasoline or diesel fuel. Most motorcycles and

tricycles (95.9%) use gasoline fuel, as shown in Table 4.9.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 4.9 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Amhara region (Total

number of motorcycles and tricycles: 6023)

Motorcycle and Tricycle

Classification

Year of Manufacture (%)

≤ 2004

2005-2009

2010-2012

Engine

capacity

(cc)

≤ 100 (13.8%)

0.3

77.8

21.8

101-150 (7.1%)

0.7

70.7

28.7

151-200 (74.2%)

1.8

63.6

34.6

201-400 (1.3%)

74.1

25.9

≥400 (3.7%) 0 64.1 35.9

Fuel type

Gasoline (4.1%)

69.8

30.2

Diesel (95.9%)

1.5

66.0

32.4

b) Benshangul Gumuz

The row data obtained from Benshangul Gumuz region does not include engine capacity of

almost all vehicles. Therefore, the consultant team couldn’t find additional information to

analyze the vehicle fleet in the region.

c) Oromia

Like Amhara region, the row data obtained from Oromia region does not include complete

information on number of stroke of motorcycle and tricycle. Thus, the number of stroke is

ignored in the analysis.

The total number of motorcycles and tricycles in Oromia region classified in year of

manufacture, engine capacity and fuel type is given in Table 4.10. The number of vehicles in

each classification, such as engine capacity and type of fuel are given in percentage adjacent

to each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in year of manufacture is given in each row.

For example, the number of vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc is equivalent to

38.6% of the total population. Among those vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc,

the share of motorcycles and tricycles manufactured from 2005-2009 is 66.6 %. Most

motorcycles and tricycles in Oromia region have medium engine capacity (151-200 cc) and

only 6.0 % of the total population has high engine capacity (≥ 400 cc). In addition, most

motorcycles and tricycles (98.1%), use gasoline fuel, as shown in Table 4.10.

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d) SNNPR

The row data obtained from SNNPR does not include complete information on number of

stroke of motorcycle and tricycle. Thus, the number of stroke is ignored in the analysis.

The total number of motorcycles and tricycles in SNNPR classified in year of manufacture,

engine capacity and fuel type is given in Table 4.11. The number of vehicles in each

classification, such as engine capacity and type of fuel are given in percentage adjacent to

each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in year of manufacture is given in each row.

For example, the number of vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc is equivalent to

39.7% of the total population. Among those vehicles having engine capacity less than 100 cc,

the share of motorcycles and tricycles manufactured from 2005-2009 is 81.4 %. Most

motorcycles

Table 4.10 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution by year of manufacture in

Oromia region (Total number of motorcycles and tricycles: 4855)

Motorcycle and Tricycle

Classification

Year of Manufacture (%)

≤ 1990

1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005-2009

2010-2011

Engine

capacity

(cc)

≤ 100 (38.6%)

0.2

0.7

66.6

32.5

101-150 (5.3%)

1.2

0.6

5.4

73.5

19.3

151-200 (50.2%)

0.1

0.6

1.8

72.8

24.6

201-400 (5.1%)

1.9

97.5

0.6

≥ 400 (0.9%)

96.3

3.7

Fuel

type

Gasoline (98.1%) 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 71.8 26.1

Diesel (1.9%)

1.7

78.3

18.3

and tricycles in SNNPR have low engine capacity (up to 150 cc) and only 0.9 % of the total

population have high engine capacity (≥ 400 cc). In addition, most motorcycles and tricycles

(99.4%), use gasoline fuel, as shown in Table 4.11.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 4.11 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in SNNPR region (Total

number of motorcycles and tricycles: 15225)

Motorcycle and Tricycle

Classification

Year of Manufacture (%)

≤ 1990

1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005-2009

2010-2011

Engine

capacity

(cc)

≤ 100 (39.7%)

0.9

81.4

17.7

101-150 (40.4%)

0.5

74.7

24.7

151-200 (18.7%)

0.4

0.2

1.3

15.3

69.9

12.9

201-400 (0.3%)

5.3

10.5

78.9

≥ 400 (0.9%) 0 0 0 0 100 0

Fuel

type

Gasoline (99.4%)

0.1

0.4

1.6

71.8

26.1

Diesel (0.6%)

1.7

78.3

18.3

e) Tigray

The row data obtained from Tigray region also does not include complete information on the

number of stroke of motorcycle and tricycle. Thus, the number of stroke is ignored in the

analysis.

The total number of motorcycles and tricycles in Tigray region is classified in year of

manufacture, engine capacity and fuel type as it is given in Table 4.12. The number of

vehicles in each classification, such as engine capacity and type of fuel are given in

percentage adjacent to each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in year of manufacture is

given in each row. For example, the number of vehicles having engine capacity less than

151-200 cc is equivalent to 42.4 % of the total population. Among those vehicles having

engine capacity less than 151-200 cc, the share of motorcycles and tricycles manufactured

from 2005-2009 is 52.8 %. Most motorcycles and tricycles in Tigray region have medium

engine capacity (151-200 cc) and only 0.3 % of the total population have high engine

capacity (≥ 400 cc). This is considerably low. In addition, most motorcycles and tricycles

(91.1%), use gasoline fuel, as shown in Table 4.12.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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Table 4.12 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Tigray region (Total

number of motorcycles and tricycles: 4774)

Motorcycle and Tricycle

Classification

Distribution in Year of Manufacture (%)

≤ 1990

1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005-2009

2010-2012

Engine

capacity

(cc)

≤ 100 (32.3%)

0.1

0.3

1.0

57.4

41.2

101-150 (22.3%)

0.9

0.1

0.7

16.6

52.1

29.5

151-200 (42.4%)

0.5

0.1

0.4

4.2

52.8

41.9

201-400 (2.6%)

1.1

12.5

60.2

26.1

≥ 400 (0.3%) 0 0 0 0 80.0 20.0

Fuel

type

Gasoline (91.1%)

0.5

0.1

0.4

6.5

51.9

40.6

Diesel (8.9%)

0.3

2.7

80.5

16.5

f) ET-code

The ET-code category is the summary of all ET-code motorcycles and tricycles collected

from each region including Addis Ababa. The row data, obtained from all places, indicated

all vehicles registered in each area with ET-code on the number plates. The team has

summarized the ET-code category as shown in Table 4.13.

The total number of motorcycles and tricycles having ET-code is classified in year of

manufacture, engine capacity and fuel type as given in Table 13. The number of vehicles in

each classification, such as engine capacity and type of fuel are given in percentage adjacent

to each group. Then, the distribution of vehicles in year of manufacture is given in each row.

For example, the number of vehicles having engine capacity less than 151-200 cc is

equivalent to 90.7 % of the total population. Among those vehicles having engine capacity

151-200 cc, the share of motorcycles and tricycles manufactured from 2005-2009 is 53.0 %.

Most ET-code motorcycles and tricycle have medium engine capacity (151-200 cc) and only

0.9 % of the total population has high engine capacity (≥ 400 cc). In addition, most

motorcycles and tricycles (97.0%), use gasoline fuel, as shown in Table 4.13.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 4.13 Summary of ET-code motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Addis Ababa and

some regions (Total number of motorcycles and tricycles: 3305)

Motorcycle and Tricycle

Classification

Year of Manufacture (%)

<=1990

1990-1994

1995-1999

2000-2004

2005-2009

2010-2011

Engine

capacity

(cc)

<=100 (0.5%)

12.5

37.5

50.0

101-150 (7.8%) 3.1 1.6 2.3 26.6 59.4 7.0

151-200 (90.7%)

0.7

0.5

1.9

23.1

53.0

20.8

201-400 (0.1%)

100

>=400 (0.9%)

28.6

14.3

57.1

Fuel

type

Gasoline (97.0%) 0.9 0.6 2.1 22.3 54.0 20.0

Diesel (3.0%)

2.0

57.1

38.8

4.3.2 Gasoline Vehicles

The summary of total fleet in some regions is given from Table 4.14-4.18.

a) Amhara Region

The summary of gasoline vehicles in Amhara region which was obtained from the raw data is

given in Table 4.14. The number of gasoline vehicles with medium engine capacity (1001-

1300 cc) is 37.5% of the total population. In addition, most vehicles are Saloon in comparison

with other body types in low and medium engine capacity range. The gasoline vehicle

distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.14. The total number of gasoline

vehicles available in Amhara region that were manufactured after 2005 indicates 76.3 %.

This shows that most of the gasoline vehicles in Amhara region are relatively new.

Table 14 Gasoline vehicle distribution in Amhara region (Total number of vehicles: 3834)

Category

Classification

Body type (%)

Saloon

(53.0)

Minibus

(31.2)

SUV

(2.5)

Pickup

(13.2)

Engine capacity

(cc)

≤ 1000 (3.8%)

61.5

16.9

9.2

12.3

1001- 1300 (37.5%) 88.5

5.9

2.6 3.0

1301 – 1800 (26.0%)

56.4

19.0

3.8

20.9

1801 – 2000 (32.3%)

7.8

71.4

0.9

19.9

≥ 2001 (0.3%)

0.0

50.0

Year of

manufacture (G.C)

≤ 2004 (23.6%)

42.0

39.1

1.9

16.9

2005 -2009 (39.3%)

56.2

27.3

4.0

12.5

2010-2011 (37.2%)

57.4

30.2

1.2

11.2

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2012

b) Benshangul Gumuz Region

The row data obtained from Benshangul Gumuz region does not include engine capacity of

almost all vehicles. Therefore, the consultant team couldn’t find additional information to

analyze the vehicle fleet in this region.

c) Oromia Region

The gasoline vehicle distribution by engine capacity in Oromia region is given in Table 4.15.

The vehicle classification by body type is not included because there is a lack of information

on the vehicle description in the row data.

The gasoline vehicle distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.15. The total

number of gasoline vehicles available in Oromia region that are manufactured after 2005

indicates 56.1%. This shows that most of the gasoline vehicles in oromia region are relatively

new as compared to Addis Ababa.

Table 4.15 Gasoline vehicle distribution by engine capacity in Oromia region ( Total number

of vehicles : 11,140)

Category

Classification

Engine capacity (cc) (%)

≤ 1000 1001-

1300

1301 -

1800

1801 -

2000

≥ 2000

Year of

manufacture (G.C)

≤ 1982 (15.2%)

4.9

22.8

42.5

28.8

1.0

1982- 1989 (18.4%)

1.7

11.1

10.8

75.4

0.9

1990 – 1994 (4.4%) 1.6

8.5

21.7 67.8 0.4

1995 – 1999 (2.8%)

9.4

8.8

20.6

60.0

1.2

2000- 2004 (3.1%)

2.8

14.0

51.7

29.8

1.7

2005 -2009 (41.9%)

4.9

19.6

52.3

22.9

0.3

2010-2011 (14.2%)

14.6

16.0

51.8

17.3

0.4

ir fuel mixture

formation

Carburetor (29.1%) 3.3

17.3

27.8 50.6 1.0

Gasoline EFI (70.9%)

6.5

16.9

46.2

29.9

0.4

Emission

controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (3.4%)

7.1

17.8

64.0

9.6

1.5

Two way catalyst (7.9%)

5.7

22.3

41.6

30.0

0.4

Three way catalyst

(88.7%)

5.5

16.5

39.9

37.4

0.6

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

d) SNNPR

The gasoline vehicle distribution by engine capacity in SNNPR is given in Table 4.16. The

vehicle classification by body type is not included because there is a lack of information on

the vehicle description in the row data.

The gasoline vehicle distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.16. The total

number of gasoline vehicles available in SNNPR that were manufactured after 2005 indicates

24.5%. This shows that most of the gasoline vehicles in SNNPR are relatively old as

compared to Amhara and Oromia regions.

Table 4.16 Gasoline vehicle distribution by engine capacity in SNNPR (Total number of

vehicles in each category: 2888)

Vehicle Category

Vehicle Classification

Engine capacity (cc) (%)

≤ 1000 1001-

1300

1301 -

1800

1801 -

2000

≥ 2000

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (19.7%) 5.2

39.6

28.1 27.1 0

1982- 1989 (36.5%)

0.6

26.4

14.0

59.0

1990 – 1994 (9.8%)

2.1

25.0

70.8

1995 – 1999 (6.6%)

3.1

15.6

3.1

78.1

2000- 2004 (2.9%)

21.4

35.7

7.1

35.7

2005 -2009 (18.4%)

6.7

40.0

24.4

25.6

3.3

2010-2011 (6.1%)

3.3

40.0

16.7

Air fuel mixture

formation

Carburetor (44.1)

50.0

37.5

12.5

Gasoline EFI (55.9)

9.3

29.6

31.5

29.6

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (1.6%)

3.1

29.1

18.8

48.4

0.7

Two way catalyst (11.1%)

2.8

29.8

20.9

46.5

Three way catalyst (87.3%)

4.4

29.3

20.1

45.1

1.1

e) Tigray Region

The summary of gasoline vehicles in Tigray region is given in Table 4.17. The number of

gasoline vehicles with high engine capacity (1801-200 cc) is 43.8% of the total population.

Most vehicles are Saloon in low and medium engine capacity range in comparison with other

body types. As the engine capacity range increases, the number of Minibuses increases

considerably.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

The gasoline vehicle distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.17. The total

number of gasoline vehicles available in Tigray region that are manufactured after 2005

indicates 13.4 %. This shows that most of the gasoline vehicles in Tigray region are relatively

old as compared to Amhara and Oromia regions.

The type of air fuel mixture formation systems in gasoline vehicles (conventional carburetor

or Electronic Fuel Injection (EFI)) is determined based on the year of manufacture. The

numbers of vehicles using conventional carburetor and EFI system are 54.1% and 45.9%,

respectively. This indicates that the number of vehicles with EFI is relatively smaller than the

conventional carburetor system.

Table 4.17 Gasoline vehicle distribution by body type in Tigray region (Total number of

vehicles: 1763)

Category

Classification

Body type (%)

Saloon

(44.2)

Minibus

(39.2)

SUV

(2.6)

Pickup

(14.0)

Engine capacity (cc)

≤ 1000 (4.0%)

63.8

17.0

6.4

12.8

1001- 1300 (35.8%)

88.9

7.6

1.4

2.1

1301 – 1800 (16.0%)

48.1

18.5

9.5

23.8

1801 – 2000 (43.8%)

4.6

74.5

0.8

20.1

≥2001 (0.4%) 20.0 60.0 0 20.0

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (19.3%)

61.8

22.4

2.2

13.6

1982- 1989 (49.4%)

31.2

51.5

1.0

16.3

1990 – 1994 (9.7%) 36.0

45.6

4.4 14.0

1995 – 1999 (4.3%)

37.3

2.0

23.5

2000- 2004 (3.8%)

62.2

20.0

6.7

11.1

2005 -2009 (5.8%)

56.5

27.5

10.1

5.8

2010-2011 (7.6%)

80.0

7.6

4.4

2.2

Type of air fuel

mixture formation

Carburetor (54.1%)

43.5

39.3

1.6

15.6

Gasoline EFI (45.9%)

45.0

39.1

3.9

12.0

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (4.6%)

83.3

7.4

1.9

7.4

Two way catalyst (8.6%)

63.4

23.8

3.0

9.9

Three way catalyst (86.9%)

40.3

42.4

2.6

14.7

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2012

f) ET-code gasoline vehicles in Addis Ababa and some regions

The summary of ET-code gasoline vehicles in Addis Ababa and some region is given in

Table 4.18. The number of gasoline vehicles with medium and high engine capacity (1501-

1800 cc and 1801-200 cc) is almost the same. Most vehicles in low and medium engine

capacity range are Saloon in comparison with other body types. As the engine capacity range

increases, the number of SUV increases.

Table 4.18 ET-code gasoline vehicle distribution by body type in Addis Ababa and some

regions ( Total number of vehicles: 5631)

Category

Classification

Body type (%)

Saloon

(63.5)

Minibus

(4.6)

SUV

(21.9)

Pickup

(10.0)

Engine capacity

(cc)

≤ 1000 (3.1%)

66.4

6.7

20.1

6.7

1001- 1300 (28.1%)

94.1

1.5

2.7

1.6

1301 – 1500 (5.1%)

85.6

1.4

9.0

4.1

1501 – 1800 (21.8%)

77.7

1.3

16.5

4.6

1801 – 2000 (21.5%)

33.4

10.1

33.0

23.4

≥ 2001 (20.4%)

31.8

7.1

45.8

15.3

Year of

manufacture (G.C)

≤ 1982 (5.6%)

74.0

5.8

8.3

12.0

1982- 1989 (14.3%

70.0

5.5

10.7

13.8

1990 – 1994 (8.4%) 63.7

6.1

19.4 10.8

1995 – 1999 (15.0%)

58.0

4.3

18.8

2000- 2004 (19.4%)

56.0

7.0

22.9

14.0

2005 -2009 (31.6%)

65.7

3.0

28.7

2.6

2010-2011 (5.9%)

63.8

0.4

33.5

2.4

Type of air fuel

mixture formation

Carburetor (13.5%)

73.7

6.2

8.4

11.7

Gasoline EFI (86.5%)

61.9

4.4

24.0

9.8

Emission

controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (0.4%)

62.5

31.2

6.2

Two way catalyst (3.5%)

76.0

4.0

6.0

14.0

Three way catalyst

(96.2%)

63.0

4.6

22.4

9.9

The gasoline vehicle distribution in year of manufacture is also given in Table 4.18. The total

number of ET-code gasoline vehicles that are manufactured before 2000 indicates 37.7 %.

This shows that more than half of ET-code gasoline vehicles in Addis Ababa and some

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

regions are relatively new. Furthermore, since most vehicles are of the new type designs, the

number of vehicles with EFI is relatively higher than the conventional carburetor system. If

ET-code vehicles are periodically maintained and conditioned, they will be fuel efficient.

4.3.3 Diesel Vehicles

This section explains the diesel vehicle stock analysis of some regional governments that

includes Amahra, Benshangul Gumuz, Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray regions. In this study,

diesel vehicles are categorized into three groups as light weight vehicles, heavy weight

vehicles (cargo) and busses. Due to incomplete information (vehicle description and gross

weight) in the raw data, all diesel vehicles (light weight, heavy weight and buses) are treated

together in some regions such as Amhara, Benshagul Gumuz, Oromia and SNNPR.

a) Amhara Region

The summary of diesel vehicle distribution in Amhara region is given in Table 4.19. All

diesel vehicles in Amhara region are grouped by engine capacity and year of manufacture.

The engine capacity and year of manufacture are classified into four and three groups,

respectively. The diesel vehicles manufactured before 2004 are in one group because the raw

data from Amhara region does not show the respective year of manufacture of the vehicles.

The number of diesel vehicles available in Amhara region that are manufactured after 2005 is

70.8%. In addition, most vehicles manufactured in various periods have engine capacity of

2500-4000 cc as shown in Table 4.19.

Table 4.19 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in Amhara region (Total number

of vehicles: 10268)

Vehicle

Category

Vehicle

Classification

Engine capacity (cc) (%)

≤ 1800

1801- 2500

2500 - 4000

≥ 4000

Year of

manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 2004 (29.2%)

2.8

17.2

44.1

35.9

2005- 2009 (44.0%) 3.8

7.3

49.3 39.5

2010 – 2012 (26.8%)

0.8

9.3

40.4

49.5

b) Benshangul Gumuz Region

The raw data of diesel vehicles obtained from Benshangul Gumuz region have relatively

more information in comparison with gasoline vehicles. However, many diesel vehicles are

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

ignored in the data cleaning process due to unknown engine capacity and year of

manufacture.

The summary of diesel vehicle distribution in Benshangul Gumuz region is given in Table

4.20. The number of diesel vehicles available in Benshangul Gumuz region that are

manufactured after 2000 indicates 64.3%. These groups of vehicles are of the new type. This

clearly shows that the type of fuel system and the emission controlling technologies are

modern type that helps to minimize fuel consumption and emission. In addition, most

vehicles manufactured in different periods have engine capacity range of 2500-4000 cc which

is similar to diesel vehicles available in Amhara region.

Table 4.20 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in Benshagul Gumuz region (Total

number of vehicles: 334)

Category

Classification

Engine capacity (cc) (%)

≤ 1800 1801- 2500 2500 - 4000 ≥ 4000

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (1.8%)

100

1982- 1989 (10.7%)

16.7

66.7

1990 – 1994(1.8%) 0

100 0

1995 – 1999 (21.4%)

16.7

33.3

50.0

2000- 2004 (26.8%)

13.3

26.7

60.0

2005 -2009 (37.5%)

4.8

47.6

Type of fuel system

Mechanical Injection(35.7%)

5.0

15.0

45.0

35.0

Electronic Injection(64.3%) 2.8

5.6

38.9 52.8

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (10.7%)

16.7

50.0

16.7

DOC (25.0%)

14.3

42.9

DPF (64.3%)

2.8

5.6

38.9

52.8

c) Oromia Region

The summary of diesel vehicle distribution in Oromia region is given in Table 4.21. The

number of diesel vehicles available in Oromia region that were manufactured after 2000 is

54.1% of the total population. This shows that almost half of the diesel vehicles are of the

new type designs. In addition, most vehicles manufactured from 1990-2004 have engine

capacity of 2500-4000 cc. On the other hand, many vehicles manufactured after 2004 have

higher engine capacity (≥ 4000 cc).

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Table 4.21 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in Oromia region (Total number of

vehicles: 17,077)

Category

Classification

Engine capacity (cc) (%)

≤ 1800

1801- 2500

2500 - 4000

≥ 4000

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (7.0%)

3.9

9.4

10.6

76.0

1982- 1989 (7.7%) 2.2

37.7

30.4 29.6

1990 – 1994 (8.8%)

1.0

21.0

64.8

13.2

1995 – 1999 (22.4%)

1.2

10.5

74.4

13.8

2000- 2004 (33.4%)

1.0

10.5

53.8

34.2

2005 -2009 (18.1%)

2.9

18.6

11.9

66.5

2010-2011 (2.6%) 3.3

30.0

19.3 47.3

Type of fuel system

Mechanical Injection (45.9%)

1.8

16.9

55.4

25.9

Electronic Injection (54.1%)

1.7

14.2

38.1

46.0

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (11.1%)

3.6

21.4

14.3

60.7

DOC (34.8%)

1.2

15.5

68.6

14.3

DPF (54.1%)

1.7

14.2

38.1

46.0

d) SNNPR

The summary of diesel vehicle distribution in SNNPR is given in Table 4.22. The diesel

vehicle distribution in SNNPR have similar pattern with Oromia region as far as engine

capacity and year of manufacture are concerned. The number of diesel vehicles available in

SNNPR that are manufactured after 2000 indicates 69.2%. These groups of vehicles are of

the new type designs. In addition, most vehicles manufactured from 1982-1999 have engine

capacity of 2500-4000 cc. On the other hand, many vehicles manufactured after 2004 have

higher engine capacity (≥ 4000 cc).

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Table 4.22 Diesel vehicles distribution by engine capacity in SNNPR region (Total number

of vehicles: 5663)

Category

.Classification

Engine capacity (cc) (%)

≤ 1800

1801- 2500

2500 - 4000

≥ 4000

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (2.1%)

2.5

8.8

26.2

62.5

1982- 1989 (4.6%)

2.2

30.2

46.9

20.7

1990 – 1994 (7.6%)

2.7

16.4

59.6

21.2

1995 – 1999 (26.4%)

0.5

6.4

66.4

26.7

2000- 2004 (33.4%)

0.3

3.6

40.2

55.9

2005 -2009 (22.1%)

0.7

8.3

28.8

62.1

2010-2011 (3.7%)

3.5

14.6

36.8

45.1

Type of fuel system

Mechanical Injection (40.2%)

1.2

11.1

60.9

26.8

Electronic Injection (59.3%)

0.7

6.1

35.7

57.5

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (4.2%)

2.5

19.8

32.7

45.1

DOC (36.5%)

1.1

10.1

64.1

24.7

DPF (59.3%)

0.7

6.1

35.7

57.5

e) Tigray Region

The summary of diesel vehicle distribution in Tigray region for each group is given in Table

4.23-4.25. Table 4.23 shows that the Saloon vehicles cover 59.4% in comparison with other

body type vehicles in the low engine capacity range (≤1800 cc). In the medium engine

capacity range, there is no Saloon vehicles but the number of Minibus, SUV and Pickup

vehicles increases considerably. Furthermore, the SUV vehicles are 94.9% in the high engine

capacity range.

The total number of light duty diesel vehicles available in Tigray that are manufactured

before 2000 are 49.4 %. This shows that almost half of the light weight diesel vehicles are

relatively old that could consume more fuel during normal operation.

The type of air fuel mixture formation systems in diesel vehicles (Mechanical Injection or

Electronic Injection) is determined based on the year of manufacture. The numbers of

vehicles using conventional mechanical injection and electronic injection system are 49.4%

and 50.6%, respectively.

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2012

There have been two types of emission controlling technologies introduced in diesel vehicles

called Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF). Table 4.23 also

includes the total vehicle distribution in line with emission control technologies. Many

vehicles (93.6%) use either DOC or DPF. However, evidences show that emission controlling

technologies are dismantled from many vehicles available in Ethiopia because there are no

rules and regulations that enforce to use them and the fuel quality (high sulfur diesel) is a

factor that could damage the emission controlling technology too.

Table 4.23 Light duty diesel vehicles distribution by body type in Tigray region ( Total

number of vehicles:3852)

Category

Classification

Body type (%)

Saloon

(0.7)

Minibus

(47.8)

SUV

(18.3)

Pickup

(33.2)

Engine capacity (cc)

≤ 1800 (1.1%)

59.4

6.2

9.4

25.0

1801- 2500 (18.1%)

41.4

12.5

46.2

2501 – 4000 (67.9%) 0 58.5 5.6 35.9

≥ 4001 (12.8%)

3.8

94.9

1.4

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (1.5%)

4.8

33.3

52..4

9.5

1982- 1989 (8.3%)

3.3

54.0

32.6

10.0

1990 – 1994 (10.1%) 0.7

44.3

29.2 25.8

1995 – 2000 (29.5%)

0.1

61.7

15.4

22.8

2000- 2004 (33.6%)

0.1

51.6

14.5

33.8

2005 -2009 (11.5%)

0.6

20.3

14.5

64.5

2010-2011 (5.6%)

1.9

8.7

14.9

74.5

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection (49.4%)

0.9

56.0

22.2

20.9

Electronic injection (50.6%)

0.4

39.8

14.5

45.3

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ETC (6.4%)

3.8

55.7

32.4

8.1

DOC (43.0%)

0.5

56.1

20.7

22.8

DPF (50.6%)

0.4

39.8

14.5

45.3

Table 4.24 shows the cargo trucks distribution in gross weight. In low and medium engine

capacity ranges, the number of light duty trucks is considerably high. On the other hand, in

the high engine capacity range (≥5501 cc), there is a high number of medium duty trucks. As

it is shown in the Table 4.24, the number of cargo trucks manufactured after 2000 is 49.8 %

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

of the total population. This indicates that half of the trucks available in Tigray are new types

that include improved technology for fuel system and emission control.

Table 4.24 Cargo trucks distribution by gross weight in Tigray region (Total number of

vehicles 829)

Category

Classification

Vehicle distribution by gross weight (%)

Light duty

truck

(0.65 %)

Medium duty

truck

(47.7 %)

Heavy duty

truck \

(33.19%)

Engine capacity (cc)

≤ 4000 (39.0%)

44.6

4.1

51.2

4001- 5500 (59.5%)

46.1

8.4

45.5

≥ 5501 (1.5%)

11.1

88.9

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

<= 1982 (5.0%)

12.9

32.3

54.8

1982- 1989 (7.6%) 27.7

8.5

63.8

1990 – 1994 (15.6%)

52.6

1.0

46.4

1995 – 2000 (21.9%)

30.9

4.4

64.7

2000- 2004 (29.0%)

55.0

9.4

35.6

2005 -2009 (18.9%)

52.1

9.4

38.5

2010-2011 (1.9%) 75.0

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection (50.2%)

35.4

6.8

57.9

Electronic injection (49.8%)

54.7

9.1

36.2

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ETC (9.0%) 17.9

25.0

57.1

DOC (41.1%)

39.2

2.7

58.0

DPF (49.8%)

54.7

9.1

36.2

Table 4.25 shows the distribution of diesel buses in various categories such as engine

capacity, year of manufacture, type of fuel system and emission controlling technology.

Many buses have high engine capacity (≥ 4000 cc). The number of buses manufactured after

2000 is 76.1% of the total population. This shows that the use of new buses for transportation

contributes towards better fuel efficiency. Since many buses are of the new type designs, their

fuel systems and emission controlling technology include the modern system.

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2012

Table 4.25 Distribution of buses in various categories in Tigray region ( Total number of

buses: 834)

Vehicle Category

Vehicle Classification

Bus (%)

Engine capacity (cc)

2501-4000

20.5

≥ 4001

79.5

Year of manufacture (G.C)

≤ 1982

2.1

1982- 1989 2.4

1990 - 1994

7.4

1995 - 2000

12.0

2000- 2004

44.6

2005 -2009

27.7

2010-2011 3.8

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection

23.9

Electronic injection

76.1

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT

3.8

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC)

20.0

Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF)

76.1

f) ET-code in Addis Ababa and some Regions

The summary of diesel vehicle distribution in Tigray region for each group is given in Tables

4.26-4.28. Table 4.26 shows that in the low engine capacity range (≤1800 cc), the Saloon

vehicles cover 70.7% compared to other body type vehicles. In the medium engine capacity

range, there is no Saloon vehicle but the number of Minibus, SUV and Pickup vehicles

increases considerably. Furthermore, the SUV vehicles are 94.8 % in the high engine capacity

range.

The total number of light duty diesel vehicles available in Addis Ababa that were

manufactured after 2000 indicates 34.1 %. The type of air fuel mixture formation systems in

diesel vehicles (Mechanical Injection or Electronic Injection) is determined based on the year

of manufacture. The numbers of vehicles using conventional mechanical injection and

electronic injection system are 34.1% and 65.9%, respectively.

There have been two types of emission controlling technologies introduced in diesel vehicles

called Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF). Table 4.23 also

includes the total vehicle distribution in line with emission control technologies. Many

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

vehicles (95.5%) use either DOC or DPF. However, evidences show that emission controlling

technologies are dismantled from many vehicles available in Ethiopia because there are no

rules and regulations that enforce to use them and the fuel quality (high sulfur diesel) is a

factor that could damage the emission controlling technology too.

Table 4.26 ET-code light weight diesel vehicles distribution by body type ( Total number of

vehicles: 12756)

Category

Classification

Body type (%)

Saloon

(2.3)

Minibus

(3.9)

SUV

(53.5)

Pickup

(40.3)

Engine capacity (cc)

≤ 1800 (3.2%)

70.7

2.8

10.1

16.5

1801- 2500 (19.8%) 0

8.8

26.5 64.7

2501 – 4000 (39.4%)

1.8

31.4

66.8

≥ 4001 (37.5%)

3.5

94.8

1.7

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (1.5%)

21.7

12.0

41.0

25.3

1982- 1989 (9.0%)

7.5

6.4

50.6

35.5

1990 – 1994 (7.6%)

5.3

6.3

66.2

22.2

1995 – 2000 (16.1%)

2.0

2.6

61.2

34.2

2000- 2004 (22.9%)

1.9

2.4

50.8

44.9

2005 -2009 (32.0%)

0.4

3.3

50.5

45.8

2010-2011 (11.0%)

5.5

52.4

42.1

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection (34.1%)

5.0

4.9

58.6

31.5

Electronic injection (65.9)

0.9

3.4

50.9

44.9

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT (4.5%)

17.3

11.6

42.0

29.1

DOC (29.6%)

3.2

3.8

61.1

31.9

DPF (65.9%)

0.9

3.4

50.9

44.9

Table 4.27 shows cargo trucks distribution in gross weight. In low and medium engine

capacity ranges, the number of light duty trucks is considerably high. On the other hand, in

the high engine capacity range (≥5501 cc), there are high number of medium duty trucks. As

it is shown in the Table 4.27, the number of heavy duty trucks manufactured after 2000 is

51.4 % of the total population. This indicates that most trucks available in Addis Ababa are

new types that include improved technology for fuel system and emission control.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 27 ET-code cargo trucks distribution by gross weight (Total number of vehicles:

24381)

Category

Classification

Vehicle classification by gross weight (%)

Light duty

truck (1000-

6350 Kg)

Medium duty

truck (6351-

11793 Kg)

Heavy duty

truck (11784-

40000 Kg)

Engine capacity (cc) ≤ 4000 (6.7%) 50.0

7.9

42.1

4001- 5500 (4.0%)

64.4

4.9

30.7

≥ 5501 (89.3%)

44.5

0.9

54.6

Year of manufacture

(G.C)

≤ 1982 (13.9%)

78.8

1.5

19.9

1982- 1989 (15.1%)

67.3

2.1

30.6

1990 – 1994 (9.4%)

51.2

1.1

47.8

1995 – 2000 (10.3%)

57.0

0.8

42.1

2000- 2004 (7.1%)

40.8

4.2

55.0

2005 -2009 (34.2%)

28.3

1.2

70.4

2010-2011 (10.1%)

13.2

1.0

85.8

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection (48.6%)

65.5

1.6

32.9

Electronic injection (51.4%)

27.2

1.7

71.7

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ETC (21.3%)

77.1

1.9

21.0

DOC (27.3%)

56.5

1.4

42.1

DPF (51.4%)

27.2

1.7

71.1

Table 4.28 shows the distribution of diesel buses in various categories such as engine

capacity, year of manufacture, type of fuel system and emission controlling technology. ET-

code buses are used for mass transportation. Many buses have high engine capacity (≥ 4000

cc). The number of buses manufactured after 2000 are 28.0% of the total population. This

shows that many ET-code buses are old types that could consume more fuel in normal

condition.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Table 4.28 ET-code buses distribution in various categories (Total number of buses: 2080)

Vehicle Category

Vehicle Classification

Bus (%)

Engine capacity (cc) 2501-4000 8.2

≥ 4001

91.8

Year of manufacture (G.C)

≤ 1982

14.4

1982- 1989

20.0

1990 - 1994

7.7

1995 - 2000

30.2

2000- 2004

8.1

2005 -2009

13.3

2010-2011

6.6

Type of fuel system

Mechanical injection

72.0

Electronic injection

28.0

Emission controlling

technology (ECT)

No ECT 26.7

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC)

45.3

Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF)

28.0

4.4 Impact of Vehicle Stock Composition on Fuel Economy

4.4.1 Motorcycles and Tricycles

a) Engine capacity vs fuel economy

Figure 4.1 shows the distribution of motorcycles and tricycles by engine capacity in number

in Ethiopia. Most motorcycles and tricycles have medium engine capacity (151-200 cc).

These groups of motorcycles and tricycles contribute towards better fuel consumption

compared to high engine capacity.

Besides the engine capacity, the number of stroke is an important factor that should be

considered for fuel consumption. The data collected from some regions does not show the

type of stroke that the motorcycles and tricycles have. On the other hand, most motorcycles

and tricycles in Addis Ababa use 2-stroke cycle gasoline engines that contribute towards high

fuel consumption.

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2012

Fig 4.1 Summary of motorcycles and tricycles distribution in Ethiopia by engine capacity

b) Year of manufacture vs fuel economy

Figure 4.2 shows the distribution of motorcycles and tricycles by year of manufacture in

number in Ethiopia. Many motorcycles and tricycles available in Ethiopia were manufactured

in the years 2005-2009. This is due to the introduction of new tricycles across the country to

use them for transportation. Generally, the use of new vehicles with appropriate technology

contributes towards better fuel economy. On the other hand, few motorcycles and tricycles

were manufactured before 1989. These groups are very old and consume more fuel if they are

not maintained periodically.

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

<= 100 101 - 150 151 - 200 201 - 400 >=401

Engine Capacity

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2012

Fig 4.2 Distribution of motorcycles and tricycles in Ethiopia by year of manufacture

c) Fuel type vs fuel economy

Figure 4.3 shows the distribution of motorcycles and tricycles by fuel type in number in

Ethiopia. Almost all motorcycles and tricycles across the country use gasoline fuel. Since

diesel vehicles are fuel efficient, the use of 2-stroke cycle gasoline engines results in more

fuel consumption. It is recommended to introduce more 4-stroke cycle gasoline engines,

although they are relatively expensive.

Fig 4.3 Distribution of motorcycles and tricycles by fuel type

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

<= 1989 1990 - 1994 1995 - 1999 2000 - 2004 2005-2009 2010 &

2011

Year of Manufacturing

5000

10000

15000

20000

Diesel Gasoline

Fuel Type

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2012

4.4.2 Gasoline Vehicles

a) Engine capacity vs fuel economy

Figure 4.4 shows the distribution of gasoline vehicles by engine capacity in number in

Ethiopia. Most gasoline vehicles in Addis Ababa and some regions have medium engine

capacity (1001-1300 cc). Since gasoline vehicles are not fuel efficient as compared to diesel

vehicles, high population of medium engine capacity gasoline vehicles contributes to low fuel

consumption and better fuel economy.

Fig 4.4 Distribution of gasoline vehicles by engine capacity

b) Year of manufacture vs fuel economy

Figure4.5 shows the distribution of gasoline vehicles in Ethiopia by year of manufacture in

number. Many gasoline vehicles available in Ethiopia are manufactured during the period

1982-1989 which is more than 23 years ago. Unless these vehicles are properly maintained

and their engines are overhauled, they are not fuel efficient. Moreover, the fuel efficiency

mainly depends on the type of air fuel mixture formation.

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

<= 1000 1001- 1300 1301 - 1800 1801 - 2000 >=2001

Engine Capacity

Number of Gasoline Vehicles by Engine Capacity

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

Figure 4. 5 Summary of gasoline vehicles distribution by year of manufacture

c) Type of air-fuel mixture formation vs fuel economy

Figure4.6 shows the distribution of gasoline vehicles in Ethiopia by type of air fuel mixture

formation in number. The number of gasoline vehicles with Electronic Fuel Injection system

(EFI) is greater than that of the conventional carburetor systems. This is recommended for

better fuel efficiency.

4.4.3 Diesel Vehicles

Diesel vehicles (generally comprised of light duty vehicles, heavy trucks (cargo) and buses)

are more fuel-efficient compared to petrol vehicles, and that emit less CO2. There are other

factors that contribute to high fuel consumption such as body type, engine capacity, year of

manufacture and type of fuel injection systems. As it is discussed in the previous sections, the

raw data collected from regional governments does not have complete information to analyze

the influence of various factors on fuel economy. Therefore, this section only addresses the

effect of year of manufacture and fuel system on fuel economy.

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

<= 1982 1982 - 1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010 &2011

Year of manufacturing

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2012

Figure 4.6 Summary of gasoline vehicles distribution by type of air fuel mixture

formation

a) Year of manufacture vs fuel economy

Figure 4.7 shows the distribution of diesel vehicles in Ethiopia by year of manufacture. The

number of new diesel vehicles imported to Ethiopia increases gradually from time to time.

Most diesel vehicles available in Ethiopia were manufactured in the range of 2005-2009. This

indicates that the old heavy duty trucks and busses are being replaced by the new ones. This

trend will encourage the use of new diesel vehicles for better fuel economy.

Figure4. 7 Summary of diesel vehicles distribution by year of manufacture

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Carburator Gasoline EFI

Type of air fuel mixture formation

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

<= 1982 1982 -

1989

1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010

&2011

Year of Manufacturing

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

b) Type of air-fuel mixture formation vs fuel economy

Figure 4.8 shows the distribution of diesel vehicles in Ethiopia by type of fuel system. The

number of diesel vehicles with Electronic Injection system (EI) is twice greater than that of

the conventional Mechanical Injection systems. Since most diesel vehicles were

manufactured after 2005, they are equipped with electronic injection system. Therefore, the

use of more diesel vehicles with Electronic Injection system improves fuel economy.

Figure 4. 8 Summary of diesel vehicles distribution by type of fuel system

48000

50000

52000

54000

56000

58000

60000

62000

Diesel Electronic Diesel Mechanical Injection

Type of fuel system

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2012

5. FUEL QUALITY REVIEW AND IMPROVEMENT OF FUEL

STANDARD

5.1 Fuel Utilization Policy and Consumption

The economic development of a country along with infrastructure expansion and shifts to

industrialization is exacerbating the demand for fuel. For instance, Ethiopia imports fuel on

average that costs about 768 million USD per annum and this covers 77% of the total export

earnings (MM and E, 2007). The demand is expected to increase with the economic and

population growth of the country. The economic changes are associated with changes in

economic sectors such as transport sector which uses only commercial energy such as

gasoline and diesel as opposed to noncommercial forms of energy. Therefore, the share of

commercial energy in the development process will increase because of rapid growth of

inherently modern fuel using sectors such as transport sector of the economy (Mosse, 2002).

The transport energy policy of Ethiopia emphasizes ensuring efficient utilization of energy

and partially substituting by local products, to save scarce foreign exchange to achieve

sustained and continued economic and social development of the country (MW and E, 2010).

The policy emphasis is that the energy must be friendly to the environment through adopting

different technology intervention to reduce petroleum fuel consumption products in the

transport sector and substituting wherever possible to new non petroleum fuels.

5.1.1 Diesel and Gasoline Consumption in Ethiopia from (2006-2012)

Petroleum is one of the valuable commodities in the world. It is used to generate power to

drive the science-invented tools of Transport, Industry, Agriculture and Communication that

touches every aspect of our daily life (World Bank, 1999). The level of petroleum

consumption is directly related to economic development and the number of population

(Mosse, 2002). The data of the Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise shows that Ethiopia consumes

petroleum products, gasoline and diesel, which has were increased during the year 2006 -

2012 (Table 5.1). During these years diesel had the largest share compared to gasoline. This

shows that diesel consuming transport activities has constituted the largest share and increase.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

In these years, gasoline consumption increased by 27.9%, whereas that of diesel was 35.61%.

During all those years, diesel oil has been the dominant fuel demand of the total consumption

(Table 5.1 and Figure 5.1). As the economic growth of the country is expected to continue

even at higher rate, the demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to continue rising rapidly.

Table 5.1 Petroleum product sales (consumption) quantity in metric ton

Product

type

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Diesel

851,381

927,939

1,107,193

1,199,673

1,250,641

1,154,560

1,232,894

Gasoline

147,514

144,637

143,024

149,966

162,070

151,634

154,238

Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise

Figure 5.1 Trend of gasoline and diesel consumption

5.1.2 The Biofuel Development and Utilization Strategy in Ethiopia

In order to ensure the countries continued development program and the national fuel

security, it is important to increase fuel utilization and substitution by locally produced fuels

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

consumption of gasolineand diesel in Mt

Year

diesel

gasoline

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

such as biofuel. The “Ethiopian Biofuel Development and Utilization Strategy’’ is targeted

for supply of fuels from locally produced biofuel with the objective of the strategy being to

ensure the production of biofuel without affecting food self sufficiency, enable import

substitution and improve balance of payment (MM and E, 2007).

Fuel demand is getting higher while the supply is getting less. The oil price increase, which is

the result of the mismatch between the demand and supply, is becoming a barrier for stable

and sustainable economic development for many countries, particularly for developing

countries like Ethiopia. In order to address these fossil fuel constraint shortage realities, the

Ethiopian government has formulated a bio-fuel strategy for the energy sector. The strategy is

expected to satisfy the demand for fuel by undertaking projects that accelerate bio-fuel

development activities in the country. This will enable the country to withstand the

challenges of unexpected fossil fuel price increase, to save foreign earnings, and even earn

produce foreign currency (MM and E, 2007).

The biofuel development strategy paper (2007) by ministry of water resources and energy

indicates that the production of ethanol in the medium and long term development can grow

to 1 billion liters (1 million m

) through agro-processing industry integrated development, in

particular sugar industry, by cultivating 700,000 ha suitable land for sugar cane plantation.

The sugar corporation agency of Ethiopia planned to produce 128,165,000 liters (128,165m

)

of ethanol from four sugar industries namely Fincha, Metehara, Wonji and Tendaho at the

end of 2012 though Tendaho sugar factory has not yet started production (Guta, 2012).

Local production and utilization of ethanol has already been started as a blending to gasoline

(B5) which has been upgraded to (B10). Data obtained from Ministry of Water Resources

and Energy indicates that a total of 5,880,294.00 liter has been blended in 2012 which shows

an increment of 4,231,961 liter compared to 2008. The blend of ethanol with gasoline shows

an increment from year to year but the share of the blend compared to gasoline and diesel

consumption is insignificant (Table 5.2 and 5.3).

Although the production of bio-diesel is not yet started, the country possesses ample potential

for production of this fuel. The country has promoted production mainly of three feedstock,

Castor crop, Jatropha curcas, and palm tree. In light of this, at national level, the country has

allocated 23.3million ha to feedstock production (Guta, 2012).

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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By considering diverse potential energy sources and commitment of the government in

creating enabling policies and legal grounds to facilitate the utilization of these resources as

opportunity, it is possible to produce much more bio-fuel.

Table 5.2 Total amount of ethanol blending from 2008-2012

S/N

Year

Total Blending(Lt)

Remark

2008

1648333

2 2009 5146642

2010

6110936

2011

2827372

Incomplete data

2012

5880294

Source: Ministry of Water and Energy Bio Fuel Development Coordination July, 2012

Table 5.3 trend of Total blend of ethanol, Gasoline and Diesel (2008-2012)

Year

Total blend(m

)

Gasoline( m

)

Diesel(m

)

2008

1648.333

194004.503

1244037.078

2009

5146.642

203420.959

1347947.191

2010 6110.936 219839.396 1405214.606

2011

2827.372

205683.513

1297258.427

2012

5880.294

209215.702

1387521.347

5.2 International and National Fuel Quality Standards

5.2.1 Parameters Included In the Fuel Quality Studies

The fuel quality parameters which are included in the discussion of fuel quality studies are

discussed below. Some of the parameters have an impact on air pollution and/or motor

vehicle emissions while others are related to motor vehicle performance (ORBITAL &

CSIRO, 2008).

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a) Gasoline Fuel Quality Parameter

(i) Octane is a measure of petrol’s ability to resist auto-ignition, which can cause engine

knock. There are two laboratory test methods to measure petrol octane numbers: one

determines the Research Octane Number (RON) and the other is the Motor Octane Number

(MON). RON correlates best with low speed, mild-knocking conditions and MON correlates

with high-temperature knocking conditions and with part-throttle operation. Vehicles are

designed and calibrated for a certain octane value. When a customer uses petrol with an

octane level lower than that required, knocking may result, which could lead to severe engine

damage. Engines equipped with knock sensors can handle lower octane levels by retarding

the spark timing. However, fuel consumption and power suffer at very low octane levels and

knock may still occur. Using petrol with an octane rating higher than that required will not

improve the vehicle’s performance. Most Euro-compliant engines are designed for 95 RON.

In Europe, the min RON is 95, while in USA and Ethiopia is 91.

(ii) Sulfur: Sulfur naturally occurs in crude oil. If the sulfur is not removed during the

refining process it will contaminate the vehicle fuel. Sulfur has a significant impact on

vehicle emissions by reducing the efficiency of catalysts. Sulfur also adversely affects heated

exhaust gas oxygen sensors. Reductions in sulfur will provide immediate reductions of

emissions from all catalyst-equipped vehicles on the road.

(iii) Lead: Unleaded petrol is necessary to support vehicle emission control technologies

such as catalytic converters and oxygen sensors. As vehicle catalyst efficiencies are

increased, tolerance to lead contamination decreases. Even slight lead contamination can

destroy a modern catalysts. The phase out of lead is supported but consideration must be

given to the existing vehicle fleet as some older vehicles may require lead (or lead

replacement additives) for engine protection.

(iv)Volatility: Sufficient volatility of petrol is critical to the operation of spark ignition

engines with respect to both performance and emissions. Volatility is characterized by two

measurements, vapor pressure and distillation. The vapor pressure of petrol should be

controlled seasonally to allow for the differing volatility needs of vehicles at different

temperatures. Lower vapor pressure is required at higher temperatures to reduce the

possibility of hot fuel handling problems and to reduce evaporative emissions.

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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b) Diesel Fuel Quality Parameters

(i) Cetane Number/Cetane index: Cetane index is the ‘natural’ Cetane of the fuel, which is

calculated based on measured fuel properties. The Cetane number is measured on a test

engine and reflects the effects of Cetane improver additives. To avoid excessive additive

dosage, a minimum difference between Cetane index and Cetane number must be maintained.

Increasing the Cetane number improves fuel combustion, reduces white smoke on startup,

and tends to reduce NOx and PM emissions. NOx seems to be reduced in all engines, while

PM reductions are engine-dependent. These Cetane number effects also tend to be non-linear

in the sense that increasing the Cetane number produces the greatest benefit when starting

with a relatively low Cetane number fuel.

(ii) Density and Viscosity: Variations in fuel density (and viscosity) result in variations in

engine power and, consequently, in engine emissions and fuel consumption. Changes in fuel

density affect the energy content of the fuel brought into the engine at a given injector setting.

Reducing fuel density tends to decrease NOx emissions in older technology engines that

cannot compensate for this change.

(iii) Sulfur in Diesel: Diesel fuel sulfur contributes significantly to fine particulate matter

(PM) emissions, through the formation of sulfates both in the exhaust stream and, later in the

atmosphere. Sulfur can lead to corrosion and wear of engine systems. Furthermore the

efficiency of some exhaust after-treatment systems is reduced as fuel sulfur content increases,

while others are rendered permanently ineffective through sulfur poisoning.

5.2.2 International Fuel Quality Standards

In 2007, the European Commission undertook a review of these fuel quality requirements.

The review addressed fuel specifications meeting stricter EU air quality targets and future

auto emissions requirements, and also greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation

fuels (International Fuel Quality Center, 2012). The review outcome was incorporated in a

new directive as shown in the Table 5.4

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Table 5.4: Gasoline and Diesel specifications (applicable in Europe 2009-2012)

Parameter

Limits

Gasoline

RON Min 95

MON

Min 85

Sulfur

Max 10 ppm

Aromatics

Max 35 vol%

Oxygen

Max 2.7wt%

Diesel

Cetane number

Min51

Cetane index

Min 46

Sulfur

Max 10 ppm

Flashpoint

Min 55

Density at 15

820 kg/m

-845kg/m

Source: International Fuel Quality Center compiled from Directive 98/70/EC as amended and EN 228:2008 and

EN, 590:2009

In USA, the EPA imposed a drastic reduction in the permitted lead level in petrol, from 0.13

g/L in 1985 and then to 0.026 g/L from January 1986. This was considered to be the lowest

lead level that would allow continued operation of older engines. Finally ``sales of leaded

petrol were banned from January 1995. The current American gasoline fuel specification is

shown in the Table 5.5(ORBITAL & CSIRO, 2008).

Gasoline Sulfur Content: the maximum allowable sulfur limits in national standards, sulfur

limits in local/regional standards (such as specifications for cities/states) of United States is

11-99ppm as shown in table 5.5 and Fig 5.3 ( International Fuel Quality Center, 2012).

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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Figure 5.2 Global maximum gasoline sulfur content (source: www.ifqc.org)

Table 5.5 ASTM Specifications for Gasoline and Diesel (2012)

Parameter

Limits

Test methods

Gasoline

RON

Min. 91

ASTM D 2699

Total Sulfur µg/g

Max.11-99

Density @ 15

C.(g/ml)

0.705-0.74

ASTM D 1298

Lead Content, g/L

Max. 0.013

IP 352

Diesel

Cetane number

Min 40

D 643

Cetane index

Min 40

D976-80

Sulfur, ppm(µg/g),max

% mass, max

0.05

0.50

D5453

D2622

D129

Flashpoint

Min 55

5.2.3 Over View of Ethiopian Fuel Specifications

Fuel quality in Ethiopia is maintained through a regulation of Ethiopian petroleum supply

enterprise and specifications made by Ethiopian quality and standards authority. Ethiopian

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

2012

quality and standards authority has established national fuel quality specifications based on

Ethiopian standard which in most cases is in agreement with American Society of Testing

and Materials (ASTM) Standard (Table 5.6).

Figure 5.3 Global maximum sulfur content of diesel (source: www.ifqc.org)

Table 5.6 Ethiopian Specifications for Gasoline and Diesel 2012

Parameter

Limits

Test methods

Gasoline

RON

Min. 91

ASTM D 2699

MON

Total Sulfur( µg/g)

Max (1000 ppm)

ASTM D 4294

Density @ 15

C.(g/ml)

0.705-0.74

ASTM D 1298

Lead Content, g/L

Max. 0.013

IP 352

Diesel

Cetane number

Cetane index

Min 48

ASTM D 976

Total Sulfur % Weight

Max 0.50(5000ppm)

ASTM D 1552

ASTM D 4294

Flashpoint Min 52

C ASTM D 93

Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise June, 2012

Final Report on Pilot Global Fuel Economy Initiative Study in Ethiopia

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100

Gasoline lead content: as it can be noticed from national fuel specification (Table 5.6) and

historical data from Ethiopian petroleum supply the maximum allowable lead content is

0.013g/L which is unleaded.

Gasoline sulfur content: Ethiopian standards authority set the maximum allowable sulfur

content gasoline to be 1000ppm (Table 5.6 and Fig 5.3) which is by far greater than current

standards of USA and Europe.

Diesel sulfur content: Standard diesel sulfur content is specified at max 5000 ppm which will

be a bottle neck to apply emission control technologies (Table 5.6 and Fig 5.4).

5.3 Data Collected on Fuel Quality (historical data)

The data for selected parameters were collected from the data base of Ethiopian Petroleum

Enterprise and compiled into excel file for analysis purpose. The data were compiled for the

last 8 years. The average, minimum, and maximum values of these data were evaluated for

Table 5.7 Summary of Gasoline Fuel Quality in 2011

Test/parameter

Specification

Test method

Average

Min

Max

Research Octane Number

(RON)

Min. 91 ASTM D 2699 90.52 90 91.8

Density @ 15

C.(g/ml)

0.705-0.74

ASTM D 1298

0.721

0.711

0.739

Total Sulfur % Weight

Max. 0.10

ASTM D 4294

0.0244

0.004

0.1

Lead Content, g/L

Max. 0.013

IP 352

0.007

Table 5.8 Summary of Diesel Fuel Quality in 2011

Test/parameter

Specification

Test method

Average

Min

Max

Density @15

C(g/ml)

Report

ASTM D4052

0.861

0.844

0.865

Total Sulfur % weight

Max 0.5

ASTM D 1552

ASTM D 4294

0.469

0.402

0.5

Flash point Pensky-Martens

Closed cup,

Min 52

ASTM 93

77.94

Kinematic

Viscosity

Centistokes @37.8

Min 1.9

Max 4.1

ASTM D445 3.686 2.9 4

Cetane index

Min 48

ASTM D97

49.18

Carbon residue Rams

bottom10% (% weight)

Max 0.35

ASTM D524

0.123

0.03

0.2

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each year to compare with the standards as shown in Tables (5.7 to 5.10 for three consecutive

years) while summary of the date for the year 2004 to 2010 are shown in the annex. The

review indicates the imported gasoline is unleaded gasoline but has very high sulfur content.

Table 5.9 Summary of Gasoline Fuel Quality in 2010

Test/parameter

Specification

Test method

Average

Min

Max

Research Octane Number (RON)

Min. 91

ASTM D 2699

90.18

91.3

Density @ 15 Deg. C.(g/ml)

0.705-0.74

ASTM D 1298

0.724

0.722

0.738

Total Sulfur % Weight

Max. 0.10

ASTM D 4294

0.012

0.004

0.06

Lead Content, g/L

Max. 0.013

IP 352

0.007

Table 5.10 Summary of Diesel Fuel Quality in 2010

Test/parameter

Specification

Test method

Average

Min

Max

Density @15

C(g/ml)

Report

ASTM D4052

0.856

0.834

0.866

Total Sulfur % weight

Max 0.5

ASTM D 1552

ASTM D 4294

0.458

0.340

0.50

Flash point Pensky-Martens

Closed cup, Deg.C

Min 52

ASTM 93

76.71

Kinematic Viscosity Centistokes

@37.8 Deg.C

Min 1.9

Max 4.1

ASTM D445

3.53

2.4

Cetane index Min 48 ASTM D97 (calc) 49.71 41 55

Carbon residue Rams bottom10%

Distillation Residue % weight

Max 0.35

ASTM D524

0.121

0.09

0.17

5.3.1 Global and National Sulfur Levels in Fuels

Global levels of sulfur in fuels differ greatly, by country and region. Depending on the crude

oil used and the refinery configurations, sulfur levels in petrol range from a value less than 10

ppm to as high as 1000 ppm or more (Figure 5.2). In diesel fuel, levels range from a value

less than 10 ppm to more than 10,000 ppm (Figure 5.3). Europe, the US, and Japan have

put in place measures to reduce sulfur to lower levels (below 10-15 ppm), often along with

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emission standards that require advanced emission control technologies that cannot be used

with higher sulfur fuels (UNEP, 2006).

Around the world, many countries are lowering the limit of allowable sulfur in fuels and

adopting tailpipe emission standards to reduce vehicle pollution (UNEP, 2006). However, the

global picture is mixed. As shown in Figures 5.2 and 5.3, the sulfur levels in both gasoline

and diesel in the majority of developing countries of Africa, including Ethiopia, is very high.

The data acquired from Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise showed that the max

allowable sulfur level in gasoline is 1000 ppm whereas the maximum allowable sulfur level

in diesel is 5000ppm. The Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise is very stringent in

maintaining the set standards especially from 2006 onwards (Table 5.11, Figure 5.4 and 5.5).

Different researches conducted on vehicle emission and engine operability indicate that fuel

quality intimately affects vehicle emissions as the vehicle and its fuel (and oil) form an

integrated system (Blumberg et al., 2003). The vehicle-fuel system determines the quality

and amount of emissions and the extent to which emission control technologies will be able

to reduce the emissions. Reducing sulfur levels in fuels is especially important in reducing

the smallest particles and can reduce vehicle emissions in general (UNEP, 2006). This

demonstrates that there are substantial emission reductions to be achieved when sulfur in

diesel is reduced from very high levels that are common in many developing countries like

Ethiopia, which have more than 5,000 ppm in diesel fuels, to very low levels (50 ppm and

less). This, not only reduces PM emissions further but also enables the introduction of

emission control technologies that provide even greater emission reductions.

Table 5.11 Sulfur content of imported Diesel for the previous 8 years

Year

Average

Minimum

Maximum

2004

0.913

0.70

0.99

2005

0.610

0.31

0.97

2006

0.499

0.14

3.9

2007

0.448

0.28

0.48

2008

0.481

0.40

0.93

2009

0.477

0.38

0.48

2010

0.458

0.34

0.50

2011

0.469

0.40

0.50

2012

0.475

0.47

0.48

NB: specification (total sulfur % by weight 0.5 or 5000ppm)

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Table 5.12 Sulfur content of imported gasoline (From 2004-2011)

Year

Average

Minimum

Maximum

2004

0.061

0.004

0.09

2005

0.015

0.004

0.09

2006

0.056

0.02

0.09

2007

0.075

0.07

0.08

2008

0.0391

0.004

0.09

2009

0.038

0.004

0.09

2010 0.012 0.004 0.06

2011

0.0244

0.004

0.1

NB: specification (total sulfur % by weight 0.1 or 1000ppm)

Figure 5.4 Trend of sulfur content of diesel

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

total sulphur %by weight

Year

average

standarerd

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Figure 5.5 Trend of sulfur content of gasoline

5.4 Conclusions and Recommendations

Ethiopia imports its entire petroleum fuel requirement, and the demand for petroleum fuel is

rising rapidly due to a growing economy and expanding infrastructure. By 2012 Ethiopia has

imported 1,232,894.00 Mton of diesel and 154,238.00Mton diesel while the total blend of

ethanol with gasoline was 5,880,294.00 Lt. Report from Ministry of Water Resources and

Energy indicates that Ethiopia imports fuel on average at the expense of 768 million USD per

annum and this covers 77% of the total export earnings. Given the current and expected oil

price trends and volatility, the gradual substitution of imported petroleum fuels by biofuel and

a diversification of energy sources will rapidly gain macroeconomic importance. In order to

ensure the continued development program and the national fuel security, the government of

Ethiopia has set a clean energy plan to increase fuel efficiency and substituting fossil fuel

demand by locally produced fuels such as biofuel.

The historical data obtained from petroleum supply of Ethiopia demonstrates the fuel

parameters of the imported gasoline and diesel comply with the set standards but as stated in

section 5.3, the sulfur content of gasoline and diesel are 1000ppm and 5000ppm, respectively.

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

total sulphur %by weight

Year

average

standarerd

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This is categorized under high sulfur content of fuel. The high sulfur content of fuel reduces

the vehicle efficiency and affects the environment and human health. With high sulfur fuel, it

will also make the application of vehicle emission control technologies difficult.

As can be noted, in Ethiopia, vehicle numbers are increasing rapidly from time to time.

Hence, the high-sulfur fuels continue to be the norm and to inhibit the introduction of new

vehicle technologies. Therefore in order to allay the mounting human health impacts of

increasing vehicle numbers and reduce the burden associated with cleaning up existing

vehicles, Ethiopia needs to institute policies earlier to lower sulfur levels to 50ppm which

allows for the further benefit of advanced control technologies for diesel vehicles. Studies

show the benefits of sulfur reduction far outweigh the costs. The U.S. EPA found human

health and environmental benefits due to sulfur reduction was ten times higher than the costs.

Furthermore the considerable potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions adds further

to the health, environmental, and social benefits of sulfur reduction (Blumberg et al., 2003).

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6. ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF VEHICLE EMISSION ON AIR

POLLUTION

6.1 Introduction

Air pollution is the presence of pollutants in the ambient air in such concentration as to harm

human, plant, or animal life, cause damage to materials and structures, cause climate or

weather change. Urban air pollution usually occurs when a high level of emission (from

vehicles or other combustion sources), combines with poor dispersion conditions.

Meteorological and topographic conditions affect dispersion and transport of these pollutants.

Motor vehicles are sources of a number of air pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen

oxides, un-burnt hydrocarbons, suspended particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and volatile

organic compounds. Nearly 50% of global carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HCs) and

nitrogen dioxide (NO

) emissions from fossil fuel combustion come from petrol and diesel

engines. In city centers and congested streets, traffic can be responsible for about 80-90% of

these pollutants and this situation is expected to be severe in cities in developing countries

where vehicle emission monitoring is not in place. Vehicle emissions mainly result from fuel

combustion or evaporation. The major pollutants emitted from gasoline fueled vehicles are

CO, HCs, and NOx (oxides of nitrogen), whereas the presence of sulfur compounds in diesel

fuel results in sulfur dioxide (SO

) and particulate matter (PM) emissions.

Diesel exhaust emission usually contains particles in the size range between 50nm and

100nm. Particulates from gasoline vehicle exhaust emission are well below 40nm in

diameter, with large proportion of this being in the order of 10 nm. Particles with diameter

below 0.1µm are ultrafine particles. Particles between 0.1 and about 1µm in diameter are

typically formed from ultrafine particles by coagulation and adsorption of gaseous material in

the atmosphere onto preexisting particles. These particles can remain suspended in the air for

long period of time (several weeks). These particles and the ultrafine particles are also known

as fine particles (PM

2.5

), i.e. particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5µm

[Bacha, 2007; Tiagarajam, 2004; Farnlund, 2001].

According to the WHO assessment, diseases associated to air quality deterioration have been

responsible for millions of premature deaths, majority of which is in the developing

countries.

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Local pollutants such as carbon monoxide, air toxins and particulates, tend to concentrate

adjacent to busy roadways, especially where geographic and climatic conditions trap

pollution and produce ozone [www.vtpi.org].

Air pollution is a serious environmental concern in large cities. Often, a significant portion of

city residents are exposed to poor air quality. Childhood cancers are frequent in households

living adjacent to high traffic roads [www.vtpi.org]. In addition, as shown in Figure 6.1

people who travel by car are exposed to more air pollution than people traveling by other

modes. According to a study, road pollution emissions in Austria, France and Switzerland

cause significant increases in bronchitis, asthma, hospital admissions and premature deaths.

Figure 6.1 Relative air pollutants (HC& NO

) exposure by transportation mode

[www.vtpi.org]

Air quality limit values are designed, and set to serve as guidance in reducing human health

impacts of air pollution. In order to reduce the impact of air quality deterioration, it is

necessary to know the state of the ambient air quality. Accordingly, this part of the study

deals with the measurement and assessment of common air pollutants related to motor

vehicle emissions in the Addis Ababa City.

6.2 Methodology

This section deals with the methodological aspects of air quality measurement. The

methodology followed in this part of the study includes literature review, measuring method

and instruments, measuring site selection and evaluation of the results. Collected primary and

secondary data were analyzed by comparing against WHO guidelines and EPA Ethiopia

guidelines given in Table 6.1.

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Table 6.1 EPA Ethiopia and WHO air quality guidelines [EPA, 2003; WHO, 2005]

Pollutant

EPA Ethiopia guideline

WHO guideline

Guideline

value (µg/m

)

Average time

Guideline value

(µg/m

)

Average time

Sulfur dioxide

500

10 minutes

500

10 minutes

125

24 hours

1year

1 year

Nitrogen dioxide

200

1 hour

200

1 hour

1 year

Carbon monoxide

100,000

15 minutes

100,000

15 minutes

60,000

30 minutes

60,000

30 minutes

30,000

1 hour

30,000

1 hour

10,000

8 hours

10,000

8 hours

Particulate matter

2.5

24 hours

1 year

1year

6.2.1 Literature Review

There is very little information available concerning urban air pollution in Addis Ababa city.

A study was conducted on the magnitude and variation of CO pollution due to vehicle

emissions in Addis Ababa city by Abera Kume at 40 different sites (Kume, 2010). According

to this study none of the sampling sites showed CO concentrations above WHO guideline

limit. The result indicated that the mean value for 15 minutes CO concentration was found to

be 2.1 ppm and 2.8 ppm for wet and dry seasons, respectively.

6.2.2 Measuring Methods and Instruments

In this study, only the measurements of common vehicle emissions/pollutants viz. carbon

monoxide, (CO), particulate matter (PM

2.5

), nitrogen dioxide (NO

), and sulfur dioxide (SO

)

were carried out mainly due to time limitation and shortage of available resources including

measuring instruments and associated technical problems.

CO and PM

2.5

measurement were carried out employing continuous measuring instruments

comprising of uninterrupted recording of concentrations throughout the measurement period.

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The measurements of NO

and SO

were carried out using non-continuous measuring

instruments.

Two sampling periods, dry and wet seasons, were selected. All measurements were taken

during working days from 8:30 am to 5:30 pm local time. The measuring instruments were

fixed at the edges of the roads at a height of 1 meter above ground.

a) Carbon Monoxide Measurement

HOBO model CO data logger was used to measure the level of CO in the ambient air at all

selected sites. The instrument was calibrated as per the specification of the manufacturer

before commencing the intended measurements. Measurements were conducted by placing

the instrument 1 meter above the ground at the edge of the selected road. The instrument was

set at a sampling interval of 1 minute during the whole period of the study lasting from 8:30

AM to 5.30 PM. Measured data were evaluated and presented.

b) Particulate Matter Measurement

Particles between 0.1 and about 1µm in diameter are typically formed from ultrafine particles

by coagulation and adsorption of gaseous material in the atmosphere onto preexisting

particles. These particles can remain suspended in the air for long period (several weeks).

These particles and the ultrafine particles are also known as fine particles (PM

2.5

)

i.e.,

particles with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5µm.

In this work, the measurement of PM

2.5

was carried out mainly because of the fact that most

particulate matter associated with vehicular emissions are fine particles of less than 2.5µm in

diameter.

Concentration of fine particulate matter was measured using the University of California

Berkeley Particle Monitor (UCB PM Monitor). The UCB Particle Monitor can detect

particles with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microns (PM

2.5

) and less. Measurements were

conducted by placing the instrument 1 meter above the ground at the edge of a road. The

instrument was continuously recording the concentration of fine particles in the ambient air

from 8:0 am to 5.30 pm.

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c) Nitrogen Dioxide Measurement

The measurements of nitrogen oxides concentration in the ambient air were carried out using

Oldham Multi-gas detector. Measurements were performed at different time intervals on

discrete basis.

d) Sulfur Dioxide (SO

) Measurement

concentration in the ambient air was measured using Crown Gasman detector. On-road

measurements were performed at different time intervals on discrete basis.

Table 6.2 Measurement sites and location

Site

GPS location

Code

Name

S1 Aduwa Square (Megenagna) N 09

00.145’; E 038

47.560’

Arada (Arada building)

N 09

01.977’; E 038

45.187’

Betel

N 09

00.225’; E 038

41.515’

Bob Marley Square (Imperial Hotel )

N 09

00.156’; E 038

48.005’

Bole Bridge

N 08

59.351’; E038

47.550’

Bus Station (Addis Ketema)

N 09

02.038’; E038

43.947’

Entoto (St. Mary Church)

N 09

05.182’; E 038

45.735’

Kaliti Road Intersection (Traffic light)

N08

55.967’; E038

46.002’

La gare Traffic Light

N 09

00.701’; E 038

45.192’

S10

Mexico Square

N 09

00.638’; E 038

44.699’

S11

Teklehaimanot Square

N 09

01.728’; E038

44.583’

S12

Urael Traffic Light

N 09

00.659’; E 038

46.503’

6.3 Measurement Sites

Given the limitation in time and resource, only 12 sampling sites were selected. In line with

the objective of the project, which aimed at assessing the severity of air pollution due to

vehicle emission, on-road measurements were carried out at selected sites (road junctions,

roundabouts and squares). The criteria used for site selection were:

• congested traffic area suspected of high fleet pollutant emissions

• high population density relative to receptor-dose levels, both short- and long-term

(permanent/residence)

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• atmospheric considerations such as spatial and temporal variability of pollutants and

their transport

• height and density of buildings

• building use

• traffic frequency and composition

• background pollution

The selected measurement sites in Addis Ababa city are shown Table 6.2.

6.4 Results

6.4.1 Carbon Monoxide

Figure 6.2 and Figure 6.3 show the variation of CO concentration with time as recorded by

the instrument in the interval of time shown for two representative sites (Bole bridge and

Teklehaimanot Square). The site at Bole Bridge hosts high traffic intensity of light vehicles

since the circulation of vehicles above 3t is restricted in this area while the site at

Teklehaimanot Square is a commercial area that hosts heavy traffic of different vehicle

categories. According to Figure 6.2 higher levels of CO are observed in the morning up to

lunch time in Bole bridge and this level decreases very gradually in the afternoon.

The tendency at Teklehaimanot looks different. The CO level was seen to increase in the

morning until around 12:00am when the highest peak was observed. Lowest values were seen

between 12:00am and 13:30pm (lunchtime). The level of CO afterwards showed more or less

a regular pattern oscillating around a mean value. The maximum recorded value of CO at this

site for the dry season is 16.4ppm.

Nevertheless, as can be seen from Table 6.3, none of the averages are greater than the values

indicated in the WHO guideline. Only two sites (S6 and S11) show values greater than 50%

of the WHO guideline for 8-hour average. Particular to these two sites is the relatively higher

circulation level of diesel vehicles.

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Figure 6.2 Measured CO concentration at Bole Bridge during the dry season

Figure 6.3 Measured CO concentration at Teklehaimanot Square during the dry season

8:30 9:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30

17:30

CO, ppm

Time, hour

8:30 9:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30

CO, ppm

Time, hour

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Table 6.3 CO concentrations at different sites collected during the dry season

Site

CO Concentration, ppm

Code

Name

Max 15-

minute

average

Max 30-

minute

average

Max 1-

hour

average

8-hour

average

Maximum

Aduwa Square (Megenagna)

7.1 7.1 6.0 3.8 15.9

Arada (Arada building)

3.8 3.0 2.8 2.2 12.5

Betel

4.4 4.3 3.7 2.5 12.5

Bob Marley Square (Imperial Hotel )

6.9 6.3 4.9 3.7 13.4

Bole Bridge

15.0 10.7 6.1 4.4 16.4

Bus Station (Addis Ketema)

15.0 7.8 7.1

5.9

20.8

Entoto (St. Mary Church)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Kaliti Road Intersection

15.0 5.1 4.8 3.9 11.0

La gare Traffic Light

6.3 5.8 4.8 3.6 14.4

S10

Mexico Square

9.9 7.6 7.3 3.7 17.7

S11

Teklehaimanot Square

16 9.0 7.5

5.2

23.2

S12

Urael Traffic Light

5.3 5.1 4.8 3.2 12.9

Average

8.7 6.0 5.0 3.5 14.2

WHO guideline for CO: 15minute = 90ppm; 30 minute = 50ppm; 1hr =25ppm; 8hr = 10ppm

EPA guideline for CO: 15minute = 90ppm; 30 minute = 50ppm; 1hr = 25pp; 8hr = 10ppm

Measurement of CO concentrations during the wet season was conducted only for three

representative sites due to time constraints. The result of measurements is given in Table 6.4.

Table 6.4 Wet season CO concentration level at different sites

Site

CO concentration, ppm

Max 15-

minute

average

Max 30-minute

average

Max 1-

hour

average

8-hour

average

Maximum

Bus station

(Addis Ketema)

37.4

23.4

17.2

2.8

44.2

Mexico Square

14.5

13.1

8.1

4.9

22.7

Teklehaimanot Square

17.2

8.0

1.5

24.2

As can be seen from Table 6.4 the results obtained for the wet season at the same sites are

slightly higher than those of the dry season.

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6.4.2 Particulate Matter

Figure 6.4 shows that the PM

2.5

concentration builds up in the morning attaining a maximum

around 9:30 am after which the concentration gradually drops and remains at relatively low

level until it starts to increase after lunch time reaching a maximum around 15:00 pm. It can

be said that this observed pattern is related to the traffic intensity during the rush hours.

Figure 6.4 PM

2.5

concentrations at Bole Bridge

Figure 6.5 PM

2.5

concentrations at Teklehaimanot Square

In the case of Figure 6.5, one can observe that the concentration builds up until 15:00 pm, in

line with the traffic intensity associated with the commercial activities of the area.

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

8:30 9:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30

2.5

Concentration,

g/m

Sampling time, hr

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

8:30 9:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30

PM,

g/m

Sampling time, hour

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Table 6.5 gives 24-hour averages and maximum levels of PM

2.5

for the dry season. As can be

seen in the table, the measured values at all sites are higher than the WHO guideline limit. On

the other hand, except sites S1, S2, S4 and S7, all other sites show values greater than the

Ethiopian EPA guideline limit. If one considers the maximum for the different sites, both

limit values are highly exceeded in all 12 sites.

Consequently, people residing and working along roads and those frequently using passenger

vehicles are expected to encounter severe health effects due to such high level of PM

2.5

in the

ambient air.

Table 6.5 PM

2.5

concentration data for different sites during the dry season.

Site

2.5

Concentration, µg/m

Code Name 24-hour average Maximum

Aduwa Square (Megenagna)

54.8

4471.9

Arada (Arada building)

30.7

624.0

Betel

135.6

6576.4

Bob Marley Square (Imperial Hotel )

43.6

511.1

Bole Bridge

97.3

1982.6

Bus Station (Addis Ketema)

70.4

1827.5

Entoto (St. Mary Church)

27.2

808.5

Kaliti Road Intersection (Traffic light)

271.4

9082.6

La gare traffic light

83.5

3268.8

S10

Mexico Square

228.6

17169.3

S11

Taklehaimanot Square

342.1

2933.7

S12

Urael Traffic Light

165

1837.5

WHO guideline for MP

2.5

: 24 hr average = 25µg/m

EPA Ethiopia guideline for PM

2.5

: 24 hr average = 65µg/m

The measurement of fine particulate matter (PM

2.5

) concentration levels in the ambient air

during the wet season was conducted at selected three sites. The results of measurement are

presented in Table 6.6.

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Table 6.6 PM

2.5

concentration levels at the three sites during the wet season

Site

2.5

concentration, µg/m

24-hour average

Maximum

Bus station (Addis Ketema)

34.6

4824.6

Mexico Square

59.3

1529.6

Teklehaimanot Square

60.9

3531.6

WHO guidelines for PM

2.5

: 24 hr average = 25 µg/m

; EPA (Ethiopia) Guideline for PM

2.5

: 65µg/m

It can be seen from the data in Tables 6.5 and 6.6 that the results obtained for PM

2.5

during

the wet season is lower than those obtained during the dry season for the same sites. This

difference arises as a result of agglomeration and wet precipitation of fine particles. In

addition, horizontal wind enhances dispersion of fine particles decreasing their concentration

in the ambient air.

6.4.3 Nitrogen Oxide (NOx)

The level of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in the ambient air was not detected by the

instrument during the field survey at all selected sites. This indicates that the concentration of

in the ambient air is relatively low in the Addis Ababa city. The instrument used for NO

concentration level measurement can detect values less 0.1ppm, which is lower than the

WHO and EPA Ethiopia guideline limit value of 0.11ppm (200µg/m

). The low level of NO

may be attributed to variety of factors including combustion flame temperature, residence

time of the nitrogen gas in the peak temperature zone of combustion flame, and the amount of

oxygen present in the peak temperature zone of the flame. Oxides of nitrogen are invariably

produced in any combustion process involving air containing high proportion of nitrogen.

The rate of formation of oxides of nitrogen is dependent on the pressure and temperature,

with high temperatures being conducive to higher formation rates provided that the residence

time and oxygen available are sufficient. However, the rate of formation of nitrogen oxides

can be suppressed by the presence of hydrocarbons (HCs) and carbon monoxide. This would

result in low NOx emissions.

In addition, the atmospheric life time of NO

is relatively short. Nitrogen dioxide transforms

in the air to gaseous nitric acid and toxic organic nitrates. It plays a major role in the

atmospheric reaction of ozone formation, a major component of smog. Nitrogen dioxide is

also a precursor of nitrates, which contributes to increased respiratory fine particulate matters

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in the atmosphere. This transformation and dispersion of NO

in the atmosphere would

account for the low concentration level of this pollutant in the ambient air.

6.4.4 Sulfur Dioxide

The concentration of SO

in the ambient air was not detected by the instrument (Crown

Gasman detector) at all measurement sites during the study period. This indicates that SO

concentration in the ambient air is low. Sulfur oxides formed during fuel combustion are

further oxidized to solid sulfates, to a certain extent within the engine and completely in the

atmosphere. The low level of SO

concentration would arise from the transformation and

dispersion factors as it is released from the exhaust tailpipe. Its lifetime in the atmosphere

depends strongly on meteorological conditions and is usually short. It is highly soluble in

water, forming weak sulfurous acid. In the presence of excess oxygen, SO

is oxidized to

sulfur trioxide (SO

) in the atmosphere. The SO

rapidly combines with water forming

sulfuric acid. Generally, SO

is further oxidized to sulfuric acid and sulfates, in the

atmosphere, forming an aerosol often associated with other pollutants in droplets or solid

particles extending over wide range sizes. Sulfur dioxide and its oxidation products are

removed from the atmosphere by wet and dry deposition. Sulfur dioxide can also be removed

from the atmosphere through condensation and precipitation. Under favorable meteorological

conditions SO

released from the vehicle exhaust system to the atmosphere can be diluted by

dispersion and transportation thereby maintaining low level concentration in the ambient air.

The volume and composition of vehicle emission is affected by many factors such as the size

of the engine, the age of the vehicle, the air-to-fuel ratio, etc.

The higher the size (capacity) of the engine that powers a vehicle, the higher will be the fuel

per km consumption and hence the greater the volume of the emissions. The age of a vehicle

closely correlates to the type of emissions control equipment installed in the vehicle. Older

vehicles tend to have traveled a greater number of kilometers, which causes both engines and

emission control equipment to wear.

In general, a petrol engine operating with a fuel-air ratio greater than the stoichiometric will

produce more products of incomplete combustion, such as carbon monoxide (CO),

hydrocarbons (HC) from unburned fuel and particulate emissions. If the mixtures is slightly

lean, the formation of NOx (mainly NO and a smaller proportion of NO

) is favored. The

formation of NOx increases strongly with peak flame temperatures if sustained long enough

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in the presence of oxygen. Thus, particulates can be reduced through higher temperature and

faster combustion, whereas reductions in NOx emissions require reduced combustion

temperature.

In Addis Ababa, most of the circulating vehicles are old vehicles. This means vehicles with

old engines and poor emission controls are in circulation. In addition, there is lack of proper

instrumentation and expertise to tune engines of vehicles for optimum conditions (acceptable

emission levels and power output).

Altitude is also an important factor. Fuel combustion efficiency of motor vehicles declines

with altitude resulting in increased pollutant emission, particularly CO. Addis Ababa is

located between 2200 and 2800 meter above sea level. For vehicles circulating in the city,

unless properly tuned the air-fuel mix becomes rich (more fuel than the stoichiometric), due

to the less amount of oxygen available, thus favoring less complete combustion, i.e., more

CO, more HC and more particulate and less NOx.

Therefore, based on the foregoing discussion, it is reasonable to expect high amount of CO,

HC and particulate matter in Addis Ababa.

However, the level of pollutant concentration in ambient air is also highly affected by

dispersion factors like the meteorological and physiographical conditions of a city (wind

speed and direction, precipitation). According to a study [Faiz, 1996], most air pollution

disasters have occurred in areas where natural air ventilation is restricted by terrain.

Addis Ababa borders to the north with Entoto Mountain which is about 3000 (meters above

sea level) masl and slopes down to the south, south-east and south-west.

In addition the city, which is stretched horizontally, is characterized by very low vertical

density. It occupies an estimated area of 54 thousand hectares. Low rising buildings occupy a

significant proportion of the city while the high rising buildings are mostly located parallel to

main roads.

The city is often regarded as one having three major seasons: the dry season from October to

January, the small rainy season from February to May and the heavy rainy season from June

to September. As can be seen in Table 6.7, the city gets rain for more than half of the year

(132 days).

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Table 6.7 Climate data for Addis Ababa (Source: Ethiopian National Meteorological

Agency)

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Year

Average max

temperature,

23.2

24.7

26.6

25.2

25.6

21.2

21.3

22.9

23.0

23.9

22.2

2009

Average min.

temperature,

9.0

10.0

11.9

12.0

12.3

11.5

12.0

10.5

6.0

8.5

Rainfall, mm

19.5

2.7

28.4

80.6

82.0

349.9

387.6

112.7

45.8

4.4

65.0

Average max

temperature,

23.8

23.6

23.5

24.1

22.8

20.4

20.9

21.3

23.5

22.5

22.8

2010

Average min.

temperature,

9.6

12.2

12.3

13.3

13.5

11.9

11.6

12.2

11.7

11.2

9.5

8.9

Rainfall, mm

2.6

79.2

55.5

97.6

24.0

231.1

313.9

205.3

237.8

1.8

25.7

14.5

Average max

temperature,

24.0

25.0

24.6

25.9

26.0

24.0

22.0

21.2

21.8

23.0

27.0

2011

Average min.

temperature,

10.0

11.5

13.4

13.0

12.0

11.8

11.7

10.0

11.0

7.0

Rainfall, mm

14.1

13.1

44.5

17.0

50.0

180.0

56.0

195.9

184.5

0.0

32.4

0.0

Average max

temperature,

25.0

26.0

26.6

25.0

27.0

25.0

21.0

21.3

23.0

24.5

23.0

2012

Average min.

temperature,

8.0

10.8

12.0

13.0

12.0

11.8

11.3

10.0

9.6

10.0

Rainfall, mm

0.0

16.0

41.0

57.0

49.0

324.0

293.0

202.9

2.0

0.8

10.0

Thus, the variation of elevation within the city by favoring natural ventilation, the low height

of most buildings in city by offering little or no obstacle to flow of air, and the light and

heavy rainy seasons by washing air pollutants contribute to the dispersion deposition of

pollutants from vehicle emissions in the city.

The observed low level of CO during this study, in spite of all the factors indicating the

opposite, can only be explained by the meteorological and physiographical conditions of the

city which contribute towards the dispersion of CO.

Moreover, the removal and dispersion seems to be less efficient in case of PM

2.5

. This is also

reasonable, since PM

2.5

has the tendency to remain suspended in the air for longer times due

to their smaller size. Fine particulate matters have low removal tendency by precipitation and

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deposition owing to their size, and hence have long residence time in the air. This is one of

the main reasons for observed elevated concentration of PM

2.5

in the ambient air during the

study period.

According to the 2007 population census, the city has a population of 3,384,569. There is an

increased economic activity in the city now. More and more people move from one part of

the city to the other during working days for work, study, etc. The shortage of transportation

is evident. Many people can be seen queuing at bus and taxi stops at peak hours. This implies

more and more people are exposed to air pollutants (especially to PM

2.5

), the exposure time

depending on the time spent in queue and travel.

6.5 Trend Projection

The estimated mileage and corresponding annual fuel consumption in Addis Ababa for the

Ethiopian year 2003 (2010/11) are given in Table 6.8.

Table 6.8 Mileage and fuel consumption per vehicle category in Addis Ababa (2010/2011)

Vehicle category

No of

Vehicles

Annual

Mileage[km/yr]

passenger

cars

Petrol without catalyst

85,786

2,058,864,000

Petrol with 3-way catalyst

40,677

976,248,000

Diesel- OLD-without PM filter

3,401

81,624,000

Diesel- with PM filter

38,376

921,024,000

Light Duty

Trucks and

Buses

Light Duty-pre Euro

3,928

196,400,000

Light Duty-Euro I+II

24,130

1,206,500,000

Light Duty-Euro III+IV

8,466

423,300,000

Heavy

Duty

Trucks and

Buses

Heavy Duty-pre Euro

682

34,100,000

Heavy Duty-Euro I+II

5,160

258,000,000

Heavy Duty-Euro III+IV

1,669

83,450,000

Bus pre-Euro

524

26,200,000

Bus Euro I+II

2,503

125,150,000

Bus Euro III+IV

961

48,050,000

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This estimation was made assuming that annual mileage of passenger cars, trucks and buses

are 24,000, 50,000 and 50,000kms, respectively. In addition, 50% of the vehicles with ET

plates were assumed to circulate in Addis Ababa.

Following, the estimated amount of the different pollutants per vehicle category were

calculated using the emission factors of Nairobi [UNEP] and shown in Table 6.9.

Furthermore, it was attempted to estimate the GHG emission as expressed in Million ton of

e using the indicated conversion factors. Since these conversion factors were derived

based on transport conditions in developed countries, the actual emission values of these

pollutants are expected to be higher.

Table 6.9 Annual emissions of pollutants per vehicle category in Addis Ababa (2010/2011)

Vehicle category

Annual Emission [kg/yr]

VOC

SOx

PM10

Passenger

cars

Petrol without catalyst

109,120

18,217

5,188

103

Petrol with 3-way catalyst

17,572

761

1,142

Diesel- OLD-without PM filter

295

153

136

Diesel- with PM filter

3,325

820

147

Light Duty

Trucks and

Buses

Light Duty-pre Euro

709

369

328

Light Duty-Euro I+II

4,343

229

1,979

314

157

Light Duty-Euro III+IV 1,524 80 694 106 55

Heavy

Duty

Trucks and

Buses

Heavy Duty-pre Euro

293

523

Heavy Duty-Euro I+II

2,216

426

3,873

178

173

Heavy Duty-Euro III+IV

446

768

Bus pre-Euro

348

624

Bus Euro I+II

1,477

317

2,553

121

168

Bus Euro III+IV

278

481

Total

141,947

20,864

19,108

1,200

862

According to the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy of Ethiopia [FDRE, 2011], the

total GHG emission of the country from the transport sector in 2010 was estimated at 5

Million ton CO

e. With business-as-usual-scenario, the GHG emission from this sector is

expected to reach 40 Mt CO

e in 2030 which is an 800% increase. Similarly, the GHG

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emission in Addis Ababa can be expected to increase by the same percentage if not more.

Hence, the air quality in the city will deteriorate unless proper mitigation measures are

introduced in time.

6.6 Mitigation Measures and Conclusion

6.6.1 Recommendation on Mitigation Measures

Mitigation measures refer to programs or strategies designed to reduce vehicular emissions

for a particular region or area and are necessary to maintain or improve air quality. There is a

global interest towards developing mitigation measures, which can reduce vehicle emissions

either directly (e.g., by tightening emission standards, retrofitting, and introducing fuel

reformulations) or indirectly (e.g., by relieving traffic congestion, encouraging ride share, and

shifting private vehicle use to non-auto travel or public transport modes). In order to reduce

the impact of air pollution caused due to vehicular fleet, appropriate mitigation measures

need to be considered and applied. Regulatory guidelines are important to effectively control

and reduce vehicular emissions. Moreover emissions are generally regulated based on the

available standards that establish limit values for each type of pollutants released to the

ambient air.

a) Vehicle Emission Standards

Emission standards set limits on the amount of specific pollutants that vehicles can release

into the environment. The pollutants usually regulated include NOx, CO, HC and particulate

matter (PM). Unfortunately there are no universally accepted standards.

Most countries are adopting European Union Emission Standards as their national vehicle

emission standard. European Union vehicle emission standard started in early 1990s with

Euro I and reached Euro III at 2000. Then, it developed to Euro IV in 2005. While the current

standard is Euro V, it will be updated to Euro VI starting 2014. In order to control vehicular

emissions and reduce air pollutions in Ethiopia, it is necessary to draft and implement

emission standards as soon as possible. Since new vehicles imported from China and locally

assembled ones meet Euro III standards it is recommended to adopt and enforce Euro III on

newly registered vehicles emission in the country. European regulations introduce different

emission limits for diesel and petrol/gasoline vehicles. Emission standards for passenger cars

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are defined by vehicle driving distance, g/km. But for heavy duty vehicles (eg., trucks and

buses) standards are defined by engine energy output, g/kWh. Table 6.10 shows Euro III

vehicle emissions standard.

Emission standards for trucks and buses are defined by engine energy output, g/kWh. Table

6.12 shows Euro III standard for trucks and buses.

Table 6.10 Euro II Emission standards in the European Union for passenger cars and light

duty vehicles, g/km ) [Saint Gobain, 2011]

Vehicle Category

Engine type

Pollutants

THC

NOx

HC+NOx

Passenger cars

Diesel

0.64

0.5

0.56

0.05

Petrol

2.3

0.2

0.15

Light-commercial

vehicles ≤ 1305 kg

Diesel

0.64

0.50

0.56

0.05

Petrol

2.3

0.20

0.15

Light-commercial

vehicles 1305-1760 kg

Diesel

0.8

0.65

0.72

0.07

Petrol

4.17

0.25

0.18

Light-commercial

vehicles

>1760max3500

Diesel

0.95

0.78

0.86

0.10

Petrol

5.22

0.29

0.21

Table 6.11 Euro III emission standard for heavy duty diesel vehicles, g/kWh

[Wikipedia 2007],

Vehicle category

NOx

Trucks and buses

2.1

0.66

5.0

0.1

Heavy duty cargo vehicles

(2000kg and above)

2.1

0.66

5.0

0.1

The emission limit values specified in standards should not be exceeded in order to avoid air

pollution. Regulatory guidelines require that new vehicles should be fitted with catalytic

converters in order comply with the emission limit values defined by the standards.

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Moreover, fuel quality also plays a major role in controlling emissions and performance of

the converter. High sulfur content fuel can cause catalyst poisoning thereby reducing its

effectiveness. Catalytic converters are considered to be effective and viable measures to

achieve emissions reduction and improve ambient air quality. High sulfur has also a potential

to produce high emission of sulfur oxides. It is therefore necessary that refined low sulfur fuel

be used to control vehicle emissions.

b) Catalytic Converter

Catalytic converter is a vehicle emissions control device which converts toxic byproducts of

combustion to less toxic substances by catalyzed chemical reactions before they leave

vehicles exhaust system [Wikepdea, 2012]. This device reduces vehicular emissions by

chemical reactions performed on the surface of catalyst fitted in a housing through which

exhaust gas is passed.

The rising air pollution in Addis Ababa requires that vehicles should have calataytic

converter corresponding to the standard.

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7. TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS AND POLICY MEASURES

FOR FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES

7.1 Technology Options for Fuel Efficient and Clean Vehicles

7.1.1 Technology Options for Increasing Fuel economy

The gasoline engine, which was invented by Nicolas Augusto Otto, was operating with only

incremental improvement since 1876. To make these engines fuel efficient, new technologies

such as electronic ignition and electronic injection were introduced in 1970s and made the

carburetor and conventional ignition systems obsolete to cope with escalating fuel prices

caused by Arab-Israel war. All passenger cars with gasoline engines manufactured after

1990s have electronic injection system and ignition system. As a result, incremental change

in vehicle fuel economy was obtained. A shift from mechanical individual fuel injection

system to common rail electronic injection system was also observed in diesel engines.

Although some success was obtained in increasing fuel economy of the reciprocating internal

combustion engine, with the incorporation of more improvements the limit will be

approached. A better result in fuel economy was obtained by using new concepts such as

hybrid, electric and fuel cell engines.

The technological options and their limitations for increasing fuel economy to improve fuel

economy are discussed in this section and reported in literature [ Lipman, 2003],(IEA,2008].

a) Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV)

This is a vehicle that is powered by an on-board internal combustion engine which is

complemented by an electric motor that is driven by a battery, charged by electricity

recovered via regenerative braking. The braking energy that could otherwise be lost as heat is

recovered by driving an electric motor as a generator and stored by charging batteries. Any

excess power and braking power while a hybrid vehicle travels downhill, will be used for

driving a generator. The engine and the electric motor of hybrid vehicles can be in a series or

parallel configured as sown in Figure 7.1. In series configuration, the engine drives an

electric motor that delivers power to the wheels and in parallel configuration, both can

provide power directly to the wheels. Hybrid vehicles use an electric motor to start and drive

at low speed range. Hence, the engine can be stopped when the car is idling at traffic light.

The vehicle will restart by electric motors and then the gasoline engine will be engaged after

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takeoff. Moreover the electric motor will operate besides the internal combustion engine

when the vehicle has to climb uphill at peak load. As the internal combustion is not operated

during idling and low load, hybrid vehicles have better fuel economy in urban driving

condition. In addition, hybrid vehicles have a continuously variable transmission (CVT),

which makes the engine to operate at optimum efficiency at different vehicle speeds. Hybrid

vehicles can significantly reduce fuel consumption in city driving.

The new generation plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) have high capacity batteries that

can be charged by plugging them into an electrical outlet or charging station. PHEVs can

store enough electricity from the power grid to significantly reduce their petroleum

consumption under typical driving conditions. Hence, fossil fuel consumption is insignificant.

Figure 7.1 Drive system of Hybrid vehicles

b) Electric vehicle (EV)

A battery electric vehicle, shown in Figure 7.2, is driven by an electric motor powered by

electricity stored in onboard battery pack which is charged by plugging into the grid. An

electric vehicle has no engine. Electric vehicles plug into a wall socket or other source

of electricity to recharge the batteries. The vehicle can travel only 60-120 km between

recharge. Another disadvantage of electric cars is that they require long period to recharge the

battery. Using DC fast charging, the battery pack can be charged to 80% capacity in about 30

minutes. However the cost of such a charger was around USD16, 800 in May 2010 and the

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fast charger will also gradually degrade the battery capacity. 10-20 % loss is expected in a

10-year period. By increasing considerably the electrical energy that can be stored in the

battery and cutting the battery cost, the technology can be made reliable to compete with

conventional vehicles.

Figure 7.2 Battery pack of electric vehicle under the body

Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have high potential to significantly reduce fuel

consumption which can benefit to achieve fuel sustainability and reducing emissions of

pollutants and CO

. In Ethiopia where electricity is generated without direct CO

emission or

with small life cycle GHG emission, electric vehicles can contribute 100 % in direct fuel

savings and about 85 % life cycle CO

emission reduction per vehicle

Electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are developed by large number of vehicle

manufacturers in different countries. They are viewed as a breakthrough in reducing GHG

emission in the transport sector and strong dependence on fossil fuels.

There are several barriers that shall be addressed before mass-market penetration can be

achieved. These barriers include:

• Limited vehicle travel distance between recharge

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• High initial cost due to high costs of batteries

• Limited availability of recharging infrastructure.

It is hoped that some of the major barriers will be overcome up to 2020 and the electric

vehicle and plug-in hybrid vehicles will penetrate the market in significant number beyond

2020.

c) Fuel efficiency improvement of conventional passenger cars

It is believed that the efficiency of conventional vehicles will increase with the incremental

approach by making combustion more efficient, reducing engine and valve gear friction,

making the body compact and reducing the engine size. Improvements to gasoline engines

injection system using injection engine is estimated to attain 18% reduced fuel consumption.

Cylinder shutoff during low load conditions and improved valve timing and lift controls are

some of the measures to improve fuel efficiency of passenger cars. (SAE International,

2003a)

d) Proper maintenance of old vehicles and gradual replacement

The study on vehicle fleet classification in Ethiopia indicated that the majority of saloon and

compact passenger cars are older than 15 years and their fuel efficiencies are low. The fuel

economy of these vehicles is less than 8 km/liter for city driving. New vehicles with

equivalent power have fuel economy off 12-15 km/liter. Hence, enhancing the replacement of

the old vehicles, higher fuel economy can be achieved. In countries like Ethiopia, where the

vehicle engines are not tuned optimally, proper maintenance of vehicles by availing spare-

parts and tools is expected to improve fuel economy by about 10-20 % per vehicle older than

15 years. Some studies indicate that proper vehicle engine tuning can yield 10% decrease in

fuel consumption (IPCC, 1996). Replacement of bias (cross-ply) tires with radial tires can

reduce fuel consumption by about 10%. In Ethiopia, considerable portion of cars use bias

tires. Hence, regular tire inspection and maintenance as well as replacement of bias tires can

increase fuel economy.

e) Reducing traffic congestion by road improvement and use of mass transit

Traffic congestion will cause a car to idle and consume fuel while not travelling or travelling

at low speed. Even though the number of vehicles in Addis Ababa is about quarter a million,

traffic congestions happen in some part of the city. Construction of over and underpasses at

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some road junctions and implementation of the planned light rail and bus rapid transit can

contribute to improvement of fuel economy

f) Popularization of EC0-driving habit

Eco driving or driving habit with high acceleration and braking will result in higher fuel

economy. Hence, Eco driving has to be popularized by distributing flyer and launching

demonstrating video on TV.

Some of the rules of ECO driving are:

• Start slowly, avoiding rapid acceleration.

• Use the highest gear possible, and lower the engine speed.

• Maintain a constant speed during travelling

• Anticipate traffic conditions, and accelerate and decelerate smoothly – it is safer, uses

less fuel, and reduces brake wear.

• Drive at road posted speed limits.

• Avoid idling for any stop of longer period reduces fuel consumption and carbon

dioxide emissions.

• Check the tire pressure monthly with cold tires.

• Replace air filters regularly - saving up to 10% fuel consumption.

7.1.2 Emission Control Technologies

a) Catalytic Converters of Gasoline Engines

Two-way catalytic converter: It oxidizes carbon monoxide to carbon dioxide and

hydrocarbons unburned or partially burned during combustion, present in the exhaust gas, to

carbon dioxide and water over a platinum or palladium catalyst. The catalyst aids the

reaction of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons with the remaining oxygen in the exhaust gas.

Three-way catalytic converter: The reduction catalyst is the first stage of this catalytic

converter (Figure 7.3). It uses rhodium catalyst coating to reduce the NOx to nitrogen. In the

second stage carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons are oxidized to carbon dioxide and water in

the same way as in two way catalytic converter.

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Figure 7.3 Three way catalytic converter

Two way catalyst converters became obsolete since they do not reduce NOx emission. At

present all vehicles with petrol engines have three way catalytic converters. The price of such

type of catalytic converters starts with USD 200.

b) Catalytic Converters for Diesel Engines

Diesel Oxidation Catalyst:- It is the most commonly used catalytic converter is the

compression ignition engine. This catalyst converter oxidizes carbon monoxide and

hydrocarbons in the exhaust by excess oxygen in the exhaust.

Diesel particulate filter:- Catalytic converters cannot clean up soot or elemental carbon.

Hence particulates are cleaned up by diesel particulate filter. Particulate filter efficiency is

adversely affected by sulfur dioxide in the flue gas, which by oxidation in the catalytic

converter and combining with water, converts to sulfuric acid. Low sulfur fuel is a

prerequisite for efficient and sustainable performance of diesel particulate filters.

Hence there is a need to shift to gasoil with 50 ppm maximum sulfur. The price difference

between the Standard Diesel grade (500 ppm) and the low sulfur diesel grade (50 ppm) is said

to be about 1%.

7.1.3 Alternative Fuels

Bio-fuels have the potential to replace a significant part of gasoline and gasoil used in the

transport sector. According to Climate Resilient Development Plan of Ethiopia, biofuels

share of transport fuels shall increase to about 15% for gasoline engines and 5 % for diesel

engines by 2030. With expansion of sugar industries, Ethiopia will not only have sufficient

ethanol to blend with gasoline in 15-85 % proportion, but also can produce bioplastics such

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as polyethylene and pet from ethanol. Hence, the plan in CRDGA for ethanol-gasoline

blending can be easily achieved. With regard to biodiesel, numerous foreign companies with

local partners have acquired investment licenses. For example, Global Energy Ethiopia

(GEE) is planting a castor and jatropha to process 40,000 tons per annum. GEE leased

30,000 hectares of land in Wolaita Soddo in the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples

Regional State for this purpose. Therefore, it will be reasonable to assume the share of

biodiesel in reduction of gasoil will reach 10 % by 2050. Averaging the share of ethanol in

reducing gasoline and that of biodiesel in reducing gasoil and noting that the heating value of

ethanol is two third of that of gasoline, the replacement of fossil fuels with bio-fuels will

reach 10 % by 2050.

7.2

Policy Measures for Promoting Cleaner and Efficient Vehicles

Some of the policy measures in this section are discussed in the literatures {GEFI,2010]

7.2.1 Enhancing Vehicle Efficiency Improvement

a) Mandatory requirement of fuel efficiency and emission certificate for vehicles to be

imported or assembled in the country.

In addition to this all vehicles for sale shall post fuel economy value on display.

b) Banning of import of old second hand vehicles

Although the initial price of old second hand vehicles is low, the operating costs are high due

to excessive fuel consumption caused by the deterioration of the engine due to aging and hih

frequency of maintenance. New vehicles and relatively newer second hand vehicles require

only servicing that is replacement of air filter, fuel filter, engine oil and oil filter often every

5000 km. Second hand vehicles might require the following types of maintenance as soon as

bought.

• Front brakes have to be replaced every 40,000 km and rear every 70,000 km

• Require replacement shock absorbers, batteries and tires

• Vehicles that travelled 200,000 km require engine overhaul and other accessories.

• If the body is corroded, the corroded part has to be removed and welded and the it

must be repainted.

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Hence, old second hand vehicles have high operating costs. In addition when a vehicle has to

be maintained, the user needs to rent another car or use taxi (especially for business purpose).

This cost is called downtime costs which increase as the vehicle becomes older.

Experience from other African that legislated policy on second hand-vehicles indicate that

the maximum age limited to maximum of ten years as follows.

 Algeria - -3 years.

 South Africa – new only

 Sudan - new (except migrants)

 Kenya - 8 years

 Lesotho - 8 years

 Gabon - 5 years

 Mozambique cars – 5 Vans -9

 Niger - 5 years

From the economic analysis conducted in this study in next chapter and lessons learnt from

bench marked countries, it is recommended to limit the age of second hand vehicles to be

imported to Ethiopia 8-10 years.

Banning import of vehicles older than 8-10 years, will contribute to increase fuel economy

due to newer vehicles with improved technology and higher efficiency.

c) Introduction of hybrid and electric vehicle

Duty free import for pilot introduction of electric and hybrid electric vehicles is essential as a

transfer program. The pilot technology transfer program can be carried as follows;

• 200 hybrid vehicles (duty free) in public enterprise or as hotel taxi fleet

• 50 electric vehicles such as service vehicles in premises of Ethiopian airlines

In addition, legislation for total exemption of excise tax of hybrid vehicles and plug-in

electric vehicles is necessary to enhance dissemination of these fuel efficient vehicles. It is

hoped that after 2020, these vehicles will penetrate the market and become considerable after

2030.

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d) Improvement of maintenance infrastructure of vehicles and increasing awareness

In order to improve condition of vehicles, it is necessary to avail more spare parts and tools

by reducing import duty tax. It also necessary to control vehicle condition during annual

inspection, initiate certification of vehicle maintenance workshops and increase awareness on

fuel economy. Drivers shall also be aware of not to accelerate and brake frequently too, select

less congested route and time.

7.2.2 Use of cleaner fuels

Although, the sulfur content of the imported diesel fuel in Ethiopia has recently decreased

appreciably to 500 ppm and below, the high sulfur content of the fuel is still an obstacle for

effectiveness of particulate matter removal from diesel engine exhausts.

With regard to sustainable use of biofuel, major achievement was scored in using gasoline

ethanol blend. However, commercial production of biodiesel has not commenced as

expected. The investors did not go beyond pilot plantation.

Hence, the following courses of actions are recommended to promote cleaner fuels

• Amending the Ethiopian standard for limiting sulfur to 50 ppm maximum in diesel

fuel by 2015 so that modern vehicles with diesel engines with lower particulate

emissions can effectively use particulate filter for cleaning exhaust.

• Preparation of incentive package to promote biodiesel production such as VAT

exemption

• In addition, improvement of EPE and Ethiopian Standard laboratory infrastructure are

recommended.

Although some vehicles in Ethiopia are fitted with catalytic converters, most of the

catalytic converters are ineffective due to use of unleaded gasoline in earlier years (old

vehicles), high sulfur content in the fuel and no replacement of damaged units.

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Figure 7.4 Availability and enforcement of low sulfur diesel in Middle East

7.2.3 Emission Control

The high level of CO and PM emission in traffic congestion areas of Addis Ababa, although

the vehicle stock is very low even compared to African cities such as Nairobi, indicates that

the necessity of functional and effective catalytic converters for every vehicle.

As the sulfur content of the fuel is 500 ppm at present, diesel particulate filter will not

become fully effective unless stringent vehicle emission standards such as Euro IV and above

are implemented. However, implementation of Euro III with maximum 150 ppm sulfur

content in the fuel will considerably reduce particulate matter emission. The transition to

Euro IV emission standard has to be delayed as some of the vehicles imported from china

will be able to conform to it only in 2013 and until the maximum sulfur content in the fuel is

limited to 50 ppm. It is recommended that Ethiopia shall adopt Euro III emission standard in

2015 and move to Euro IV in 2017. The availability of low sulfur diesel is not a problem as

most of the Gulf States are going for low sulfur diesel as shown in Figure 7.4

The emission standard shall incorporate the following

• All vehicles to be imported or assembled in the country after January, 2015 except

three wheel vehicles shall have catalytic converters that confirm at least to Euro III

emission standard and after January 2017 to Euro IV emission standard.

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• All three wheels vehicle to be imported after January 1st, 2015 shall have four stroke

engines and a catalytic converter.

• All vehicles imported after 2015, without functional catalytic converters shall be

penalized upon annual inspection after 2015.

The above policy measures which have to be formulated in legislation are given as draft

legislation given in Appendix 1.

7.3 Targets for Fuel Economy Improvement and Average Fuel Economy

In order to determine the targets for fuel economy improvement, the light duty vehicles

population in Ethiopia was projected with the assumption that the present growth rate will

prevail and the high taxes on light duty vehicles, high fuel prices and improvement in public

transport with introduction of light transit train in Addis Abba will continue to encourage use

of public transportation and discourage owning of personal cars. The projection of light duty

vehicles is shown in Figure 7.5. If the vehicle population increases at faster rate, it means

vehicles with newer technology with lower fuel consumption will be more in proportion and

higher improvement in fuel economy can be achieved. The fuel economy for the baseline

year or 2005 is 11.5 km/liter for new vehicles and 9 km/liter for the fleet as a whole.

Figure 7.5 Forecasted LD vehicle at present actual growth rate.

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LD Vehicle QTY

Year

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7.3.1 Target for 2020

It is assumed that 60 % of the vehicles in 2020, which will be registered between 2010 and

2020, will have an average fuel economy of 13 km/liter in city driving due to improved

polices and technology. The old vehicles, which were registered before 2010, are assumed to

have 9 km/liter fuel economy and account to 40 % of the fleet. The target fuel economy for

new vehicles and the vehicle stock is given in Figure 7.1.

Table 7.1 Fuel Economy Target for 2020

Improvement measure

Fossil Fuel

Economy Improvement

Preventive maintenance of vehicle and awareness

5 %

Vehicles fleet efficiency improvement

17.5 %

Bio-fuels

2.5%

Total

25%

Average fuel economy target of new vehicles

6.25 L/100 km

(16 km/L)

Average fuel economy target of the fleet

9.05 L/100 km

(11.05 km/L)

7.3.2 Target for 2030

Table 7.2 Fuel Economy Target for 2030

Improvement Measure

Fossil Fuel Economy

Improvement

Preventive maintenance of vehicle and awareness

5 %

Vehicles fleet efficiency improvement

25 %

3 Hybrid vehicles 2.5%

4 Bio-fuels 7.5%

Total 40%

Average fuel Economy target of new vehicles

5 L/100 km

(20 km/L)

Average fuel economy target of the fleet

7.6 L/100 km

(13.05 km/L)

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In this case, it is assumed that 50 % of the vehicles in 2030, which will be registered between

2020 and 2030, will have average fuel economy of 17 km/liter in city driving due to

improved polices and technology. Vehicles registered between 2010 and 2020 will account

30 % of the fleet and will have fuel economy of 12 km/liter. The old vehicles, which were

registered before 2010, are assumed to have 9 km/liter fuel economy and account to 20 % of

the fleet. The targets to be met are shown in table 7.2.

7.3.2 Target for 2050

Here it is assumed that 45 % of the vehicles registered before 2030 will have fuel economy

of 12.5 km/liter and 45 % of vehicles are registered after 2030 with average fuel economy 20

km/liter. In addition 12 % vehicles ( 9% hybrid vehicles and 3 % electric vehicles) will be

electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles saving 7 % of fuel consumed. Table 7.3 shows the

obtained targets

Table 7.3 Fuel economy target for 2050

Efficiency Improvement

Fossil Fuel

Economy Improvement

Vehicles fleet efficiency improvement

30 %

Hybrid and electric vehicles

Bio-fuels

7.5%

Total

44.5 %

Average fuel economy target of the fleet

6.05 L/ 100 km

(16.6 km/L)

The comparison of projected fuel economy of new vehicles of Ethiopia with the European

Union and China shows that Ethiopia will still lag behind the world average by 2030 as

shown in Figure 7.5. However compared to the benchmark year 2005, it comes near to

achieving targets set by GFEI by partially substituting petroleum by bio-fuel in addition fuel

economy improvement obtained due to incremental technology improvement of conventional

vehicles and introduction of new technologies such as hybrid and electric vehicles starting

2020.

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Figure 7.5 Target average fuel economy of new vehicles of Ethiopia compared to

other countries

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8. COST BENFIT ANALYSIS OF POLICY MEASURES

8.1 Scope of the Life Cycle Cost Analyses

The objective of the analyses is to compare available vehicle technologies with respect to

possibility of private end users making economically rational decision toward cleaner technology

when purchasing a new car. Therefore, the life cycle cost methodology has been chosen to

determine and quantify the cost of each vehicle technology. The first goal is to develop a life

cycle cost model and to calculate the private end users costs associated with owning and

operating conventional and cleaner vehicles.

The life cycle cost model is based on forecasts of various vehicle operating costs. The values of

these operating costs are estimated based on the most probable forecasts, which cover a long

period of time. The values of these variables for the most probable outcome scenario may be

influenced by many factors and the actual values may differ considerably from the forecast

values depending on future events. It is therefore necessary to consider the sensitivity of the life

cycle cost model to potential changes in key variables. Accordingly, life cycle cost analyses

under different scenarios is also carried out.

Finally, the tax structure of vehicles in Ethiopia is analyzed and the impact of a new

fiscal system based on the environmental performance of vehicles on making cleaner

technologies economically competitive with conventional vehicles is analyzed.

8.2 Assumptions and Specifications

Within the life cycle cost analysis, several parameters have to be defined. In this section, the

main assumptions are briefly explained.

8.2.1 Definition of Functional Unit

A functional unit is a quantified description of the performance of product systems, for use as a

reference unit. It allows comparing two or several product systems on the basis of a

common provided service. Within this study, the functional unit will be defined in such a way

that all the life cycle phases of vehicles will be taken into account in the analysis.

Accordingly it has been assumed that the vehicle lifetime is 10 years, with an annual driving

range of 25.000 km or 250,000 km lifetime travel.

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8.2.2 Financial Parameters

The financial parameters that will be taken into account can be divided into the vehicle initial

financial costs and the operating costs related to the use of the car. Vehicle initial costs

comprise the initial investment cost, freight and taxes. Operating costs are the future expenses

related to the use of the car. Operating costs can be divided into fuel operating costs and the

non fuel operating costs ( lubricant, tyre , battery, repair and maintenance, vehicle registration

and insurance).

In order to accurately combine the initial expenses with the future costs, the present value of all

expenses must be determined. Vehicle initial costs occur at the same time, so there is no need to

calculate their present value. Their present value is equal to their actual cost. The operating costs

are in contrast time dependent costs and their present value has to be calculated. In other words

annual operating costs during the life of the vehicle will be adjusted to reflect the time value of

money. Discounting is a technique or a process by which one can reduce future costs to their

present worth or present value.

Operating costs are discounted by a factor that reflects the rate at which today’s value of a

monetary unit decreases with the passage of every time unit. The factor used to discount

operating costs is called the discount rate and is expressed as a percentage.

For the purpose of this study a discount rate of 10% is used and to determine the present value of

future operating costs, the following formula is used

Where:

PV = Present Value

= Amount of recurring cost

I = Real Discount Rate

T = Time (expressed as number of years)

8.2.3 Technical Specification of Vehicles

The following vehicle technologies were included in the life cycle cost analysis.

a) Toyota Yaris conventional specification

Prime mover Petrol engine

Engine power 74 kW

Engine Disp. volume 1500 c.c.

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No of cylinders 4

Transmission 4 speed automatic or 5 manual

Average fuel consumption 13.5 km/l

emissions 79 g/km

Figure 8.1 Toyota Yaris

b) Toyota Yaris Hybrid specifications.

Prime mover petrol engine and battery powering the electrical motor

Engine power 55 kW

Engine Disp. volume 1500 c.c.

No of cylinders 4

Transmission 4 speed automatic

Engine power 55 kW

Total maximum power 74 kW

Average fuel consumption 28.5 l/ km

emissions of only 79 g/km,

c) Nissan Leaf Electric Vehicle

Prime mover Electric motor

Power 80 kW

Torque 280 N·m

Drive: Front-mounted synchronous electric motor driving the wheels,

Battery: 24 kilowatt-hours (86 MJ) lithium ion battery pack

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Battery weight 300 kilograms

Cost of battery: US$18,000

Energy consumption: 765 kJ/km (34 kWh/100 miles)

Life span of battery: 10 years or minimum160,000 km

Interval between charges: 117 km

Cost USD 27,000

Figure 8.2 Nissan Leafi

8.2.4 Current Tax Regime for Importing Vehicles

In Ethiopia imported vehicles are liable to five different taxes. These taxes are assigned

priority levels and are calculated in a sequential order. These taxes, in their sequential order,

are Customs Duty, Excise Tax, VAT, Surtax and Withholding Tax. The rates applied

especially for Excise Tax differ from vehicle to vehicle based on the horse power of the

vehicle. For the type of vehicles under consideration the rates are as followed;

•

Duty (35% of CIF)

•

Excise (50 % of CIF + Duty)

•

Sur Tax (10% of CIF + excise +duty)

•

VAT (15% of CIF + excise + duty + sur tax)

•

With hold (3% of CIF)

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8.3 Results of Life Cycle Cost Analyses

8.3.1 Base Case

Under the base case scenario the current tax regime is considered. The current price of fuel is

assumed to increase by 5% annually. The cost of electrical energy is assumed to be Birr 0.65

per kwh. Total mileage traveled per vehicle per year is considered to be 24,000 km. The

battery for electric vehicles is assumed to be replaced every 166,000 km.

Based on the above assumptions under the base case scenario the life cycle cost of

conventional, hybrid and electric vehicles is Birr 745,539, Birr 826,643 and Birr 1,243,680,

respectively (see Figure 8.3 and for details see Appendix.)

Figure 8.3 Life cycle cost of the vehicles with the existing tax regime in Birr

However, when the mileage traveled per vehicle per year is considered to be 36,000 km/year

a different picture immerges where new conventional vehicles followed by five year old

conventional second hand vehicles and hybrid vehicles will become the least expensive (see

Table 8.1). As compared to a mileage of 24,000 km/year when a 36,000 km/year mileage is

considered the life cycle cost for conventional second hand 10 year and 5 year old vehicles

has increased by 26% and 20% respectively while for hybrid and electric vehicles the

increase is only by 8% and 1% respectively.

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Conventional Hybrid Electric

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Table 8.1: Life cycle cost of the vehicles for the existing tax regime

Assuming 36,000 km/year

mileage

Type of vehicles LCC in Birr

Conventional (new)

851,209

Hybrid

891,528

Electric

1,255,014

Moreover, assuming that the cost of fuel will increase by 10% annually and the cost of

energy will increase to 1.30 per kwh the total life cycle cost (assuming 24,000 km mileage)

will become Birr 792,144 Birr 855,444 and Birr 1,266,347 for conventional, hybrid and

electric vehicles respectively ( see Table 8.2.)

Table 8.2: Life cycle cost of the vehicles for 24,000 km/y mileage and 10 % fuel inflation

and cost of electricity increase 1.3 Birr/kWh

Type of vehicles

( in Birr)

Conventional (new)

792,444

Hybrid

855,444

Electric

1,266,347

8.3.2 With Tax incentive for cleaner vehicles

In this scenario it is assumed that for hybrid and electric vehicles excise and surtax will be

exempted. Accordingly, other assumptions being similar to base case scenario the life cycle

cost of conventional, hybrid and electric vehicles is Birr 745,539, Birr 586,887 and Birr

884,028 (see Figure 8.4.)

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Figure 8.4 Life cycle cost of vehicles with excise and sur tax exemption

8.3.3 Second Hand Vehicles

To compare the live cycle cost of new conventional with imported second hand vehicles,

Toyota corolla 1992, Toyota corolla 2007 model and Toyota Corolla 2002 models have been

considered. The prices of the second hand vehicles were collected from second hand car

dealers and for the new model it was calculated from CIF prices using the cost build up due

to transportation and various taxes. The fuel consumption per 100 km is taken 6, 7, 8.5 and

10 for new, 5 years old, 10 years old and 11 years old vehicles respectively, considering

improvements in technology and efficiency reduction due to depreciation. It was assumed

that each vehicle will change oil every 5000 km. In addition fixed time replacement of

batteries and tires were considered and the cost was apportioned to mileage. For annual

maintenance cost, Birr 3000 was estimated for new vehicle and to increase by 10 % with

age. The 20 year old vehicle certainly will require engine over hauls and replacement of

engine and vehicle accessories. Hence, the average annual maintenance cost was relatively

high.

The analysis with existing fuel price and annual mileage of 24,000 is given in table 8.3 and

Figure 8.5. The results show that the 10 year old vehicle is more economical for the user. In

strict sense, 8 years old would have the least life cycle cost. If the annual mileage increases

to 36,000 km, then a vehicle upto five year old will be economical to the user.

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Conventional Hybrid Electric

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Table 8.3: Life cycle cost of vehicles of different ages under existing fuel price and 5%

annual fuel inflation under consideration assuming annual mileage of 24,000 km

Age of Vehicle LCC in Birr

743,362

707,132

722,589

New

743,362

Figure 8.5 Comparison of Life cycle cost of different ages under existing fuel price and 5%

annual fuel inflation.

Table 8.4: Life cycle cost of vehicles of different ages under existing fuel price and 5%

annual fuel inflation under consideration assuming annual mileage of 36,000 km

Age of Vehicle LCC in Birr

1,083,697

907,536

892,464

New

890,5849

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

20 10 5 New

LCC in Birr

Vehicle Age

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The above analysis does not include down time cost of an old vehicle during maintenance

which hast to replaced by rented vehicles temporarily. Hence, it is conclude 8- 10 year old

vehicles are economical for personal cars with less annual mileage and 0-5 year old vehicles

are economical for business application with increased annual mileage.

8.3.4 Impact off Tax Incentives for Cleaner Vehicles inn Government Revenue

Assuming that in 2030 the total light duty vehicle population of the country will become

600,000 and the share of hybrid and electric vehicles from the total will be 3% or 18,000

vehicles and considering the average excise and sur tax the government collects from the

hybrid and electric vehicles under consideration (Birr 390,918) the total amount of tax

income loss for the government for introducing tax exemption for cleaner vehicles by 2030 is

estimated at Birr 7.021 billion or Birr 413.9 million annually.

8.3.5 Conclusion

Under the current tax system, the life cycle costs is significantly lower for conventional

vehicles compared to other vehicle technologies. The main reason for this advantage is the

high initial price for both hybrid and electric vehicles and the ensuing high tax and for

electric vehicles also the high battery replacement costs. However, with excise and sur tax

exemption for hybrid electric vehicles their life cycle cost will be lower than the

conventional vehicles. Hence, private end users cannot make rational decision, based on

economical aspect, toward cleaner technology when purchasing a new vehicle under the

current tax regime for vehicles. Although the life cycle cost of electric vehicles is high,

breakthrough through in battery technology will bring drastic decrease in initial cost in the

near future. Hence, the technology transfer activity has to begin for both vehicles.

8.4 Benefits and costs associated with sulfur reduction in fuel

Experience of countries like USA, China, Mexico, Europe and studies conducted on African

refineries showed that the average consumer cost of reducing sulfur levels to 15 ppm is from

3.66 to 7 USD cents per liter (Sandy Thind, 2000, Abidjan, 2009). Hence, reduction of sulfur

content of a fuel from 5000 to 150 ppm in Ethiopia, for instance, will not add more than 5

USD cents per liter. Accordingly, if the petroleum enterprise of Ethiopia reduces the sulfur

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content of the Diesel from 5000 to 150 ppm and even down to 50 ppm, the incremental cost

is expected to be around 5 USD cents per litter cost on the current market price of the fuel.

Ethiopia has imported 1,232,894 ton (1,450,463,529.42 liter) of diesel fuel in 2012 (Ethiopian

PE, 2012). The cost of importing of diesel fuel would have increased form around USD

1,289,300,915.037 to USD 1,360, 535,728.588, if low sulfur fuel were imported in the same

year to Ethiopia. Definitely, as most countries will go for low sulfur diesel option in the

future, the incremental cost will lower due to economy of scale.

Lowering the sulfur content of diesel fuel has a lot of economic benefits though the price

seems to be high at first. Benefits will overtake costs in years as it has been witnessed by

tangible researches conducted in US, Europe, China and Mexico as shown in Figure 8.6. In

summarizing the complex costs and benefits of low sulfur diesel, it was estimated that the

annual monetized net benefits would be $66.2 billion due to the thousands of avoided

hospital admissions, asthma emergencies, lost work days, chronic pulmonary ailments, other

health impacts, reduced agricultural crop and commercial forest damage (U.S. EPA, 2007).

The same patterns were seen in Mexico, Europe and other countries (ICCT, 2009).

Source: Costs and Benefits of Reduced Sulfur Fuels in China,( ICCT, 2006).

Figure 8.6 Projected incremental cost and benefits of low sulfur fuel in China

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Using low-sulfur diesel offers economic benefits beyond the obvious public health and

environmental improvements. Low-sulfur diesel can reduce maintenance costs over the life of

a vehicle because it reduces engine corrosion and makes engine lubricating oil less prone to

acidification and this leads to longer maintenance intervals and lower maintenance costs.

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9. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The study compiled and used data of registered vehicles and annual inspected vehicles in

Ethiopia, scanned parameters of imported gasoline and gasoil, reviewed legislation and

regulation of relevant to vehicle import registration, inspection and vehicle emission,

conducted measurement of ambient air quality at 12 selected sites in Addis Ababa, reviewed

new vehicle technologies and conduct cost benefit analysis of measures that require

introduction of new technologies. Finally policy recommendations to promote efficient and

cleaner vehicles and draft legislation on vehicle emission standard and related were prepared.

Major finding of the study can be concluded as follow.

• Gasoline engine vehicles in Ethiopia are aging consuming more fuel and with

increased emissions

• The relatively low average fuel economy indicates importation of old second hand

vehicles has to be stopped and minimum fuel economy standard for different class of

vehicles has to beset

• The high-level of particulate matter emission indicates that vehicle emission standard

implementation is crucial.

• Implementation of vehicle emission standard will require radical reduction of sulfur

content of the fuel. Hence, Ethiopian fuel standard has to be revised.

• New vehicle technologies that promote fuel efficiency and emissions reduction has to

be introduced into the country at first and disseminated. Toward this, incentives

packages have to be prepared and maintenance support has to be arranged.

In addition to this, the following recommendations are made to facilitate the implementation

of the study:

• As the particulate matter emission is alarming, detailed ambient air quality study has

to be conducted at least for a year for more sites in Addis Ababa and other cities with

high traffic.

• Task forces shall be formed from the stakeholder including from Ministry of

Transportation to implement the different aspects of the study.

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• ECRA shall revise its newly registered vehicle database so that it can facilitate

tracking of vehicle fuel efficiency similar to the cleaned vehicle database in this study

• Computerized vehicle inspection data recording has to be improved to facilitate

classification of vehicle stock and implemented in regions where it is absent.

• The laboratory infrastructure of EPE has to be strengthened.

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Bacha, John et al. (2007), ’Diesel Fuels Technical Review’, Cheveron Corporation, USA.

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impacts.pdf, retrieved August 27, 2012.

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International council on clean Transportation (icct, 2009). Cost benefits of lower sulfur fuels in

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A1-1

APPENDIX 1: DRAFT REGULATION

Federal Negarit Gazeta

Of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

______________________________________________________________________________

Council of Ministers (draft) Regulations No. /2012

Council of Ministers Regulations to Provide Vehicular Emission Standard & Incentive for Fuel

Efficient & Environmental Friendly Vehicles

These Regulations are issued by the Council of Ministers pursuant to Article 5 of Proclamation

No. 691/2010 of the Definition of Powers & Duties of the Executive Organs of the Federal

Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, and Article 20 of the Environmental Pollution Control

Proclamation No. 300/2002, and Article ? of the Environmental Pollution Control (Amendment)

Proclamation No. / .

Article 1: Short Title

These Regulations may be cited as “Regulations to Provide Vehicular Emission Standard &

Incentive for Fuel Efficient & Environmental Friendly Vehicles Council of Ministers

Regulations No. /2012”

Article 2: Definitions

Unless the context requires otherwise, in these Regulations:

(1) “Incentive” means the exemption from any applicable import related tax (es) on imported

or assembled vehicles, wholly or partly.

(2) “Person” means any natural person or juridical entity which has been bestowed with legal

existence, rights & obligations by law.

(3) “Pollution” shall have the meaning as provided under Article 2(12) of the Environmental

Pollution Control Proclamation No. 300/2002.

(4) “Tax Payer” means a person who imports taxable vehicles to Ethiopia or purchases

assembled vehicles in Ethiopia.

(5) “Vehicle” means any type of wheeled motor vehicle except defense & three wheel

vehicles, for use on roads classified as carriage.

(6) “Vehicular Emission” means pollutants emitted from vehicles exhaust.

Article 3: Scope of Application

These Regulations shall:

A1-2

(1) apply within the territory of Federal Democratic Republic of EthiopiaCity of Addis

Ababa;

(2) apply on new or second hand vehicles imported to Ethiopia on or after the effective date

of these Regulations;

(3) apply on new vehicles assembled in Ethiopia on or after the effective date of these

Regulations;

(4) apply on any tax payer or person by virtue of being a purchaser of assembled vehicle in

Ethiopia or importer of vehicle to Ethiopia;

(5) not apply on defense vehicles & three wheel vehicles including on those vehicles

exempted under Article 5 & Article 26 of Proclamation No. 681/2010.

Article 4: Vehicular Emission Standard

(1) The Vehicular Emission Standard is hereby provided in the Schedule which forms an

integral part of these Regulations.

(2) All vehicles, with four or more wheels, to be imported to Ethiopia or assembled in

Ethiopia on or after effective date of these Regulations shall have catalytic converter that

conform to the Vehicular Emission Standard provided hereof.

(3) All vehicles to be imported to Ethiopia or assembled in Ethiopia after January 1 2015

shall have catalytic converter that confirm to Euro III emission standard.

(4) Euro IV vehicular emission standard shall be updated with Euro IV standard as of

September 2017.

(5) Conformance to the Vehicular Emission Standard may not be mandatory to all three

wheel vehicles. However, they shall have four stroke petrol engines with catalytic

converters.

Article 5: Importation of New Vehicles

(1) No tax payer or person is allowed to import new or second hand vehicles in to Ethiopia

which shall not comply with the Vehicular Emission Standard as provided in these

Regulations.

(2) No tax payer or person shall be allowed to import in to Ethiopia second hand vehicle

older than 5 years of its make.

(3) No person is allowed to assemble vehicles in Ethiopia which shall not conform to the

Vehicular Emission Standard provided hereof.

Article 6: Incentives

(1) A tax payer or person who imports new or second hand vehicle to Ethiopia & such

vehicle which conforms to the Vehicular Emission Standard, shall be granted import tax

related incentive(s) as provided in the Incentive Schedule which forms an integral part of

these Regulations.

(2) A tax payer or person, who purchases assembled vehicle in Ethiopia & such vehicle

which conform to the Vehicular Emission Standard, shall be granted import tax related

A1-3

incentive(s) as provided in the Schedule which forms an integral part of these

Regulations.

Article 7: Implementation

All relevant federal & the Addis Ababa City Government institutions shall undertake their

respective obligations as originate from the implementation of these Regulations, based on their

respective legal framework & power.

Article 8: Power to Issue Directives

The Transport Authority may issue directives for the better implementation of these Regulations.

Article 9: Duty to Cooperate

Any person shall have the obligation to cooperate for the implementation of these Regulations.

Article 10: Inapplicable Laws

Any regulations or directives or practice which is inconsistent with these Regulations shall not be

applicable for matters provided hereof.

Article 11: Effective Date

These Regulations shall come in to force on January 1, 2015.

Done at Addis Ababa, this day of , 2013

…

Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Schedule 1:

Vehicular Emission Standard for Passenger Vehicles, g/km

Vehicle Category

Engine type

Pollutants

THC

NOx

HC+NOx

Passenger cars

Diesel

0.64

0.5

0.56

0.05

Petrol

2.3

0.2

0.15

Light-commercial

vehicles ≤ 1305 kg

Diesel

0.64

0.50

0.56

0.05

Petrol

2.3

0.20

0.15

Light-commercial

vehicles 1305-1760 kg

Diesel

0.8

0.65

0.72

0.07

Petrol

4.17

0.25

0.18

Light-commercial

vehicles >1760max3500

Diesel

0.95

0.78

0.86

0.10

Petrol

5.22

0.29

0.21

A1-4

Schedule 2:

Vehicles Emission Standard for Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles, g/kWh

Vehicle category

NOx

Trucks and buses

2.1

0.66

5.0

0.1

Large good vehicles (2000kg and above)

2.1

0.66

5.0

0.1

Schedule 3:

Incentives for Fuel Efficient Vehicles to be imported to or assembled in Ethiopia

The following exemptions have been granted if not already provided by other applicable import

related tax laws.

Category of Vehicles

VAT

Excise Tax

Import Sur Tax

Hybrid vehicles

15 %

Exempted

II.

Electric vehicles

15 %

Exempted

A2‐1



APPENDIX 2: LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSES (BASE CASE)



CONVENTIONAL VEHICLE



a) Capital Cost



Purchase price Cost

1.1

in USD 12,007

1.2

in Birr 216,126

Cost of freight, insurance and port handling

2.1

in USD 2,500

2.2

in Bir

45,000

Total CIF cost

in USD 14,507

in Birr 261,126

Tax ( in Birr)

3.1 Duty (35% of CIF) 91,394

3.2 Excise (50% of CIF + Duty) 176,260

3.3 Sur Tax (10% of CIF + excise +duty) 52,878

3.4 VAT (15% of CIF + excise + duty + sur tax) 87,249

Total tax in Birr 407,781

Total capital cost ( Birr) 668,907

4 Salvage value (Birr) 222,969

Grand total capital cost (Birr) 445,938



A2‐2



b) Operating cost



Sr.

No Description Year/ cost in Birr

1 Fuel

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1.1 Mileage travelled per year 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

1.2 Fuel consumption ( per 100 km) 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7

1.3

Amount of fuel required

(lit/annum) 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368 1,368

1.4 Unit Cost of fuel ( per lit) 18.88 19.82 20.82 21.86 22.95 24.10 25.30 26.57 27.89 29.29

Annual Cost of fuel (in Birr) 25,828 27,119 28,475 29,899 31,394 32,964 34,612 36,342 38,159 40,067

2 Lubricant

2.1 Mileage travelled per year 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

2.2

Number of Lubricant change

( every 5000 km) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg) 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29

2.4

Average Unit cost of lubricant

( per kg) 100 105 110 116 122 128 134 141 148 155

Annual Cost of Lubricant

(in Birr) 2,880 3,024 3,175 3,334 3,501 3,676 3,859 4,052 4,255 4,468

Tyre and battery

(every 24,000 km) 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

Maintenance and Repair

Costs 3,000 3,600 4,320 5,184 6,221 7,465 8,958 10,750 12,899 15,479

Vehicle registration

and insurance cost 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Total operating cost 34,508 36,543 38,770 41,217 43,915 46,904 50,229 53,944 58,114 62,815



A2‐3



c) Life Cycle Cost



Year

Actual cost

(in Birr)

Discounting

Factor (10%)

Discounted

cost

(in Birr)

Capital cost 445,938 1 445,938

1 34,508

34,508

2 36,543

0.909

33,218

3 38,770

0.826

32,024

4 41,217

0.751

30,954

5 43,915

0.683

29,994

6 46,904

0.621

29,128

7 50,229

0.564

28,329

8 53,944

0.513

27,673

9 58,114

0.467

27,139

10 62,815

0.424

26,633

Total Life Cycle Cost ( in Birr) 745,539



A2‐4



HYBRID VEHICLE

a) Capital Cost

1.1

Purchase price Cost

1.1.1

in USD 17,299

1.1.2

in Birr 311,382

Cost of freight, insurance and

port handling

2.1

in USD 2,500

2.1

in Birr 45,000

Total CIF cost

3.1

in USD 19,799

3.2

in Birr 356,382

Tax ( in Birr)

4.1 Duty (35% of CIF) 124,734

4.2 Excise (50% of CIF + Duty) 240,558

4.3 Sur Tax (10% of CIF + excise +duty) 72,167

4.4 VAT (15% of CIF + excise + duty + sur tax) 119,076

Total tax 556,535

5 Total capital cost ( Birr) 912,917

6 Salvage value (Birr) 304,306

Grand total capital cost (Birr) 608,611

A2‐5



b) Operating cost

Sr.

No Description Year/ cost in Birr

1 Fuel

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1.1 Mileage travelled per year 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

1.2

Fuel consumption

( per 100 km) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

1.3

Amount of fuel required

(lit/annum) 840 840 840 840 840 840 840 840 840 840

1.4 Unit Cost of fuel ( per lit) 18.88 19.82 20.82 21.86 22.95 24.10 25.30 26.57 27.89 29.29

Annual Cost of fuel (in Birr) 15,859 16,652 17,485 18,359 19,277 20,241 21,253 22,315 23,431 24,603

2 Lubricant

2.1 Mileage travelled per year 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

2.2

Number of Lubricant change (

every 5000 km) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg) 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29

2.4

Average Unit cost of lubricant (

per kg) 100 105 110 116 122 128 134 141 148 155

Annual Cost of Lubricant (in

Birr) 2,880 3,024 3,175 3,334 3,501 3,676 3,859 4,052 4,255 4,468

Tyre and battery (every

24,000 km) 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800

4 Maintenance and Repair Costs 3,000 3,600 4,320 5,184 6,221 7,465 8,958 10,750 12,899 15,479

Vehicle registration and

insurance cost 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Total operating cost 24,539 26,076 27,780 29,677 31,798 34,181 36,870 39,917 43,386 47,350

A2‐6



c) Life Cycle Cost 

Year

Actual

cost

Discounting

Factor

(10%)

Discounted

cost

Capital cost 608,611 1 608,611

1 24,539

24,539

2 26,076

0.909

23,703

3 27,780

0.826

22,946

4 29,677

0.751

22,287

5 31,798

0.683

21,718

6 34,181

0.621

21,227

7 36,870

0.564

20,795

8 39,917

0.513

20,478

9 43,386

0.467

20,261

10 47,350

0.424

20,076

Total Life Cycle Cost 826,643

A2‐7



ELECTRIC VEHICLE

a) Capital Cost

1

CapitalCost Cost

1.1

Purchaseprice

1.1.1

inUSD 27,200

1.1.2

inBirr 489,600

2

Costoffreight,insuranceandporthandling

2.1

inUSD 2,500

2.2

inBirr 45,000

2.3

TotalCIFcost

2.3.1

inUSD 29,700

2.3.2

inBirr 534,600

3

Tax(inBirr)

3.1 Duty(35%ofCIF) 187,110

3.2 Excise(50%ofCIF+Duty) 360,855

3.3 SurTax(10%ofCIF+excise+duty) 108,257

3.4 VAT(15%ofCIF+excise+duty+surtax) 178,623

 Totaltax 834,845

4 Totalcapitalcost(Birr)  1,369,445

5 Salvagevalue(Birr) 456,482

6 Grandtotalcapitalcost(Birr) 912,963

A2‐8



b) Operating cost

Sr.

No Description

Year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1 Energy

1.1 Mileage travelled per year 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

1.2 Energy consumption ( kwh/km ) 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.215

1.3

Amount of energy required

(kwh/annum) 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160 5,160

1.4 Unit Cost of energy ( Birr/ per kwh) 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

Annual Cost of energy (in Birr) 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354 3,354

2 Lubricant

2.1 Mileage travelled per year 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

2.2

Number of Lubricant change

( every 5000 km) 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80

2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg) 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40 14.40

2.4

Average Unit cost of lubricant

( per kg) 100 105 110 116 122 128 134 141 148 155

Annual Cost of Lubricant (in

Birr) 1,440 1,512 1,588 1,667 1,750 1,838 1,930 2,026 2,128 2,234

3 Tyre (every 24,000 km) 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900

4 Battery ( every 160,000 km) 461,953

5 Maintenance and Repair Costs 1,500 1,800 2,160 2,592 3,110 3,732 4,479 5,375 6,450 7,740

Vehicle registration and insurance

cost 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Total operating cost 8,194 8,566 9,002 9,513 10,115 10,824 473,616 12,655 13,831 15,228

A2‐9



c) Life Cycle Cost 

Year

Actual

cost

Discounting

Factor

(10%)

Discounted

cost

Capital cost 912,963 1 912,963

1 8,194

8,194

2 8,566

0.909

7,786

3 9,002

0.826

7,435

4 9,513

0.751

7,144

5 10,115

0.683

6,908

6 10,824

0.621

6,722

7 473,616

0.564

267,119

8 12,655

0.513

6,492

9 13,831

0.467

6,459

10 15,228

0.424

6,456

Total Life Cycle Cost 1,243,680

APPENDIX 3: NEW AND SECOND VEHICLES LIFE COST ANALYSIS

A2.1 New Vehicle

Capital Cost

Birr

1.1

Purchase price

600,000

1.2

Total capital cost ( Birr)

600,000

1.3

Salvage value (Birr)

200,000

1.4

Grand total capital cost (Birr)

400,000

Total

Operating cost

2.1

Fuel

2.1.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.1.2

Fuel consumption ( per 100 km)

6.00

2.1.3

Amount of fuel required

(lit/annum)

1,440

2.14

Unit Cost of fuel ( per lit)

18.88

20.77

22.84

25.13

27.64

30.41

33.45

36.79

40.47

44.52

Annual Cost of fuel (in Birr)

27,187

29,906

32,897

36,186

39,805

43,785

48,164

52,980

58,278

64,106

433,294

2.2

Lubricant

2.2.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.2.2

Number of Lubricant change

( every 4000 km)

2.2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg)

2.2.4

Averege Unit cost of lubricant (

per kg)

100

105

110

116

122

128

134

141

148

155

Annual Cost of Lubricant (in

Birr)

1,920

3,024

3,175

3,334

3,501

3,676

3,859

4,052

4,255

4,468

35,264

2.3

Tyre and battery (every 24,000

km)

1,800

18,000

2.4

Maintenance and Repair Costs

3,000

3,300

3,630

3,993

4,392

4,832

5,315

5,846

6,431

7,074

47,812

2.5

Vehicle registration and

insurance cost

1,000

10,000

Total operating cost

34,907

39,030

42,502

46,313

50,498

55,092

60,138

65,679

71,764

78,448

544,371

3. Life Cycle Cost

Year

Actual cost

Discounting

Factor (10%)

Discounted

cost

Capital cost

400,000

1 34,907

34,907

39,030

0.909

35,478

42,502

0.826

35,106

46,313

0.751

34,781

5 50,498

0.683

34,490

55,092

0.621

34,212

60,138

0.564

33,918

65,679

0.513

33,693

9 71,764

0.467

33,514

78,448

0.424

33,262

Total Life Cycle Cost

743,362

A2.2 Five Year Old Vehicle

Capital Cost

1.1 Purchase price

480,000

1.2

Total capital cost ( Birr)

480,000

1.3

Salvage value (Birr)

160,000

1.4

Grand total capital cost (Birr)

320,000

Total

Operating cost

2.1

Fuel

2.1.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.1.2

Fuel consumption ( per 100 km)

7.00

2.1.3

Amount of fuel required

(lit/annum)

1,680

2.14

Unit Cost of fuel ( per lit)

18.88

20.77

22.84

25.13

27.64

30.41

33.45

36.79

40.47

44.52

Annual Cost of fuel (in Birr)

31,718

34,890

38,379

42,217

46,439

51,083

56,191

61,810

67,991

74,790

505,510

2.2

Lubricant

2.2.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.2.2

Number of Lubricant change

( every 4000 km)

2.2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg)

2.2.4

Averege Unit cost of lubricant (

per kg)

100

105

110

116

122

128

134

141

148

155

Annual Cost of Lubricant (in

Birr)

1,920

3,024

3,175

3,334

3,501

3,676

3,859

4,052

4,255

4,468

35,264

2.3

Tyre and battery (every 24,000

km)

1,800

18,000

2.4

Maintenance and Repair Costs

4,392

4,832

5,315

5,846

6,431

7,074

7,781

8,559

9,415

10,357

70,002

2.5

Vehicle registration and

insurance cost

1,000

10,000

Total operating cost

40,831

45,546

49,669

54,197

59,170

64,632

70,632

77,222

84,462

92,415

638,776

Life Cycle Cost

Year Actual cost

Discounting

Factor (10%)

Discounted

cost

Capital cost

320,000

40,831

2 45,546

0.909

41,401

49,669

0.826

41,027

54,197

0.751

40,702

59,170

0.683

40,413

6 64,632

0.621

40,137

70,632

0.564

39,836

77,222

0.513

39,615

84,462

0.467

39,444

10 92,415

0.424

39,184

Total Life Cycle Cost

722,589

A3.3 Ten Year Old Vehicle

Capital Cost

1.1 Purchase price

1.2

Total capital cost ( Birr)

325,000

1.3

Salvage value (Birr)

108,333

1.4

Grand total capital cost (Birr)

216,667

Total

Operating cost

2.1

Fuel

2.1.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.1.2

Fuel consumption ( per 100

km)

8.50

2.1.3

Amount of fuel required

(lit/annum)

2,040

2.14

Unit Cost of fuel ( per lit)

18.88

20.77

22.84

25.13

27.64

30.41

33.45

36.79

40.47

44.52

Annual Cost of fuel (in

Birr)

38,515

42,367

46,603

51,264

56,390

62,029

68,232

75,055

82,561

90,817

613,833

2.2

Lubricant

2.2.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.2.2

Number of Lubricant change

( every 3,333 km)

2.2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg)

2.2.4

Averege Unit cost of

lubricant ( per kg)

100

105

110

116

122

128

134

141

148

155

Annual Cost of Lubricant

(in Birr)

1,920

2,016

2,117

2,223

2,334

2,450

2,573

2,702

2,837

2,979

24,150

2.3

Tyre and battery (every

24,000 km)

1,800

18,000

2.4

Maintenance and Repair

Costs

7,074

7,781

8,559

9,415

10,357

11,392

12,532

13,785

15,163

16,680

112,739

2.5

Vehicle registration and

insurance cost

1,000

10,000

Total operating cost

50,309

54,964

60,080

65,702

71,881

78,672

86,137

94,342

103,361

113,275

778,721

Life Cycle Cost

Year

Actual cost

Discounting

Factor (10%)

Discounted

cost

Capital cost

216,667

1 50,309

50,309

54,964

0.909

49,962

60,080

0.826

49,626

65,702

0.751

49,342

5 71,881

0.683

49,095

78,672

0.621

48,855

86,137

0.564

48,581

94,342

0.513

48,397

9 103,361

0.467

48,270

113,275

0.424

48,029

Total Life Cycle Cost

707,132

A2.4 Twenty Year Old Vehicle

Capital Cost

1.1

Purchase price

280,000

1.2

Total capital cost ( Birr)

280,000

1.3 Salvage value (Birr)

70,000

1.4

Grand total capital cost (Birr)

210,000

Total

Operating cost

2.1

Fuel

2.1.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.1.2

Fuel consumption ( per 100

km)

10.00

2.1.3

Amount of fuel required

(lit/annum)

2,400

2.14

Unit Cost of fuel ( per lit)

18.88

20.77

22.84

25.13

27.64

30.41

33.45

36.79

40.47

44.52

Annual Cost of fuel (in

Birr)

45,312

49,843

54,828

60,310

66,341

72,975

80,273

88,300

97,130

106,843

722,157

2.2

Lubricant

2.2.1

Mileage travelled per year

24,000

2.2.2

Number of Lubricant change

( every 3,333 km)

2.2.3

Average Amount of lubricant

required (kg)

2.2.4

Averege Unit cost of

lubricant ( per kg)

100

105

110

116

122

128

134

141

148

155

Annual Cost of Lubricant

(in Birr)

1,920

2,016

2,117

2,223

2,334

2,450

2,573

2,702

2,837

2,979

24,150

2.3

Tyre and battery (every

24,000 km)

1,800

18,000

2.4

Maintenance and Repair

Costs

15,163

16,680

18,348

20,182

22,201

24,421

26,863

29,549

32,504

35,755

241,666

2.5

Vehicle registration and

insurance cost

1,000

10,000

Total operating cost

65,195

71,339

78,092

85,515

93,676

102,647

112,509

123,351

135,271

148,376

1,015,972

Life Cycle Cost

Year

Actual cost

Discounting

Factor (10%)

Discounted

cost

Capital cost 210,000 1 210,000

65,195

71,339

0.909

64,847

78,092

0.826

64,504

4 85,515

0.751

64,222

93,676

0.683

63,981

102,647

0.621

63,744

112,509

0.564

63,455

8 123,351

0.513

63,279

135,271

0.467

63,172

148,376

0.424

62,912

Total Life Cycle Cost

849,310